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Topic: [Havelock] Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative (BDD) - page 64. (Read 290235 times)

hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 510
Right now it isn't looking like we are going to see such a huge difficulty increase this next time.   Just maybe it is a good time to own B.Mine.    However the 200 day reserve is now ~297.5 BTC.   So it seems we might be getting close to the end game?

EDIT: Looking back at pass periods I don't think we are that close to the end game.   I was confused how it works.    If the difficulty leveled out, then yes we might move fast towards an end game, but that isn't likely to happen over 200 days.   In that case the dividends just keep paying out until the funds are exhausted.

Don't kid yourself...3 PH doesn't just disappear from the network, and there's more coming from wherever that last 20PH just jumped out.  More likely is a big operation took down part of their new farm for configuration before they jumped into round 2 here.

On second thought, I dunno...I figured we would have seen a recovery to the 125-140 PH/s range on the network by now.  Its entirely possible that the last increase was fueled by added equipment plus a luck boom, but still, idk, something doesn't feel right here.
Maybe it was burn-in by some ASIC manufacture.   I fully expect the ramp up to continue for a while yet.  But we should start to see more periods that are flatter.   The scale of bitcoin mining has gotten too large at some point it will start to be limited.   However it could be that we are long ways away from the peak mining level.
hero member
Activity: 938
Merit: 502
Right now it isn't looking like we are going to see such a huge difficulty increase this next time.   Just maybe it is a good time to own B.Mine.    However the 200 day reserve is now ~297.5 BTC.   So it seems we might be getting close to the end game?

EDIT: Looking back at pass periods I don't think we are that close to the end game.   I was confused how it works.    If the difficulty leveled out, then yes we might move fast towards an end game, but that isn't likely to happen over 200 days.   In that case the dividends just keep paying out until the funds are exhausted.

Don't kid yourself...3 PH doesn't just disappear from the network, and there's more coming from wherever that last 20PH just jumped out.  More likely is a big operation took down part of their new farm for configuration before they jumped into round 2 here.

On second thought, I dunno...I figured we would have seen a recovery to the 125-140 PH/s range on the network by now.  Its entirely possible that the last increase was fueled by added equipment plus a luck boom, but still, idk, something doesn't feel right here.
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
Period 14, Day 2 Report - July 1, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 327.38472377

Total Units: 11101

NAV/U: BTC 0.02949146
hero member
Activity: 938
Merit: 502
Right now it isn't looking like we are going to see such a huge difficulty increase this next time.   Just maybe it is a good time to own B.Mine.    However the 200 day reserve is now ~297.5 BTC.   So it seems we might be getting close to the end game?

EDIT: Looking back at pass periods I don't think we are that close to the end game.   I was confused how it works.    If the difficulty leveled out, then yes we might move fast towards an end game, but that isn't likely to happen over 200 days.   In that case the dividends just keep paying out until the funds are exhausted.

Don't kid yourself...3 PH doesn't just disappear from the network, and there's more coming from wherever that last 20PH just jumped out.  More likely is a big operation took down part of their new farm for configuration before they jumped into round 2 here.
hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 510
Right now it isn't looking like we are going to see such a huge difficulty increase this next time.   Just maybe it is a good time to own B.Mine.    However the 200 day reserve is now ~297.5 BTC.   So it seems we might be getting close to the end game?

EDIT: Looking back at pass periods I don't think we are that close to the end game.   I was confused how it works.    If the difficulty leveled out, then yes we might move fast towards an end game, but that isn't likely to happen over 200 days.   In that case the dividends just keep paying out until the funds are exhausted.
hero member
Activity: 938
Merit: 502
Smiley The life is not static Smiley

P.S. Thank's to "jjdub7" and "ZephramC" for their interventions.
I had read their last posts and appreciate their intelligence Smiley

 Cheesy gotta be careful with derivatives, both here and in the fiat markets.  they're a fast-paced game.

Edit: And yeah, that's part of it too is that you'll have to project out on the life of the asset as well.
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
Forgot to schedule the div for today, but it's up now and have scheduled for the rest of the week as well. Still catching up from vacation  Smiley

MINE dividend will be issued at 1PM most likely, the next time that the script runs.

Period 14, Day 1 Report - June 30, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 319.47968634

Total Units: 10783

NAV/U: BTC 0.02962808

EDIT:

I have removed the EXCH ask for now, as any new units of EXCH would receive MINE units that will now be paid the dividend (which they should not be).

Only one has been sold in the last few minutes, so I'll cover the dividend payment for that one share. EXCH ask will be put back up once the MINE dividend is issued.
hero member
Activity: 938
Merit: 502
If you buy B.SELL today (price now is 0.02438990 BTC),
you shall receive today a divident of more than 0.0052 BTC
Smiley i.e. +21.32% for a day Smiley
then you can send me some mBTC at: 1NUYC1Yn6D5QnbdJhrnfggrgMr9MxvZeHV
Nice idea. However you will end with B.SELL valued about 0,01919 BTC (0.02439-0.0052) tomorrow.
Read the prospectus.
Smiley I read much, so my book price for all my B.SELL is 0.02 Smiley

So, essentially, you're anticipating that all else equal, difficulty will rise >67% over the life of the asset?
hero member
Activity: 938
Merit: 502
If you buy B.SELL today (price now is 0.02438990 BTC),
you shall receive today a divident of more than 0.0052 BTC
Smiley i.e. +21.32% for a day Smiley
then you can send me some mBTC at: 1NUYC1Yn6D5QnbdJhrnfggrgMr9MxvZeHV
Nice idea. However you will end with B.SELL valued about 0,01919 BTC (0.02439-0.0052) tomorrow.

Smiley No, I shall end with B.SELL valued more than Huh tomorrow Smiley

P.S. Edited 21:34 GMT

Read the prospectus.
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
Period 14, Day 0 Report - June 29, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 296.06454723

Total Units: 9951

NAV/U: BTC 0.02975224
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
Thanks, Zephram. Divs are scheduled to go out on the hour; hopefully it will go off without a hitch like normal.

Period 13 End Report - June 29, 2014


Previous Units              9095
EXCH Sold                   1196
Less Buybacks              340
New Total Units            9951

Previous Balance          339.73469439
Price per EXCH             0.03847462
Gross Sales of EXCH      46.01564552

Less Fees                    0.18406268
Less Dividends              19.42426677
Less Buybacks              12.32408540
Less Mgmt Fee              0.91906858
Net Balance                  352.89885648

End of Period NAV/U     0.03546365

New Difficulty                  16,818,461,371
New Daily Dividend         0.00014951
New Reserve per Unit        0.02990200

NAV/U Less New Reserve = 0.03546365 - 0.02990200 = 0.00556165

SELL Dividend                 0.00556165

You'll notice that I calculate the new Dividend to eight digits and multiply that times 200 Days to get the new Reserve. Those of you that did your own calculations may come up with a slightly different number if you chose not to round or to round elsewhere.

New EXCH Sales Price          0.03079906
sr. member
Activity: 475
Merit: 255
If you buy B.SELL today (price now is 0.02438990 BTC),
you shall receive today a divident of more than 0.0052 BTC
Smiley i.e. +21.32% for a day Smiley
then you can send me some mBTC at: 1NUYC1Yn6D5QnbdJhrnfggrgMr9MxvZeHV
Nice idea. However you will end with B.SELL valued about 0,01919 BTC (0.02439-0.0052) tomorrow.

Smiley No, I shall end with B.SELL valued more than 0.035 tomorrow Smiley

Hmm, (more than) 0.035 per share tomorrow, you say. So, will you buy 10 B.SELL shares for mere 0.30 (0.030 BTC/share) from me tomorrow? Smiley You will make (more than) +16.66% profit!

...OK, we should probably end this conversation. It is becoming slightly offtopic.
This (from twentyseventy) is important:
Will get home a little earlier than expected, divs will be issued at 8PM ET and EXCH ask will be removed at 7PM. This is just shy of 12 hours notice, so everyone should have time to adjust if needed.
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
If you buy B.SELL today (price now is 0.02438990 BTC),
you shall receive today a divident of more than 0.0052 BTC
Smiley i.e. +21.32% for a day Smiley

then you can send me some mBTC at: 1NUYC1Yn6D5QnbdJhrnfggrgMr9MxvZeHV

Nice idea. However you will end with B.SELL valued about 0,01919 BTC (0.02439-0.0052) tomorrow.

The value of SELL decreases by exactly the amount of dividends paid out; it's hard for some to break the thought that dividends equal profit.

You'll have the BTC in hand, but, yes, your SELL will be less valuable.
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
Will get home a little earlier than expected, divs will be issued at 8PM ET and EXCH ask will be removed at 7PM. This is just shy of 12 hours notice, so everyone should have time to adjust if needed.
hero member
Activity: 938
Merit: 502
If you buy B.SELL today (price now is 0.02438990 BTC),
you shall receive today a divident of more than 0.0052 BTC
Smiley i.e. +21.32% for a day Smiley

then you can send me some mBTC at: 1NUYC1Yn6D5QnbdJhrnfggrgMr9MxvZeHV

You do realize that you're only making money on this asset when you take a position at the beginning of the period right?  Other than trading on variance.
sr. member
Activity: 475
Merit: 255
If you buy B.SELL today (price now is 0.02438990 BTC),
you shall receive today a divident of more than 0.0052 BTC
Smiley i.e. +21.32% for a day Smiley

then you can send me some mBTC at: 1NUYC1Yn6D5QnbdJhrnfggrgMr9MxvZeHV

Nice idea. However you will end with B.SELL valued about 0,01919 BTC (0.02439-0.0052) tomorrow.
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
Period 13, Day 10 Report - June 28, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 342.79665911

Total Units: 9682

NAV/U: BTC 0.03540556

Important note: I'll be traveling all day Sunday, so I won't be able to issue the dividends at 12PM as normally planned. Right now, assuming that the divs do need to be paid on Sunday, I will tentatively schedule the div payment for 10PM Eastern Time on Sunday.

There will be no difference in payment amount or any other effects besides a later payment time. For now, I'll plan to have the EXCH ask up until 9PM ET and allow buy-backs until that time as well. I may decide to change this in the future, but I'll be sure to issue any updates here.
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
Period 13, Day 9 Report - June 27, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 343.89362316

Total Units: 9663

NAV/U: BTC 0.03558870

Important note: As of right now, it looks like the Difficulty increase will happen on Saturday after Noon, meaning that the SELL div will be issued on Sunday. I'll be traveling all day Sunday, so I won't be able to issue the dividends at 12PM as normally planned. Right now, assuming that the divs do need to be paid on Sunday, I will tentatively schedule the div payment for 10PM Eastern Time on Sunday.

There will be no difference in payment amount or any other effects besides a later payment time. For now, I'll plan to have the EXCH ask up until 9PM ET and allow buy-backs until that time as well. I may decide to change this in the future, but I'll be sure to issue any updates here.
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
Period 13, Day 8 Report - June 26, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 344.64887579

Total Units: 9635

NAV/U: BTC 0.03577051

Important note: As of right now, it looks like the Difficulty increase will happen on Saturday after Noon, meaning that the SELL div will be issued on Sunday. I'll be traveling all day Sunday, so I won't be able to issue the dividends at 12PM as normally planned. Right now, assuming that the divs do need to be paid on Sunday, I will tentatively schedule the div payment for 10PM Eastern Time on Sunday.

There will be no difference in payment amount or any other effects besides a later payment time. For now, I'll plan to have the EXCH ask up until 9PM ET and allow buy-backs until that time as well. I may decide to change this in the future, but I'll be sure to issue any updates here.
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
Period 13, Day 7 Report - June 25, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 346.45096083

Total Units: 9635

NAV/U: BTC 0.03595754

Important note: As of right now, it looks like the Difficulty increase will happen on Saturday after Noon, meaning that the SELL div will be issued on Sunday. I'll be traveling all day Sunday, so I won't be able to issue the dividends at 12PM as normally planned. Right now, assuming that the divs do need to be paid on Sunday, I will tentatively schedule the div payment for 10PM Eastern Time.

There will be no difference in payment amount or any other effects besides a later payment time. For now, I'll plan to have the EXCH ask up until 9PM ET and allow buy-backs until that time as well. I may decide to change this in the future, but I'll be sure to issue any updates here.
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