Topic: here's just how screwed ASIC buyers are - READ THIS if you have a preorder - page 12. (Read 23336 times)

To add to the wrong things...:

The Jalepeno now puts out 4.5GH/s.
The Single now puts out 60GH/s.
MR = 1500GH/s.

Now, if we get a 10x difficulty increase after the preorders are filled (which I think is quite likely), and if someone was to order a Single after said difficulty increase, and if that happened after the 25 reward drop, and if the price didn't move, then:

$253.67 / 10 / 2 = the single would make $12.68/day.  That's still a return on investment of 103 days (interestingly, almost exactly what the ROI was when I purchased my first-gen Singles).

So, I'll reiterate it this way:

• Current ASIC pre-orderers are most certainly not screwed.  Every one of them will make their money back and more.  And I'll take someone up on a betsofbitco.in regarding that to put my money where my mouth is.
• It is likely that the ROI will remain reasonable (under 12 months) for the forseeable future, unless the BTC price drops significantly.  The reason for this is that we will quickly reach a point where the

Desolator, why do you keep making these anti-ASIC threads anyway?  It seems you are jealous of everyone who actually can order an ASIC, and have made it your goal to prevent more orders and/or make current pre-order holders feel bad.  It doesn't make much sense to me, and frankly, your repetition of falsities in these threads are getting a bit stale.

If the difficulty goes up, and the price doesn't immediately follow, the supply will eventually be purchased up by Silk Road addicts. Silk Road users don't care if they pay $100 for 10 BTC or $100 for .1 BTC, just as long as they get ~$100 worth of their "stuff". That said, after the supply of coin dries up and the price skyrockets, if the ROI for Bitcoin mining hits ~30days like it did in June 2011, you're definitely going to see people selling to make back their money. The only problem for the ASIC miners is going to be they have all their funds wrapped up in miners and not actual BTC, so they'll have no way to hedge their losses when the price does fall and they are looking at either unprofitability (European miners with $0.20/kWh) or multi-year ROI.

On the other hand, if you remember, after GPU miners came out, we actually saw a shortage of GPUs and a spike in the prices of them, so many of these miners may still be able to resell their miners for coin directly. On the other hand, these are only the first runs of what are likely to be many ASIC runs, with increased interest and purchases, the manufacturers will be able to make more and more efficient units for cheaper and cheaper.

My guess is that the next bubble will have a geo-political impact. I do believe it will still be considered an irrational bubble, though. The growth that I talked about in this post of December 2011 seems to have come to an end. Market irrationality is back and back in full force:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/before-the-next-big-rise-i-just-wanted-to-get-my-two-cents-in-53949

My advice now is, get ready for "unstable growth".

I made my calculations up to 250 TH & will still be profitable at that difficulty 

Just multiply 131,384 for every TH & see what you think.

If & when it gets near that 250 TH mark,I'll get more rigs to even out the income,maybe even way before   

I had orders for 0.2TH placed with everyone but BFL and i will not pay them.

I belive in what i wrote and i don't want to scare you so that i make money, i will buy BTC directly and maybe get into the ASIC business at a later time.

Yep, you are all screwed. Everyone cancel your orders so I can make a lot of money.

Thanks  

Yes, i fixed it before your post tough
Sorry for the confusion.

You still got it backwards.

Sorry, copied pasted the wrong number, however the rest of the post is correct; fixed that.

Would you mind relooking at your numbers?

I want to share the fast calculations i did a few days ago.

1) let's suppose to be around 10M$ in ASIC preorder
2) the $/GH is 21.6 ($/GH) (1300$ for 60GH)
3) so there will be around 460TH of hashing power *added* when the preorders delivery (10M$/21.6$/GH)
4) as of now a 1GH/s miner does around 0.3512 BTC/daily with a total network power of 21TH
5) let's halve that amount since that we will soon go from 50 to 25BTC per block, that's is 0.1756 BTC/day
6) the hashing power will go up around 20 times, that means that your profit per day per 1GH/s will go down of around 20 times, that's is 0.00878 BTC/GH/day
7) now let's suppose to have around 60GH/s of hashing power, that's 60 * 0.00878, 0.5BTC/day @50-100W
8 ) you need 120BTC to payback your 60GH/s mining hardware, that's 240 days, not taking into account the power usage.
9) after 120 days the asic market will be completely different, with people buying 1TH for 1000$

Yes, you are all screwed.

Yea except that gold isn't held together by a massive drug trade.

Here's a possible way to think of it I guess. Consider gold right now. Valuable for the known reasons. Now imagine there's an island discovered in the middle of the pacific that consists of 2-3 times the quantity of gold currently in circulation in trivially mineable form, all you need is a boat to get there. What does this do to the cost of gold? To the cost of boats? Is it worth buying a boat?

Actually, it's a crap analogy since the rate of bitcoins mined is a constant and you'd have to make assumptions about people not being able to monopolize access. Maybe someone could knock it into shape?

So much wrong...

1) There are less than 7000 orders. I went through 7 order numbers myself trying to buy my first SC Single. I know other people go through 3,5, or 10+ order numbers, never paid, and those order number just keep adding up into nothing. WE don't know how many orders there are, but BFL does (and hasn't told us). The Pre-order thread is not at all complete, but does list at least 46TH/s. I'm expecting this to be closer to 100TH/s, to account for people who have not listed their orders there.

2) While your numbers for BFL were high, your numbers for both the bASIC and the Avalon are LOW. Tom has said that he has ~400 bASICs already preordered (which puts him over 21TH/s), and the Avalon pre-order capped at 300 (which puts them at 18TH/s).

3) Even after the pre-orders, I will agree that the network will continue to grow. Obv it will reach 300 or even 400, but who knows how long that will take?

4) The SC Single, MR, and bASIC all have ~50% more speed per $ spent, so they will obv pay themselves off faster than a Jalapeno, even in spite of a skyrocketing difficulty. And a 10 day payback period is just astounding, but that will not last long. I think the price will level out so that a Single or a bASIC will pay for themselves in about a 6 month time (which is what the market is used to now).

I know that for BFL and BTCFPGA, that there are orders that people never paid for but are included in the order #'s so your data might be off. 

Squid's right about the timing thing of course.  That's why the only way I'm getting a device is if I am guaranteed to beat 95% of all other preorders by at least 5 days.  But then the whole theory goes out the window because no matter what any company says, they're ALL LYING!  They will plug in a top end device or two that they made to mine before anyone else.  If BFL just happened to switch on 10 of their rigs for 1 day, that's about $2300.  Or they could ship them and not make that money.  If I was a business, I'd run em for a few days before sending them out

oh and since like a couple million USD was turned into BTC to make pre-order payments at BFL and the price magically went from $4 to $12.80 because of it, without that demand and with paypal payments available, it's gonna see <$5 again.  So that puts my estimate at like 7 years hardware payoff, lol.  But apparently my BFL numbers were inflated anyway so it all kinda goes out the window regardless, lol

As soon as someone hops in their time machine and tells me what the price of BTC is 5 years from now, I'll make that my target break even point, lol.  Ohhh waaaait, that's right, I'm broke as hell right now, so I would prefer money right now lol.  But yeah, this was mostly just to discourage horribly unrealistic people from thinking they'll make loads-o-moneyz after like 12 days when it's closer to 9 months to never

Btw my best math takes the 14000, includes BFL-hater trolling w/fake orders, people just curious about their total sale count, and people testing if the final page on their order site actually loads....*clicks calculator* they have 7 pre-orders, lol.

First off, its not like these companies will be these products instantly. The network hash rate isn't going to increase 20 fold over night. This means early investors have a significant advantage over later investors. Second, your prediction over another 2x increase in network hash rate is probably not going to happen unless a price war occurs. People aren't going to invest in bASIC as the ROI goes down with the network hash rate going up. There will be some wall that is hit until all the ASIC companies lower their prices significantly which will result once again in an increase in hash rate..

Overall, if you are an early adopter you will definitely make a good chuck of bitcoin. The real question is, which company will ship first, whose theoretical numbers are most accurate (in terms of power use and hash rate) and for later adopters who is most likely ship out fastest.

you will be very pleased if you have a 20% ROE in most other industries, which approximately means that investors cover their investment in 5 years. ASIC is still good investment, though a little bit lower than the expectation.

Ok, maybe fake is not the right word to describe it. I was saying orders that didn't go through (buyer changed his mind or just wanted to see what the number was at that point in time) but the order number incremented anyways.

Ohhhh, they should clean that up, lol.

I put my best scientific minds on this and they came up with a simpler calculation that's guaranteed accurate!  There's still 50 BTC (well 25 soon) to go around every 10 minutes regardless of total TH/s.  That's how the protocol works.  So take whatever your hardware's capabilities are and divide it by the total TH/s of the system and multiply that by 25BTC and you'll get how many BTC you'll earn per 10 minutes