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Topic: High Efficiency FPGA & ASIC Bitcoin Mining Devices https://BTCFPGA.com - page 36. (Read 218473 times)

staff
Activity: 4284
Merit: 8808
No, just your assumptions on difficulty. I don't expect any of these 60 GH range ASIC products to make even $1000 in 2013 alone. By design, difficulty will always bring the cost-to-mine very close to power costs. When it catches up, power costs will be all that matters. Until then, delivery dates before it adjusts are the key importance.
Agreed.

The people who have the view that the power doesn't matter only have it because they have high profitability expectations.  The people saying that power is all that matters are expecting very long payoff horizons due to difficulty increases.  I think the latter view is safer and also more correct, especially if you're not counting on being very early in your deployment.

Which I think results is another interesting bit to take away from the discussion:   BFL is apparently not expecting their customers purchases to pay for themselves for quite a long time.   This is fine by me, as it's also what I expect— and I mine for fun and to support Bitcoin, and not because I'm expecting to make a a lot of funds doing it... but if you were thinking otherwise you might want to carefully review your expectations.

Of course, at the moment— there is still the potential of getting ASIC based miners before they are widely deployed and the difficulty catches up, so thats a competitive factor thats hard to reason about.  Though you can probably count on it not happening for you if you're last on a long preorder backlog…
legendary
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1004
Power usage is *everything* when it comes to ASIC.  If you think it's not, you have no grasp on the economics of mining.
Please explain your economics of mining.  By my calculations power usage at this order of magnitude is pretty much irrelevant compared to price.

Take a BFL Single, 60 Ghash/s, 60 W.  The miner costs 1299 USD and will use 1.44 kW/day.  14.4 cents a day at 0.10 USD/kWh.  You can run this miner 24/7 for almost 25 years before you have spent the same amount for power to run the device that you paid for the device itself!  There may even be better miners to buy at a lower price in 2037, making it obsolete before the owner has spent more on power to run it than on the device itself.  If the device is still working.  (How long is your warranty and what is the expected lifetime of a BFL Single, btw?)  Hardly anyone will ever pay more for the power to run the miner through it's lifetime than they did for the miner itself.

My simple math shows that power usage is almost irrelevant for an ASIC miner.  Price per Ghash produced throughout the miners lifetime will almost certainly always be dominated by the initial investment, not power consumption.  Price per Ghash/s is the important factor.

Is my math wrong?
No, just your assumptions on difficulty. I don't expect any of these 60 GH range ASIC products to make even $1000 in 2013 alone. By design, difficulty will always bring the cost-to-mine very close to power costs. When it catches up, power costs will be all that matters. Until then, delivery dates before it adjusts are the key importance.

Only if there is enough capital in the system to purchase the equipment needed to get the hashrate that high. With GPUs, for something like a 6970 you might spend $200 on the card and at 150W and $.15/kWhr you would spend about $200/yr on power. For something like a BFL Single, your initial cost is $600 and you would spend $105 on power for a year. With an ASIC Single, your cost is $1300 and $79 on power for a year.

At $12/BTC and 25BTC/block, to get to the point where mining income is twice the power cost for a BFL Single would require 6.1PH/s. That's 4067 Minirigs worth of hashing power, or $122M worth of hardware. At current prices, that's about the value of all the remaining bitcoins left to be mined.
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1186
Power usage is *everything* when it comes to ASIC.  If you think it's not, you have no grasp on the economics of mining.
Please explain your economics of mining.  By my calculations power usage at this order of magnitude is pretty much irrelevant compared to price.

Take a BFL Single, 60 Ghash/s, 60 W.  The miner costs 1299 USD and will use 1.44 kW/day.  14.4 cents a day at 0.10 USD/kWh.  You can run this miner 24/7 for almost 25 years before you have spent the same amount for power to run the device that you paid for the device itself!  There may even be better miners to buy at a lower price in 2037, making it obsolete before the owner has spent more on power to run it than on the device itself.  If the device is still working.  (How long is your warranty and what is the expected lifetime of a BFL Single, btw?)  Hardly anyone will ever pay more for the power to run the miner through it's lifetime than they did for the miner itself.

My simple math shows that power usage is almost irrelevant for an ASIC miner.  Price per Ghash produced throughout the miners lifetime will almost certainly always be dominated by the initial investment, not power consumption.  Price per Ghash/s is the important factor.

Is my math wrong?
No, just your assumptions on difficulty. I don't expect any of these 60 GH range ASIC products to make even $1000 in 2013 alone. By design, difficulty will always bring the cost-to-mine very close to power costs. When it catches up, power costs will be all that matters. Until then, delivery dates before it adjusts are the key importance.
legendary
Activity: 2702
Merit: 1261
Tom, I think Josh will never agree to your bet and that alone is a clear statement about the status of the BFL ASIC products for me. Sometimes he reminds me to MNW. Just ignore him, stay away from BFL threads/comparisons and concentrate on your bASIC product.

Back to bASIC - do you think your estimated ship date for the bASICs is still valid?
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1001
I'm putting up 1000 BTC against BFL hardware @ 1.1w / GH against your "competitive" definition.  That's it.  Simple.  Define "competitive" and you can win $12,000. 
Why this obsession with wattage per Ghash/s?  It is of no importance whatsoever, as long as they play roughly in the same league.  This whole discussion is pointless.  There are two important factors that determine profitability, assuming both are reasonably stable.  Price per Ghash/s and delivery date.
Shhh!!!
It's a secret!
legendary
Activity: 1437
Merit: 1002
https://bitmynt.no
I'm putting up 1000 BTC against BFL hardware @ 1.1w / GH against your "competitive" definition.  That's it.  Simple.  Define "competitive" and you can win $12,000. 
Why this obsession with wattage per Ghash/s?  It is of no importance whatsoever, as long as they play roughly in the same league.  This whole discussion is pointless.  There are two important factors that determine profitability, assuming both are reasonably stable.  Price per Ghash/s and delivery date.
legendary
Activity: 952
Merit: 1000
I'm putting up 1000 BTC against BFL hardware @ 1.1w / GH against your "competitive" definition.
That was not the original deal. If you had stuck to the original deal, you could have had Tom's 1000BTC. Instead, you argued and turned it about him instead of about BFL, and now you'll never see those coins.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1006
I did not decline the bet.  We'll see if Tom has enough confidence in his hardware to make the bet.  My guess is he'll chicken out and take the excuse of "You won't stay out of my thread" to back out of the bet.  But maybe he'll surprise me.
You are wrong! The bet was not about bASIC power requirement, ONLY about BFL's claim. Don't mix things...
I agree. Take the damn bet for 1000BTC about whether BFL can deliver their claimed efficiency. If you're so confident, then it should be easy money for you! However, you're antagonizing him with all this nit-picking of dictionary terminology, which is just going to screw you (by not getting the 1000BTC bet).

He's calling you out on your claims. Take the bet, and prove him wrong. Then, if you want to nitpick about his terms and "competitiveness", make a separate bet in another thread.
^This. So much this.

Tom doesn't want to provide a specific power figure on the possibility that it'll be wrong. Surely after claiming that the FPGA single would draw 20W, BFL understands that simulation figures have a habit of getting revised one way or another?
We know the thing can be powered by Molex, so surely that gives you some idea.

Besides, you're really going to turn down what should be an easy twelve grand because Tom won't pull some wattage numbers out of thin air?

I'm not asking him to give wattage numbers or a power estimate, I am asking him to define competitive.  What the hell, are you completely incapable of reading?  

Again, here's the bet I'm willing to make:

1.  BFL products will ship with a power usage at 1.1w per GH or less.
2. Tom defines "competitive."
3. Tom does not require that I stay out of his thread as a condition of the bet.

That's it.  Tom has already declined because he knows if he defines competitive one of two things happen:

A) People realize his definition of "competitive" and their definition are grossly different.
B) He has to admit that his power usage is not going to be competitive.

That's really the only reason he is declining the bet at this point, because it forces him into a position of admitting something he doesn't want to admit yet, because his precious pre-orders will dry up like a bone in a desert.


ITT, we have a living example for the term "thundercunt"
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
The ball is in Toms court at this point.  If he doesn't even have the confidence in his hardware to define "competitive" then there's not really that much more to be said.  The fact that he's unwilling to back his own words with his actions speaks volumes as to his integrity.

I'm putting up 1000 BTC against BFL hardware @ 1.1w / GH against your "competitive" definition.  That's it.  Simple.  Define "competitive" and you can win $12,000. 

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
and you guys thought i was off topic  Roll Eyes
legendary
Activity: 1027
Merit: 1005
I did not decline the bet.  We'll see if Tom has enough confidence in his hardware to make the bet.  My guess is he'll chicken out and take the excuse of "You won't stay out of my thread" to back out of the bet.  But maybe he'll surprise me.
You are wrong! The bet was not about bASIC power requirement, ONLY about BFL's claim. Don't mix things...
I agree. Take the damn bet for 1000BTC about whether BFL can deliver their claimed efficiency. If you're so confident, then it should be easy money for you! However, you're antagonizing him with all this nit-picking of dictionary terminology, which is just going to screw you (by not getting the 1000BTC bet).

He's calling you out on your claims. Take the bet, and prove him wrong. Then, if you want to nitpick about his terms and "competitiveness", make a separate bet in another thread.
^This. So much this.

Tom doesn't want to provide a specific power figure on the possibility that it'll be wrong. Surely after claiming that the FPGA single would draw 20W, BFL understands that simulation figures have a habit of getting revised one way or another?
We know the thing can be powered by Molex, so surely that gives you some idea.

Besides, you're really going to turn down what should be an easy twelve grand because Tom won't pull some wattage numbers out of thin air?

I'm not asking him to give wattage numbers or a power estimate, I am asking him to define competitive.  What the hell, are you completely incapable of reading? 

Again, here's the bet I'm willing to make:

1.  BFL products will ship with a power usage at 1.1w per GH or less.
2. Tom defines "competitive."
3. Tom does not require that I stay out of his thread as a condition of the bet.

That's it.  Tom has already declined because he knows if he defines competitive one of two things happen:

A) People realize his definition of "competitive" and their definition are grossly different.
B) He has to admit that his power usage is not going to be competitive.

That's really the only reason he is declining the bet at this point, because it forces him into a position of admitting something he doesn't want to admit yet, because his precious pre-orders will dry up like a bone in a desert.



Just incase you are incapable of reading here is the bet Tom is willing to make...

Quote
1) When BFL's line of ASIC's hit the wild they must not consume more than 1.1 watt of electricity per 1Gh/s of Bitcoin mining speed, and according to everything you are telling us 1.1 watts per 1Gh/s is the most electricity they will use.

2) You will no longer post in my thread, if you post in my thread again you automatically lose the bet.

Its simple, 2 things... but you cant handle it.

Every word you type here does two things. It shows how much of a douche you really are and puts another strike against BFL. I never spole a bad word about them and I was not around for the issues in the past but after the way you act around here I will never buy from them! You may remember this quote...

Quote
BFL is the clear technical leader in the FPGA and upcoming ASIC mining space.  As a direct result, the company has grown very quickly over the past year.  Unfortunately, its customer service, which was initially very good, did not scale fast enough, which caused customer relations and transparency to suffer. BFL is eager to improve and one of my top responsibilities in this new position is to focus on that specific issue.  I am, have always been and will always be committed to good customer service and transparency when it comes to bitcoin in general and the daily operations of related activities.  This is where I will be focusing much of my initial attention, specifically to take the pressure off of everyone involved so that they can focus on the other important factors, such as getting the hardware delivered on time!

Might I just say you are one hell of an employee! I hope you get a raise for all you have done, infact is it possible for your boss to see this thread? has he/she been watching?
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1001
Who would be interested in a crow-founded bet against Inaba?
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
We're gonna need some troll repellent over here...
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 500
Umm.. you already declined, so just stfu, kthx!
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
I did not decline the bet.  We'll see if Tom has enough confidence in his hardware to make the bet.  My guess is he'll chicken out and take the excuse of "You won't stay out of my thread" to back out of the bet.  But maybe he'll surprise me.
You are wrong! The bet was not about bASIC power requirement, ONLY about BFL's claim. Don't mix things...
I agree. Take the damn bet for 1000BTC about whether BFL can deliver their claimed efficiency. If you're so confident, then it should be easy money for you! However, you're antagonizing him with all this nit-picking of dictionary terminology, which is just going to screw you (by not getting the 1000BTC bet).

He's calling you out on your claims. Take the bet, and prove him wrong. Then, if you want to nitpick about his terms and "competitiveness", make a separate bet in another thread.
^This. So much this.

Tom doesn't want to provide a specific power figure on the possibility that it'll be wrong. Surely after claiming that the FPGA single would draw 20W, BFL understands that simulation figures have a habit of getting revised one way or another?
We know the thing can be powered by Molex, so surely that gives you some idea.

Besides, you're really going to turn down what should be an easy twelve grand because Tom won't pull some wattage numbers out of thin air?

I'm not asking him to give wattage numbers or a power estimate, I am asking him to define competitive.  What the hell, are you completely incapable of reading?  

Again, here's the bet I'm willing to make:

1.  BFL products will ship with a power usage at 1.1w per GH or less.
2. Tom defines "competitive."
3. Tom does not require that I stay out of his thread as a condition of the bet.

That's it.  Tom has already declined because he knows if he defines competitive one of two things happen:

A) People realize his definition of "competitive" and their definition are grossly different.
B) He has to admit that his power usage is not going to be competitive.

That's really the only reason he is declining the bet at this point, because it forces him into a position of admitting something he doesn't want to admit yet, because his precious pre-orders will dry up like a bone in a desert.
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1000
Items flashing here available at btctrinkets.com
Haha, I knew Tom did not have the confidence in his product to back up the bet!  Thanks for confirming it, Tom!


Seriously... I hope atleast your eployer realizes that you are hurting their reputation with this. Consider me a potential customer who's (once again) shocked and appalled by the way BFL appears to be conducting buisness.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
I did not decline the bet.  We'll see if Tom has enough confidence in his hardware to make the bet.  My guess is he'll chicken out and take the excuse of "You won't stay out of my thread" to back out of the bet.  But maybe he'll surprise me.
You are wrong! The bet was not about bASIC power requirement, ONLY about BFL's claim. Don't mix things...
I agree. Take the damn bet for 1000BTC about whether BFL can deliver their claimed efficiency. If you're so confident, then it should be easy money for you! However, you're antagonizing him with all this nit-picking of dictionary terminology, which is just going to screw you (by not getting the 1000BTC bet).

He's calling you out on your claims. Take the bet, and prove him wrong. Then, if you want to nitpick about his terms and "competitiveness", make a separate bet in another thread.
^This. So much this.

Tom doesn't want to provide a specific power figure on the possibility that it'll be wrong. Surely after claiming that the FPGA single would draw 20W, BFL understands that simulation figures have a habit of getting revised one way or another?
We know the thing can be powered by Molex, so surely that gives you some idea.

Besides, you're really going to turn down what should be an easy twelve grand because Tom won't pull some wattage numbers out of thin air?
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
Haha, I knew Tom did not have the confidence in his product to back up the bet!  Thanks for confirming it, Tom!  I'm willing to 1000 BTC against our SHIPPING power usage.  All you have to do is define "competitive," you don't even have to give a power estimate.  I'm willing to put 1000 BTC against you just defining "competitive" and you aren't even willing to do that.  What are you hiding?

I've still got 1000 BTC to back up our power when you're ready to come clean and be honest with your customers, Tom.  Just let me know when you're ready.
hero member
Activity: 896
Merit: 1000
Buy this account on March-2019. New Owner here!!
Happy Friday Everyone!


I will be out of the office this afternoon - Bill Clinton is in town today and is giving a little speech at the airport to support Dan Maffei.

My oldest son has Asperger's syndrome and Bill Clinton is his current obsession (its an autism spectrum disorder and one of the side effects is they often become fixated on a person or subject for a period of time) so I am taking him to see his current hero


I know there are some voice mails, I will return those calls as soon as I can.

As far as the bet goes it looks like it's not going to happen - whether Josh does not have confidence in his products or whether he just can't bear to give up the right to harass us in this thread I am not sure
but either way it Looks like business as usual Smiley

Thank you for everyone's support - my customers are the best!

Have a great day!

Tom

if you need me call 315 514 0269 - leave a message and ill call you back
hero member
Activity: 535
Merit: 500
I didn't think BFL's PR could get any worse.

Josh has shown it's possible.

The ASIC market will eventually be flooded with competition and BFL will pay the price.
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