This spreadsheet is showing a simple increase of 6 PH per period, which is unconscionable. The calculations should take into account at least a 15% increase per period.
So instead of 6,000 TH being added to network every 10 days, you propose a perpetual 15% every 10 days
so for example
start @ 76,000 TH
10 days later 87,400 TH
10 days later 100,509 TH,
10 days later 115,586 TH
10 days later 132,924 TH
10 days later 152,862 TH
10 days later 175,791 TH
10 days later 202,159 TH
(2 months passed)
and so on and so forth till sometime in not so distant future we'll be in exahashes adding god knows how many PH daily?
This is the same argument I have been making. Very few seem to understand how even 10% is not sustainable over the long term.
I am confident we have hit the wall with 28nm. I don't see any 25%+ difficulty increases in our future until the next gen.
Yes. I personally think there will be some big diff jumps ahead, but of course it does things do have to slow down at some point.
I guess can't really argue to much if you look at historical data of diff increases. and say why would anything change now when it hasn't in the past.
it's easier to just operate under set assumptions about likelihood of being able to maintain a percentage of the global hashrate. (although where you get the assumptions from is the leap of faith part) There's no crystal ball about what exactly the difficulty would be at x point in future, but data is out there about some projects which are coming online. cryptx can forge relationships with manafacturers. there's no reason with that relationship they can't obtain even off the shelf hardware in bulk that will earn more BTC than was spent to purchase it, despite it being tried before with incompetents like icedrill.
you can be pessimistic. Imagine cryptx can only ever attain 1% of global hashrate or half what they state and still see what, 70% yield based on pretty much peak price thus far.
Assuming peta's hashrate % in relation to global hashrate is steadily maintained over a long period of time (say 6 months) if not increased I see no reason why market wouldn't self-adjust to a lower yield being acceptable.
I strongly disagree with many of the points that you've made here.
Yes, it is much easier to do use a static PH hashrate increase over a percentage increase, but if you would have done this any time since January 2013 (predict less than 8% increases, as the spreadsheet does), you would be dead wrong. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, but I believe that it's there is a strong link in this case. It's
easier but it's lazy and, to me, shows a lack of respect to the shareholders.
I don't disagree that a wall will come for difficulty. But now? With so many companies pumping out their new ASIC generations? And, if you're long BTC like most of us are, you simply can't ignore that a rising BTC price over the next 1-3 years will only make the mining space more crowded and competitive.
My issue here is not with cryptx's profitability or business model - they very well may be able to forge many beneficial manufacturing contracts. My issue is simply lazy / downright irresponsible forecasts of the difficulty. I don't have any stake in any cryptx ventures, I simply point out inaccuracies when I see them. This one is glaring.