Period 15, Day 3 Report - July 16, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 339.85017667
Total Units: 12353
NAV/U: BTC 0.02751155
Topic: [Havelock] Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative (BDD) - page 62. (Read 290235 times)
But WHY now APY for B.MINE is computed with another formula ?!?
You can't.Just don't.
That cat was really, really dead, Schrodinger be damned.
Yes, I can I can sell You my last B.SELL, which I kept as souvenir 2014-07-12 And the Black Swan is not yet really, really dead, Taleb be damned But WHY now APY for B.MINE is computed with another formula ?!?
You can't.Just don't.
Even worse was the dead cat bounce on COG after it was announced that it was worthless and delisted. That cat was really, really dead, Schrodinger be damned.
But WHY now APY for B.MINE is computed with another formula ?!?
You can't.Just don't.
Period 15, Day 2 Report - July 15, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 341.29241060
Total Units: 12347
NAV/U: BTC 0.02764172
Balance Post Divs: BTC 341.29241060
Total Units: 12347
NAV/U: BTC 0.02764172
You have different definitions for those terms than havelock does, and that's your problem not theirs.
Havelock was not designed for these types of things, it was designed for regular stocks, and it is designed for those. The last dividend/next dividend/annual yield don't really apply to b.mine and b.sell because the point of those wasn't to buy something at the ipo and own part of a company, they are something else that is completely different. B.Sell having no dividend last period does not change the fact that it had a yield previously. mine having a bigger payout than previously last period doesn't change how it performed in the past, and none of those facts have any real bearing on what the hell is going to happen next time.
Havelock was not designed for these types of things, it was designed for regular stocks, and it is designed for those. The last dividend/next dividend/annual yield don't really apply to b.mine and b.sell because the point of those wasn't to buy something at the ipo and own part of a company, they are something else that is completely different. B.Sell having no dividend last period does not change the fact that it had a yield previously. mine having a bigger payout than previously last period doesn't change how it performed in the past, and none of those facts have any real bearing on what the hell is going to happen next time.
I know and understand all that since January 25, 2014, and finance since 1982.
But I try to explain You something else. Basta. I stop here.
Korbman did a great analysis of how HL calculates this Yield but again, yes, these calculations are misleading when applied to B.SELL and B.MINE and, also, I have no control over them.
How is the Annual Yield on Havelock for these funds calculated?
That's a great question, I'm not sure actually. [...]
If I remember correctly, it's something like this:
A = Currently price per unit
B = Last Dividend per unit
C = How often after dividends paid. 12 = once per month, 365 = once per day, 52 = once per week, etc.
[(B * C) / A] * 100 = APY in %
For example, with B.MINE:
[(0.00041088 * 365) / 0.032] * 100 = 468.66%
With AM1:
[(0.000065 * 52) / 0.60] * 100 = 0.5633%
In reality, it sort of breaks based on how Havelock determines the timeframe. For me, paying every 2 weeks means 26 periods...an APY of about 43.3% at current prices...but for whatever reason Havelock calculates it as if it were only 12 periods per year.
And for the Difficulty Derivative, it's even more skewed since the overall timeframe of the asset doesn't reach one year anyway.
Yes, I tried to show you exactly that !
[(B * C) / A] * 100 = APY in % is OK, for the short period between Dificulty changes.
So you can compare easily with other funds, knowing this is an approximation, for the short time frame (12 days).
And APY was computed using this formula since Jul 12 2014.
But WHY now APY is computed with other formula ?!?
I'm not sure, to be honest - that's really a HL question. I'm not overly concerned about this because, in any case, this calculation is going to be misleading for MINE and SELL - I'd prefer it not be there at all, but I've done all that I can for it.
You have different definitions for those terms than havelock does, and that's your problem not theirs.
Havelock was not designed for these types of things, it was designed for regular stocks, and it is designed for those. The last dividend/next dividend/annual yield don't really apply to b.mine and b.sell because the point of those wasn't to buy something at the ipo and own part of a company, they are something else that is completely different. B.Sell having no dividend last period does not change the fact that it had a yield previously. mine having a bigger payout than previously last period doesn't change how it performed in the past, and none of those facts have any real bearing on what the hell is going to happen next time.
Havelock was not designed for these types of things, it was designed for regular stocks, and it is designed for those. The last dividend/next dividend/annual yield don't really apply to b.mine and b.sell because the point of those wasn't to buy something at the ipo and own part of a company, they are something else that is completely different. B.Sell having no dividend last period does not change the fact that it had a yield previously. mine having a bigger payout than previously last period doesn't change how it performed in the past, and none of those facts have any real bearing on what the hell is going to happen next time.
I know and understand all that since January 25, 2014, and finance since 1982.
But I try to explain You something else. Basta. I stop here.
Korbman did a great analysis of how HL calculates this Yield but again, yes, these calculations are misleading when applied to B.SELL and B.MINE and, also, I have no control over them.
How is the Annual Yield on Havelock for these funds calculated?
That's a great question, I'm not sure actually. [...]
If I remember correctly, it's something like this:
A = Currently price per unit
B = Last Dividend per unit
C = How often after dividends paid. 12 = once per month, 365 = once per day, 52 = once per week, etc.
[(B * C) / A] * 100 = APY in %
For example, with B.MINE:
[(0.00041088 * 365) / 0.032] * 100 = 468.66%
With AM1:
[(0.000065 * 52) / 0.60] * 100 = 0.5633%
In reality, it sort of breaks based on how Havelock determines the timeframe. For me, paying every 2 weeks means 26 periods...an APY of about 43.3% at current prices...but for whatever reason Havelock calculates it as if it were only 12 periods per year.
And for the Difficulty Derivative, it's even more skewed since the overall timeframe of the asset doesn't reach one year anyway.
Yes, I tried to show you exactly that !
[(B * C) / A] * 100 = APY in % is OK, for the short period between Dificulty changes.
So you can compare easily with other funds, knowing this is an approximation, for the short time frame (12 days).
And APY was computed using this formula until Jul 12 2014.
But WHY now APY for B.MINE is computed with another formula ?!?
You have different definitions for those terms than havelock does, and that's your problem not theirs.
Havelock was not designed for these types of things, it was designed for regular stocks, and it is designed for those. The last dividend/next dividend/annual yield don't really apply to b.mine and b.sell because the point of those wasn't to buy something at the ipo and own part of a company, they are something else that is completely different. B.Sell having no dividend last period does not change the fact that it had a yield previously. mine having a bigger payout than previously last period doesn't change how it performed in the past, and none of those facts have any real bearing on what the hell is going to happen next time.
Havelock was not designed for these types of things, it was designed for regular stocks, and it is designed for those. The last dividend/next dividend/annual yield don't really apply to b.mine and b.sell because the point of those wasn't to buy something at the ipo and own part of a company, they are something else that is completely different. B.Sell having no dividend last period does not change the fact that it had a yield previously. mine having a bigger payout than previously last period doesn't change how it performed in the past, and none of those facts have any real bearing on what the hell is going to happen next time.
I know and understand all that since January 25, 2014, and finance since 1982.
But I try to explain You something else. Basta. I stop here.
Korbman did a great analysis of how HL calculates this Yield but again, yes, these calculations are misleading when applied to B.SELL and B.MINE and, also, I have no control over them.
How is the Annual Yield on Havelock for these funds calculated?
That's a great question, I'm not sure actually. [...]
If I remember correctly, it's something like this:
A = Currently price per unit
B = Last Dividend per unit
C = How often after dividends paid. 12 = once per month, 365 = once per day, 52 = once per week, etc.
[(B * C) / A] * 100 = APY in %
For example, with B.MINE:
[(0.00041088 * 365) / 0.032] * 100 = 468.66%
With AM1:
[(0.000065 * 52) / 0.60] * 100 = 0.5633%
In reality, it sort of breaks based on how Havelock determines the timeframe. For me, paying every 2 weeks means 26 periods...an APY of about 43.3% at current prices...but for whatever reason Havelock calculates it as if it were only 12 periods per year.
And for the Difficulty Derivative, it's even more skewed since the overall timeframe of the asset doesn't reach one year anyway.
You have different definitions for those terms than havelock does, and that's your problem not theirs.
Havelock was not designed for these types of things, it was designed for regular stocks, and it is designed for those. The last dividend/next dividend/annual yield don't really apply to b.mine and b.sell because the point of those wasn't to buy something at the ipo and own part of a company, they are something else that is completely different. B.Sell having no dividend last period does not change the fact that it had a yield previously. mine having a bigger payout than previously last period doesn't change how it performed in the past, and none of those facts have any real bearing on what the hell is going to happen next time.
Havelock was not designed for these types of things, it was designed for regular stocks, and it is designed for those. The last dividend/next dividend/annual yield don't really apply to b.mine and b.sell because the point of those wasn't to buy something at the ipo and own part of a company, they are something else that is completely different. B.Sell having no dividend last period does not change the fact that it had a yield previously. mine having a bigger payout than previously last period doesn't change how it performed in the past, and none of those facts have any real bearing on what the hell is going to happen next time.
I know and understand all that since January 25, 2014, and finance since 1982.
But I try to explain You something else. Basta. I stop here.
You have different definitions for those terms than havelock does, and that's your problem not theirs.
Havelock was not designed for these types of things, it was designed for regular stocks, and it is designed for those. The last dividend/next dividend/annual yield don't really apply to b.mine and b.sell because the point of those wasn't to buy something at the ipo and own part of a company, they are something else that is completely different. B.Sell having no dividend last period does not change the fact that it had a yield previously. mine having a bigger payout than previously last period doesn't change how it performed in the past, and none of those facts have any real bearing on what the hell is going to happen next time.
Havelock was not designed for these types of things, it was designed for regular stocks, and it is designed for those. The last dividend/next dividend/annual yield don't really apply to b.mine and b.sell because the point of those wasn't to buy something at the ipo and own part of a company, they are something else that is completely different. B.Sell having no dividend last period does not change the fact that it had a yield previously. mine having a bigger payout than previously last period doesn't change how it performed in the past, and none of those facts have any real bearing on what the hell is going to happen next time.
Correct, the system just reported the last dividend, so that's still accurate. The Annual Yield, which I've asked Havelock to consider taking down, is still accurate for the math that HL uses- however, it's very misleading in this instance because a consistently falling price of MINE/SELL will always make the AY look sky-high, when it really won't be.
As I understand, there is an error for B.MINE in the dashboard "All Funds".
Column "Annual Yield" for B.MINE shows 86.33% for Price = ฿0.0168 and daily dividend 0.00014504 !!!
IMHO, "Annual Yield" for B.MINE is more than 300% and not 86.33%!
IMHO, "Annual Yield" for B.SELL was 0% for last and may be again 0% for the current period.
Am I wrong ? 0.00014504/0.0168*100*365.25 = 315.320325
P.S. Difficulty increment considered 0%
Correct, the system just reported the last dividend, so that's still accurate. The Annual Yield, which I've asked Havelock to consider taking down, is still accurate for the math that HL uses- however, it's very misleading in this instance because a consistently falling price of MINE/SELL will always make the AY look sky-high, when it really won't be.
There is misleading information for B.MINE and B.SELL in the dashboard "All Funds".
The "Last Dividend" column must indicate last period dividend, so for B.SELL must be "None" and "Annual Yield" must be empty (unknown) and not 475.35% !!!
There is another error now, for B.MINE You indicate
86.33% for Price = ฿0.0168 and daily dividend 0.00014504 !!!
It is more than 315% !
How are calculated this 475.35% for B.SELL and 86.33% B.MINE ?!?
Do realize that these are all Havelock conventions, so your issues are with them, not me. Also, you assume that "The "Last Dividend" column must indicate last period dividend". This, however, is not necessarily true.
Havelock literally tracks the 'Last Dividend' and their measure of this is true. In addition, by HL's measure, "Annual Yield" must be empty (unknown)" is correct- but, again, this is their measure, not mine.
Period 15, Day 1 Report - July 14, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 343.11079646
Total Units: 12348
NAV/U: BTC 0.02778675
Balance Post Divs: BTC 343.11079646
Total Units: 12348
NAV/U: BTC 0.02778675
Dear "twentyseventy",
Thank you for this funny funds - B.EXCH, B.MINE, B.SELL It's better than having mining rigs
But why "Last Dividend" for B.SELL is indicating now ฿0.0056 and not "None"
and "Annual Yield" 1147.64% and is not ?
There wasn't a 7/13 dividend for B.SELL! It was none, it just isn't listed probably because there is nothing to list. Thank you for this funny funds - B.EXCH, B.MINE, B.SELL
It's better than having mining rigs But why "Last Dividend" for B.SELL is indicating now ฿0.0056 and not "None"
and "Annual Yield" 1147.64% and is not
I'm expecting we will have a dividend this next time around, but probably not as huge as the 0.0056 one.
Correct, the system just reported the last dividend, so that's still accurate. The Annual Yield, which I've asked Havelock to consider taking down, is still accurate for the math that HL uses- however, it's very misleading in this instance because a consistently falling price of MINE/SELL will always make the AY look sky-high, when it really won't be.
Dear "twentyseventy",
Thank you for this funny funds - B.EXCH, B.MINE, B.SELL It's better than having mining rigs
But why "Last Dividend" for B.SELL is indicating now ฿0.0056 and not "None"
and "Annual Yield" 1147.64% and is not ?
There wasn't a 7/13 dividend for B.SELL! It was none, it just isn't listed probably because there is nothing to list. Thank you for this funny funds - B.EXCH, B.MINE, B.SELL
It's better than having mining rigs But why "Last Dividend" for B.SELL is indicating now ฿0.0056 and not "None"
and "Annual Yield" 1147.64% and is not
I'm expecting we will have a dividend this next time around, but probably not as huge as the 0.0056 one.
What's wrong with B.EXCH price? It must be NAV/U * 1,03 = 0,02890175
You are correct! I apologize for the oversight; my sheet was calculating EXCH price as The Reserve * 1.03 which, up until this period, would have been the same as the new NAV/U * 1.03.
However, with there being no SELL Dividend this time (due to the deficient Reserve), these amounts are now divergent.
There have been 256 units sold today at this higher price. I will go through tonight and refund the difference to the four users who purchased EXCH units at this price.
Thanks for pointing that out!
What's wrong with B.EXCH price? It must be NAV/U * 1,03 = 0,02890175
Period 15, Day 0 Report - July 13, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 325.48790820
Total Units: 11660
NAV/U: BTC 0.02791491
Balance Post Divs: BTC 325.48790820
Total Units: 11660
NAV/U: BTC 0.02791491
Period 14 End Report - July 13, 2014
Previous Units 9951
EXCH Sold 2475
Less Buybacks 766
New Total Units 11660
Previous Balance 297.55487733
Price per EXCH 0.03079906
Gross Sales of EXCH 76.22767350
Less Fees 0.30491071
Less Dividends 23.64485699
Less Buybacks 21.17550316
Less Mgmt Fee 1.47820537
Net Balance 327.17907460
End of Period NAV/U 0.02805995
New Difficulty 17,336,316,979
New Daily Dividend 0.00014504
New Reserve per Unit 0.02900800
NAV/U Less New Reserve = 0.02805995 - 0.02900800 = -0.00094805
SELL Dividend None (Because NAV/U is less than the new Reserve (200 Days of Dividends))
You'll notice that I calculate the new Dividend to eight digits and multiply that times 200 Days to get the new Reserve. Those of you that did your own calculations may come up with a slightly different number if you chose not to round or to round elsewhere.
New EXCH Sales Price0.02987824 0.02890175
Previous Units 9951
EXCH Sold 2475
Less Buybacks 766
New Total Units 11660
Previous Balance 297.55487733
Price per EXCH 0.03079906
Gross Sales of EXCH 76.22767350
Less Fees 0.30491071
Less Dividends 23.64485699
Less Buybacks 21.17550316
Less Mgmt Fee 1.47820537
Net Balance 327.17907460
End of Period NAV/U 0.02805995
New Difficulty 17,336,316,979
New Daily Dividend 0.00014504
New Reserve per Unit 0.02900800
NAV/U Less New Reserve = 0.02805995 - 0.02900800 = -0.00094805
SELL Dividend None (Because NAV/U is less than the new Reserve (200 Days of Dividends))
You'll notice that I calculate the new Dividend to eight digits and multiply that times 200 Days to get the new Reserve. Those of you that did your own calculations may come up with a slightly different number if you chose not to round or to round elsewhere.
New EXCH Sales Price
Period 14, Day 13 Report - July 12, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 309.19238648
Total Units: 11062
NAV/U: BTC 0.02795085
Right now, Difficulty is set to change in about six hours, ~7PM ET. The change is estimated to be 3% - 4%, below the ~6.5% required to generate excess capital to be paid out to SELL.
So, I will issue the report tomorrow at Noon, like normal, and the MINE dividend will change, but SELL will not be issued a dividend (barring some major increase in the next six hours).
Just wanted to make this clear so that there's no confusion tomorrow.
Balance Post Divs: BTC 309.19238648
Total Units: 11062
NAV/U: BTC 0.02795085
Right now, Difficulty is set to change in about six hours, ~7PM ET. The change is estimated to be 3% - 4%, below the ~6.5% required to generate excess capital to be paid out to SELL.
So, I will issue the report tomorrow at Noon, like normal, and the MINE dividend will change, but SELL will not be issued a dividend (barring some major increase in the next six hours).
Just wanted to make this clear so that there's no confusion tomorrow.
B.Sell is way down pushing the value of B.Mine way up. Seems like the market clearly knows there isn't any B.Sell dividend this time.
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