Period 12, Day 5 Report - June 11, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 364.08825554
Total Units: 8766
NAV/U: BTC 0.04153413
Topic: [Havelock] Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative (BDD) - page 66. (Read 290235 times)
Enjoy text-analyzing this post as well. One thing that I do believe that Deprived and I had in common were our above-average writing skills.
Hey all, I've had a few people mention it, [...]
Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level: 7.1
2) I really am Deprived and I spent a year cultivating a forum account to have less experience, less reputation, and less BTC to start a fund. Oh, plus, it's a very realistic forum account where the person seems to only know a little at the beginning and then grows to learn and love BTC and securities. Finally, the alt account is an American, so I have to disguise my spelling and not use all those 'ou' Brit words - like colourful
Quoting this so you don't delete/backpedal later on.
Backpedal? Unless, unbeknownst to me, my whole life lived in America has been a lie, I'm sure that I'm not going to backpedal on being Deprived (a British guy, among other things).
I'm going to go ahead and put this quote in perspective, since it was quoted out of context. I was a bit apprehensive about phrasing it this way, lest you possibly quote this out of context as you just did.
Be sure to note the 'either' / 'or' emphasized here:
Either:
1) I enjoyed DMS, saw an opportunity with Deprived gone to make a name for myself, start my own listing, and make a few BTC, or:
2) I really am Deprived and I spent a year cultivating a forum account to have less experience, less reputation, and less BTC to start a fund. Oh, plus, it's a very realistic forum account where the person seems to only know a little at the beginning and then grows to learn and love BTC and securities. Finally, the alt account is an American, so I have to disguise my spelling and not use all those 'ou' Brit words - like colourful
I believe Occam's Razor applies here. At this point, I'm not sure if you're overestimating me or Deprived.
1) I enjoyed DMS, saw an opportunity with Deprived gone to make a name for myself, start my own listing, and make a few BTC, or:
2) I really am Deprived and I spent a year cultivating a forum account to have less experience, less reputation, and less BTC to start a fund. Oh, plus, it's a very realistic forum account where the person seems to only know a little at the beginning and then grows to learn and love BTC and securities. Finally, the alt account is an American, so I have to disguise my spelling and not use all those 'ou' Brit words - like colourful
I believe Occam's Razor applies here. At this point, I'm not sure if you're overestimating me or Deprived.
To be perfectly and explicitly clear, I am not Deprived and I was merely attempting to bring to light the ridiculousness of Usagi's comments that I could be him.
Enjoy text-analyzing this post as well. One thing that I do believe that Deprived and I had in common were our above-average writing skills.
Hey all, I've had a few people mention it, so I want to reiterate that we are nowhere near the End Game via Increase.
End Game via Increase doesn't trigger until The Reserve (200 Days of Current Dividends) reaches .2mBTC, NOT the daily dividend. This period's Reserve was 0.04277600, far from the .0002 needed to trigger the End Game.
As I've said previously, it will likely be well into 2015 until this happens (if this is how the End Game is triggered).
Looking forward, for the next round, I will probably choose a higher Minimum Reserve to trigger the End Game next time. I think aiming for around a 12 Period Round would be a good target. However, I can't change this now, as it would unfairly cost SELL holders BTC.
For instance, imagine that you hold SELL and you expect the End Game to happen via Increase. You expect to pay out to MINE holders, at the end, .2mBTC. If it were decided now to raise the Minimum Reserve to 1mBTC, or 5mBTC, SELL holders would need to plan to take some of that out of their expected profit.
SELL holders would need to be willing to give up a bit of expected profit to raise the Minimum Reserve; my guess is that they would only do so if they thought that they would make more BTC trading a new Round with higher valued shares.
In addition, the SELL holdings are pretty consolidated, so a few large holders would likely decide the vote, if there were to be a vote on it.
Open to all comments and/or suggestions about it.
Frequency analysisEnd Game via Increase doesn't trigger until The Reserve (200 Days of Current Dividends) reaches .2mBTC, NOT the daily dividend. This period's Reserve was 0.04277600, far from the .0002 needed to trigger the End Game.
As I've said previously, it will likely be well into 2015 until this happens (if this is how the End Game is triggered).
Looking forward, for the next round, I will probably choose a higher Minimum Reserve to trigger the End Game next time. I think aiming for around a 12 Period Round would be a good target. However, I can't change this now, as it would unfairly cost SELL holders BTC.
For instance, imagine that you hold SELL and you expect the End Game to happen via Increase. You expect to pay out to MINE holders, at the end, .2mBTC. If it were decided now to raise the Minimum Reserve to 1mBTC, or 5mBTC, SELL holders would need to plan to take some of that out of their expected profit.
SELL holders would need to be willing to give up a bit of expected profit to raise the Minimum Reserve; my guess is that they would only do so if they thought that they would make more BTC trading a new Round with higher valued shares.
In addition, the SELL holdings are pretty consolidated, so a few large holders would likely decide the vote, if there were to be a vote on it.
Open to all comments and/or suggestions about it.
7 would (2.70%)
6 game (2.32%)
5 holders (1.93%)
5 reserve (1.93%)
5 sell (1.93%)
3 increase (1.16%)
3 round (1.16%)
3 minimum (1.16%)
3 trigger (1.16%)
Word Count (Method A): 273
Word Count (Method B): 270
Word Count (Method C): 272
Syllables (Method A): 338
Syllables (Method B): 369
Syllables (Method C): 378
Syllables (Method D): 371
Polysyllabic Words (Method A): 48
Polysyllabic Words (Method B): 20
Polysyllabic Words Percentage (Method B): 7.35%
Sentences (Method A): 17
Sentences (Method B): 16
Flesch-Kincaid Reading Ease (Method A): 72.27
Flesch-Kincaid Reading Ease (Method B): 74.2
Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level: 7.1
SMOG Index (Method A): 12.73
SMOG Index (Method B): 6.6
Gunning-Fog Score: 9
Coleman-Liau Index: 9
Automated Readability Index (ARI): 6.4
Dale-Chall Readability Score: 4.2
Dale-Chall Difficult Word Count: 57
Spache Readability Score: 5
Spache Difficult Word Count: 48
Length: 1471
Letters: 1116
Average Words per Sentence: 17.00
Average Syllables per Word: 1.36
The plot thickens.
2) I really am Deprived and I spent a year cultivating a forum account to have less experience, less reputation, and less BTC to start a fund. Oh, plus, it's a very realistic forum account where the person seems to only know a little at the beginning and then grows to learn and love BTC and securities. Finally, the alt account is an American, so I have to disguise my spelling and not use all those 'ou' Brit words - like colourful
Quoting this so you don't delete/backpedal later on.
Period 12, Day 4 Report - June 10, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 365.92010010
Total Units: 8765
NAV/U: BTC 0.04174787
Balance Post Divs: BTC 365.92010010
Total Units: 8765
NAV/U: BTC 0.04174787
Hey all, I've had a few people mention it, so I want to reiterate that we are nowhere near the End Game via Increase.
End Game via Increase doesn't trigger until The Reserve (200 Days of Current Dividends) reaches .2mBTC, NOT the daily dividend. This period's Reserve was 0.04277600, far from the .0002 needed to trigger the End Game.
As I've said previously, it will likely be well into 2015 until this happens (if this is how the End Game is triggered).
Looking forward, for the next round, I will probably choose a higher Minimum Reserve to trigger the End Game next time. I think aiming for around a 12 Period Round would be a good target. However, I can't change this now, as it would unfairly cost SELL holders BTC.
For instance, imagine that you hold SELL and you expect the End Game to happen via Increase. You expect to pay out to MINE holders, at the end, .2mBTC. If it were decided now to raise the Minimum Reserve to 1mBTC, or 5mBTC, SELL holders would need to plan to take some of that out of their expected profit.
SELL holders would need to be willing to give up a bit of expected profit to raise the Minimum Reserve; my guess is that they would only do so if they thought that they would make more BTC trading a new Round with higher valued shares.
In addition, the SELL holdings are pretty consolidated, so a few large holders would likely decide the vote, if there were to be a vote on it.
Open to all comments and/or suggestions about it.
End Game via Increase doesn't trigger until The Reserve (200 Days of Current Dividends) reaches .2mBTC, NOT the daily dividend. This period's Reserve was 0.04277600, far from the .0002 needed to trigger the End Game.
As I've said previously, it will likely be well into 2015 until this happens (if this is how the End Game is triggered).
Looking forward, for the next round, I will probably choose a higher Minimum Reserve to trigger the End Game next time. I think aiming for around a 12 Period Round would be a good target. However, I can't change this now, as it would unfairly cost SELL holders BTC.
For instance, imagine that you hold SELL and you expect the End Game to happen via Increase. You expect to pay out to MINE holders, at the end, .2mBTC. If it were decided now to raise the Minimum Reserve to 1mBTC, or 5mBTC, SELL holders would need to plan to take some of that out of their expected profit.
SELL holders would need to be willing to give up a bit of expected profit to raise the Minimum Reserve; my guess is that they would only do so if they thought that they would make more BTC trading a new Round with higher valued shares.
In addition, the SELL holdings are pretty consolidated, so a few large holders would likely decide the vote, if there were to be a vote on it.
Open to all comments and/or suggestions about it.
Period 12, Day 3 Report - June 9, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 367.75173078
Total Units: 8764
NAV/U: BTC 0.04196163
Balance Post Divs: BTC 367.75173078
Total Units: 8764
NAV/U: BTC 0.04196163
This is tin-foil hat fun. Continue plz!
Are you Deprived? You sound like him (and frankly, you act like him -- no offense).
I'll take that as a compliment - no, I'm not Deprived, though. I appreciate the comparison, however, because I believe that Deprived is a highly intelligent person. Still, we're very different in a number of ways.
I took the liberty of using a textual analysis program and as it turns out your writing style uses some words Deprived also uses. For example, here is a snippet of five words from your OP and a series of Deprived's posts:
Frequency analysis (twentyseventy)
68 will (1.63%)
63 sell (1.51%)
29 fund (0.69%)
20 there (0.48%)
17 back (0.41%)
Frequency analysis (Deprived)
21 back (0.56%)
13 there (0.35%)
12 will (0.32%)
11 sell (0.29%)
10 fund (0.27%)
I think this analysis would carry more weight if the words weren't:
1) Extremely common words
2) Very appropriate words for both BDD and DMS
Sell, fund, and back? One of my contracts is called SELL, so there's that. Fund is what I've taken to calling BDD at times, and back is probably used most frequently in the 'buy back' manner, which was also a feature of DMS.
You're welcome to continue trying to connect some dots, but read through my early history - I asked a lot of questions in the DMS thread and, I believe, even got some answers from Deprived himself.
Either:
1) I enjoyed DMS, saw an opportunity with Deprived gone to make a name for myself, start my own listing, and make a few BTC, or:
2) I really am Deprived and I spent a year cultivating a forum account to have less experience, less reputation, and less BTC to start a fund. Oh, plus, it's a very realistic forum account where the person seems to only know a little at the beginning and then grows to learn and love BTC and securities. Finally, the alt account is an American, so I have to disguise my spelling and not use all those 'ou' Brit words - like colourful
I believe Occam's Razor applies here. At this point, I'm not sure if you're overestimating me or Deprived.
Anyway, have fun with it.
Are you Deprived? You sound like him (and frankly, you act like him -- no offense).
I'll take that as a compliment - no, I'm not Deprived, though. I appreciate the comparison, however, because I believe that Deprived is a highly intelligent person. Still, we're very different in a number of ways.
I took the liberty of using a textual analysis program and as it turns out your writing style uses some words Deprived also uses. For example, here is a snippet of five words from your OP and a series of Deprived's posts:
Frequency analysis (twentyseventy)
68 will (1.63%)
63 sell (1.51%)
29 fund (0.69%)
20 there (0.48%)
17 back (0.41%)
Frequency analysis (Deprived)
21 back (0.56%)
13 there (0.35%)
12 will (0.32%)
11 sell (0.29%)
10 fund (0.27%)
Period 12, Day 2 Report - June 8, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 368.33534942
Total Units: 8734
NAV/U: BTC 0.04217258
Balance Post Divs: BTC 368.33534942
Total Units: 8734
NAV/U: BTC 0.04217258
Hi, I am also very new here, however I would like to give Chellger my take on the BDD Fund, please correct me where I am wrong. I think my explanation below is oversimplified, but much better than saying B.SELL is shorting B.MINE:
While you get to essentially short B.MINE with B.SELL, I wouldn't call it shorting because their prices both derive from the bitcoin difficulty and not B.MINE. Also, when shorting a security you can potentially lose much more than what you spent on that security, whereas with B.SELL the maximum you can lose is the amount spent on the contract itself (i.e. the price at which you bought it). The nice thing that B.SELL provides is hedging your SHA256/BTC mining activities against difficulty increases.
Think of it this way, the sum of what B.SELL and B.MINE can payout (in total) is equal to the amount raised by the BDD fund from selling B.EXCH contracts. Buying the contracts at the correct prices is therefore your main concern as you can then get a bigger piece of the pie.
If you really want to delve in deep, consider learning more about derivative pricing models, as both B.MINE and B.SELL derive their value from mining difficulty.
While you get to essentially short B.MINE with B.SELL, I wouldn't call it shorting because their prices both derive from the bitcoin difficulty and not B.MINE. Also, when shorting a security you can potentially lose much more than what you spent on that security, whereas with B.SELL the maximum you can lose is the amount spent on the contract itself (i.e. the price at which you bought it). The nice thing that B.SELL provides is hedging your SHA256/BTC mining activities against difficulty increases.
Think of it this way, the sum of what B.SELL and B.MINE can payout (in total) is equal to the amount raised by the BDD fund from selling B.EXCH contracts. Buying the contracts at the correct prices is therefore your main concern as you can then get a bigger piece of the pie.
If you really want to delve in deep, consider learning more about derivative pricing models, as both B.MINE and B.SELL derive their value from mining difficulty.
That's very true, germanjew - the maximum downside is the total of the funds ventured. It's not a true short since you can only lose what you've put up.
You're correct that, at it's core, B.EXCH is purchased by someone and its parts (B.MINE and B.SELL) receive back nearly all of that value - determining how much each share will be paid out via dividends is the trick.
Determining the dividend payouts requires calculating how much a 5GH/s miner might expect to generate over its life. I advise everyone to read the overview and then read it again; it's a concept that takes more than one read-through to understand. If anyone has any specific questions about how the derivative works after that, I'm happy to help.
Hi, I am also very new here, however I would like to give Chellger my take on the BDD Fund, please correct me where I am wrong. I think my explanation below is oversimplified, but much better than saying B.SELL is shorting B.MINE:
While you get to essentially short B.MINE with B.SELL, I wouldn't call it shorting because their prices both derive from the bitcoin difficulty and not B.MINE. Also, when shorting a security you can potentially lose much more than what you spent on that security, whereas with B.SELL the maximum you can lose is the amount spent on the contract itself (i.e. the price at which you bought it). The nice thing that B.SELL provides is hedging your SHA256/BTC mining activities against difficulty increases.
Think of it this way, the sum of what B.SELL and B.MINE can payout (in total) is equal to the amount raised by the BDD fund from selling B.EXCH contracts. Buying the contracts at the correct prices is therefore your main concern as you can then get a bigger piece of the pie.
If you really want to delve in deep, consider learning more about derivative pricing models, as both B.MINE and B.SELL derive their value from mining difficulty.
While you get to essentially short B.MINE with B.SELL, I wouldn't call it shorting because their prices both derive from the bitcoin difficulty and not B.MINE. Also, when shorting a security you can potentially lose much more than what you spent on that security, whereas with B.SELL the maximum you can lose is the amount spent on the contract itself (i.e. the price at which you bought it). The nice thing that B.SELL provides is hedging your SHA256/BTC mining activities against difficulty increases.
Think of it this way, the sum of what B.SELL and B.MINE can payout (in total) is equal to the amount raised by the BDD fund from selling B.EXCH contracts. Buying the contracts at the correct prices is therefore your main concern as you can then get a bigger piece of the pie.
If you really want to delve in deep, consider learning more about derivative pricing models, as both B.MINE and B.SELL derive their value from mining difficulty.
Period 12, Day 1 Report - June 7, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 349.11989112
Total Units: 8244
NAV/U: BTC 0.04234836
Balance Post Divs: BTC 349.11989112
Total Units: 8244
NAV/U: BTC 0.04234836
From what I've gotten out of this asset, it essentially forces mining power to depreciate on the market, however as people continue to buy/sell EXCH shares and the total number of MINE/SELL pairs fluctuates, it will increase payouts to the SELL side, as the 2% below/3% above margin for EXCH trades adds to the NAV/U even after 20-70's mgmt fee.
Well, it essentially provides people a chance to hold mining power or to short it. Nowhere else can you short mining power.
It allows the market to accurately price (or attempt to accurately price) mining power. In a 'one-way' market like CEX.io, you can either buy mining power or choose not to buy it. There's no shorting it to allow the market to adjust. Unfortunately, most BTC-denominated stock exchanges operate this way as well.
From what I've gotten out of this asset, it essentially forces mining power to depreciate on the market, however as people continue to buy/sell EXCH shares and the total number of MINE/SELL pairs fluctuates, it will increase payouts to the SELL side, as the 2% below/3% above margin for EXCH trades adds to the NAV/U even after 20-70's mgmt fee.
I need some help!
Today i got out of Cryptostocks because, as you may know, their wallet has been offline twice and since they seem to have something to do with Vicurex, i just don't really trust them anymore.
Now I got my money into Havelock and B.Mine looked good to me. So i bought. THEN I did some research and I noticed that I have no Idea what is going on and I sold again. Stupid enough, but I actually made 0.03 BTC profit because the price jumped from 0.00213 to 0.00234 or something. Lucky me, I guess.
I've read the first page, explaining what BDD is, but I don't really get it. Can someone explain to me, if it is a good Idea to buy B.Mine that late into its lifetime? If I understand correctly, there are 200 Dividends in B.Mine, then the Issuer will force-buy it back at a rather small price. For me this looks like I can only make back 20 % of my original investment by now.
So if I want to go into B.Mine at this point - Is that a wise desicion, or the worst ever?
Today i got out of Cryptostocks because, as you may know, their wallet has been offline twice and since they seem to have something to do with Vicurex, i just don't really trust them anymore.
Now I got my money into Havelock and B.Mine looked good to me. So i bought. THEN I did some research and I noticed that I have no Idea what is going on and I sold again. Stupid enough, but I actually made 0.03 BTC profit because the price jumped from 0.00213 to 0.00234 or something. Lucky me, I guess.
I've read the first page, explaining what BDD is, but I don't really get it. Can someone explain to me, if it is a good Idea to buy B.Mine that late into its lifetime? If I understand correctly, there are 200 Dividends in B.Mine, then the Issuer will force-buy it back at a rather small price. For me this looks like I can only make back 20 % of my original investment by now.
So if I want to go into B.Mine at this point - Is that a wise desicion, or the worst ever?
Hi Chellger, I'll be happy to help. Quite busy at work at the minute, but to start you out - each share of B.MINE represents a theoretical 5GH/s miner.
If someone offered to sell you a 5GH/s miner, what would you pay for it? You'd probably head to a mining calculator, right? (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator)
So, start there. There's no way to know the 'true value' to a 5GH/s miner right now - its value will depend on how much the difficulty increases/decreases in the future. It's purely an educated guess at the moment.
This will give you a good idea of the actual value of that B.MINE share that you hold. Regarding the End-Games - this just means that, once each daily MINE dividend has reached 100 Satoshis or less (currently it is 21388 Satoshis per day), then all MINE shares will be bought back for 200 days of dividends (which will be around 20000 Satoshis Total).
Basically, when the daily dividends get to be super small, we call the game and pay out 200 Days of Dividends to MINE. SELL receives the rest, if any. This assumes that the Difficulty continues to increase.
My modest english vocabulary doesn't allow me to explain in detail what this fund is about, but twentyseventy is always polite and trying to help newcomers.
You have to start with carefully reading first page. I see you read it 
Short: B.MINE is acting as a 5gh/s mining bond (as if it's a 5gh/s mining machine) - it pays a certain dividend per day based on the bitcoin difficulty. You have to decide, based on your speculation on how bitcoin network hashrate will increase in future, if this 5gh/s bond is worth buying at the current price.
'End of game' or forced buy-back is not in 200 days, but when thefund period reserve goes below 0.0002 btc. Now it's 350 0.04277600 btc, so still plenty to go.
Short: B.MINE is acting as a 5gh/s mining bond (as if it's a 5gh/s mining machine) - it pays a certain dividend per day based on the bitcoin difficulty. You have to decide, based on your speculation on how bitcoin network hashrate will increase in future, if this 5gh/s bond is worth buying at the current price.
'End of game' or forced buy-back is not in 200 days, but when the
I need some help!
Today i got out of Cryptostocks because, as you may know, their wallet has been offline twice and since they seem to have something to do with Vicurex, i just don't really trust them anymore.
Now I got my money into Havelock and B.Mine looked good to me. So i bought. THEN I did some research and I noticed that I have no Idea what is going on and I sold again. Stupid enough, but I actually made 0.03 BTC profit because the price jumped from 0.00213 to 0.00234 or something. Lucky me, I guess.
I've read the first page, explaining what BDD is, but I don't really get it. Can someone explain to me, if it is a good Idea to buy B.Mine that late into its lifetime? If I understand correctly, there are 200 Dividends in B.Mine, then the Issuer will force-buy it back at a rather small price. For me this looks like I can only make back 20 % of my original investment by now.
So if I want to go into B.Mine at this point - Is that a wise desicion, or the worst ever?
Today i got out of Cryptostocks because, as you may know, their wallet has been offline twice and since they seem to have something to do with Vicurex, i just don't really trust them anymore.
Now I got my money into Havelock and B.Mine looked good to me. So i bought. THEN I did some research and I noticed that I have no Idea what is going on and I sold again. Stupid enough, but I actually made 0.03 BTC profit because the price jumped from 0.00213 to 0.00234 or something. Lucky me, I guess.
I've read the first page, explaining what BDD is, but I don't really get it. Can someone explain to me, if it is a good Idea to buy B.Mine that late into its lifetime? If I understand correctly, there are 200 Dividends in B.Mine, then the Issuer will force-buy it back at a rather small price. For me this looks like I can only make back 20 % of my original investment by now.
So if I want to go into B.Mine at this point - Is that a wise desicion, or the worst ever?
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