I wanted to bring up, again, the matter of how/when the SELL Dividend will/won't be paid. At the base level, a SELL dividend is paid when there is excess capital in the fund (over 200 Days of Dividends at current rate).
A while ago, I calculated that the Difficulty needs to increase about 6.5% for a SELL Dividend to be paid - this is because, at any lower Difficulty increase, capital would be paid out faster as MINE dividends than the Difficulty is increasing.
This is still correct -
but it assumes that the Reserve in the previous Period is not deficient. Simply, it assumes that the Period started with a sufficient Reserve (at least 200 Days of Dividends on hand).
The Fund began this period
deficient - there was only capital enough for ~193 days of MINE dividends, not 200 or more, and that's why there was no SELL dividend. For this reason, the Difficulty needs to increase more than 6.5%
this Period for a SELL dividend to be paid due to the fact that the fund was already deficient from the get-go.
It looks to be about 11.5% is the needed Difficulty increase for this period for a SELL dividend to be issued. For any period that begins deficient (with less than 200 Days of capital on hand), this will vary depending on how much of a deficit there is.
I just wanted to clarify this, as I told jjdub7 that the 6.5% was a constant for each period - it still is, but only if the Period doesn't begin with a deficit.
So that I'm totally clear here - I have not changed anything; this is BDD functioning exactly as it should. This is what is considered Difficulty stagnation - the Difficulty is literally increasing, but not enough to outpace the MINE dividends being paid (at the moment).
This a great time to bring up jjdub7's comment from this past week - there is a minimum increase required in the Difficulty for a SELL dividend to be paid. Right now, the Difficulty increase percentage for this period has been hovering around 5% - 6%, below the ~6.5% required for any SELL dividend to be paid.
Difficulty looks like it will change Saturday afternoon, so the report would be issued on Sunday.
For those of you that don't have one yet, my favorite site for tacking the Difficulty is
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty2070 - if I remember correctly, there was a minimum difficulty bump in order for SELL to be paid. It was around 6.5% the last time the topic was covered. Is this a constant minimum percentage inherent to your model or does it change as we move between rounds? Thanks as always, man.
No problem - yes, this is a constant figure for any Period, not any specific one. It just has to do with the number of daily dividend payments made versus the number of days in the period.
Each day pays out 1 out of 200 Days worth of the dividend Reserve. 1 / 200 = .005 (or .5%).
13 Days of dividends = 13 * .5% = 6.5%. This seems to be the mathematical 'sweet spot' - just shy of 14 days, which is of course the 'Standard' Difficulty period time period (no increase/no decrease).
So, if you're paying out .5% per day, the difficulty needs to increase by at least .5% per day, otherwise the Reserve is decreasing faster than difficulty is increasing. Hope this helps-
