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Topic: High prices mean even higher volatility - page 2. (Read 1627 times)

legendary
Activity: 2044
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January 17, 2021, 01:28:46 AM
The fact that the price volatility of bitcoin is capable of increasing with an increase in its price can be seen even in the example of the last rise in the price of bitcoin to $ 40,000. On January 10, the bitcoin price exceeded $ 40,000, and the very next day, on January 11, it dropped to $ 31,000, on January 12, it rose above $ 36,000. If you look at the CoinMarketCap table at this time, the price of bitcoin just jumped up and down by hundreds of dollars every few seconds. Previously, when its price was lower, such high volatility was not observed. You can imagine how its price will sometimes jump when it reaches a hundred thousand dollars or more

That's what the theory says

Both the rise and the fall are driven by institutional money going in and out of the market. Simple folks don't actively sell but they still accumulate religiously on pullbacks. This leads to an ever decreasing supply side because the number of bitcoins cannot significantly increase as there are only so many bitcoins (as opposed to, for example, gold, which supply is elastic). As a result, volatility is set to outrun the rise in prices, and this is exactly what we see happening right now. Eventually, the Bitcoin Big Rip event should occur (at least hypothetically)

Interesting to read this long-duration thread over the years at this point. I think I was skeptical of the idea 3 years ago, but I think the general thesis has borne out pretty well over this most recent run up in the price, and I think the institutional investors moving in really illustrate well the effect it has on the price and the crunch on the supply side driving volatility.
sr. member
Activity: 854
Merit: 264
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January 17, 2021, 12:51:20 AM
High prices are not only the forerunners of high volatility but also high inflation. So volatility at high prices is quite a working mechanism for auto-correction of goods and prices for them. If [something]  is unreasonably expensive, then it has a very large chance to go bankrupt/close/collapse its price simply because the supply will not be conditioned by demand. Thus, inflation is not accelerated to super-indicators by printing money as an attempt to ensure high prices.
And when this mechanism fails, you get Venezuela.
There is an unpopular opinion (mine) that after reaching a certain price level (high enough), BTC and any other expensive coin can collapse to the bottom simply because this price will become unreasonably high. And that's good. Thus, people will finally understand that earn fiat from cryptocurrencies is not why they exist.
hero member
Activity: 2114
Merit: 603
January 15, 2021, 12:11:15 AM
#99
Higher prices means huge market cap to give support to its backbone. In this case bitcoin is invested by small to big companies and individuals as well. This forms the so called backbone for it and thus its prices are defined based on that.

Does this affect volatility? Yes of course it does because we are completely relying on this mega investors and if they wish they could take out their money off the market anytime and disturb the prices thus turning it into bitcoins volatility. 
legendary
Activity: 3346
Merit: 1352
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January 14, 2021, 10:30:13 PM
#98
That's what the theory says

Both the rise and the fall are driven by institutional money going in and out of the market. Simple folks don't actively sell but they still accumulate religiously on pullbacks. This leads to an ever decreasing supply side because the number of bitcoins cannot significantly increase as there are only so many bitcoins (as opposed to, for example, gold, which supply is elastic). As a result, volatility is set to outrun the rise in prices, and this is exactly what we see happening right now. Eventually, the Bitcoin Big Rip event should occur (at least hypothetically)

Right now it is the institutions that are mopping up whatever supply there is in the market. And since these institutions have just made their investment, we can expect them to hold on to their coins at least for the next 12-18 months. A lot of the individual users are also holding on to their coins, as they are targeting six-digit exchange rates. Obviously this will lead to a decline in trade volumes, and the liquidity will decline as a result.
full member
Activity: 854
Merit: 108
January 14, 2021, 09:31:19 PM
#97
I agree and I think this is the normal market cycle of every market performance in which this is not only happening in Crypto particularly Bitcoin market but also in other trading industries too like stocks exchange. Even do we choose to invest in blue chips but still after the price moving upward it will surely going down as there is no history that a certain market is steadily going up.


full member
Activity: 686
Merit: 125
January 14, 2021, 05:51:27 PM
#96
It will becoming more volatile once bitcoin supply move a little like people buying or selling since almost all supply had been already liquidated then bitcoin market price will be greatly affected. Well, this is actually good for the day traders. But I would not be suggesting to any newbie wanted to become a day trader because bitcoin market price prediction is very difficult to predict. However, others are earning in day trading due to the fact that they are having bots working for them to trade automatically for them.
legendary
Activity: 2142
Merit: 1012
January 14, 2021, 05:43:39 PM
#95
The increase in bitcoin price has so far been uncontrollable so that the price is very volatile, which in turn causes high volatility. Of course the OP has understood enough about this.
Fluctuation is an inseparable part of bitcoin because that is how trader profit. But I am pretty sure that bitcoin is currently experiencing high price volatility due to market trends. The 12% increase in the last 24 hours is what I mean.
I would be interested to hear your opinion of how you present the controlled growth of prices in bitcoin Wink Bitcoin is at the upper border of the price range right now and few in the market represents real movement in the future, so volatility is inevitable and any news can set the price to the skies and organize the hard drawdown of foreign exchange rates. It seems that a correction occurred a week ago, and now we are again approaching the upper limits.
legendary
Activity: 1974
Merit: 1150
January 14, 2021, 02:53:32 PM
#94
The increase in bitcoin price has so far been uncontrollable so that the price is very volatile, which in turn causes high volatility. Of course the OP has understood enough about this.
Fluctuation is an inseparable part of bitcoin because that is how trader profit. But I am pretty sure that bitcoin is currently experiencing high price volatility due to market trends. The 12% increase in the last 24 hours is what I mean.
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
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January 14, 2021, 02:41:25 PM
#93
The fact that the price volatility of bitcoin is capable of increasing with an increase in its price can be seen even in the example of the last rise in the price of bitcoin to $ 40,000. On January 10, the bitcoin price exceeded $ 40,000, and the very next day, on January 11, it dropped to $ 31,000, on January 12, it rose above $ 36,000. If you look at the CoinMarketCap table at this time, the price of bitcoin just jumped up and down by hundreds of dollars every few seconds. Previously, when its price was lower, such high volatility was not observed. You can imagine how its price will sometimes jump when it reaches a hundred thousand dollars or more

That's what the theory says

Both the rise and the fall are driven by institutional money going in and out of the market. Simple folks don't actively sell but they still accumulate religiously on pullbacks. This leads to an ever decreasing supply side because the number of bitcoins cannot significantly increase as there are only so many bitcoins (as opposed to, for example, gold, which supply is elastic). As a result, volatility is set to outrun the rise in prices, and this is exactly what we see happening right now. Eventually, the Bitcoin Big Rip event should occur (at least hypothetically)
sr. member
Activity: 2352
Merit: 245
January 14, 2021, 02:20:49 PM
#92
The fact that the price volatility of bitcoin is capable of increasing with an increase in its price can be seen even in the example of the last rise in the price of bitcoin to $ 40,000. On January 10, the bitcoin price exceeded $ 40,000, and the very next day, on January 11, it dropped to $ 31,000, on January 12, it rose above $ 36,000. If you look at the CoinMarketCap table at this time, the price of bitcoin just jumped up and down by hundreds of dollars every few seconds. Previously, when its price was lower, such high volatility was not observed. You can imagine how its price will sometimes jump when it reaches a hundred thousand dollars or more.

hero member
Activity: 3164
Merit: 675
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January 14, 2021, 12:44:56 PM
#91
See I try to understand that irrespective the higher price of cryptocurrency especially bitcoin in particular and falling of it many people still benefit from it, so even now many people mindset is to ensure that bitcoin keep on going up, but from my perspective I don't think out hundred percent (100%) in forum knows while bitcoin normally raise and the major causes of bitcoin falling, so it's unknown for we to debate such, everyone who invest in bitcoin is making profit now only.
That is the difference people have with the amount and the % deals. For example let's say you bought bitcoin from 10k, and it dropped to 8k, that would be a 20% fall and you would lose 2k per bitcoin right? That is just 2 thousand dollars and even though it is bad you could hold on and wait for it to go back above 10k which looks quite "close" because it is only 2 thousand dollars.

However reality is that when the price is 40 thousand dollars and drops to 32 thousand dollars, that is still a 20% fall, but this time around it is 8 thousand dollars instead of 2, and that makes people question what is going to happen next since they think it is harder to go up 8k versus 2k but it is still the 20% difference anyway so why should it be any different. Sure it requires more buys, but there is more money in the market anyway so it shouldn't really be too different if you ask me.
member
Activity: 627
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January 13, 2021, 04:39:10 AM
#90
High prices and high volatility are much related to one another. Because BTC has the feature of volatility. When it's the increases then there are guaranteed to stay for a long time. It can be collapse anytime so these two things depend on their own. Maximum time prices grow up and then it falls in a scam it is riskier. 
hero member
Activity: 1498
Merit: 711
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January 12, 2021, 10:40:08 AM
#89
See I try to understand that irrespective the higher price of cryptocurrency especially bitcoin in particular and falling of it many people still benefit from it, so even now many people mindset is to ensure that bitcoin keep on going up, but from my perspective I don't think out hundred percent (100%) in forum knows while bitcoin normally raise and the major causes of bitcoin falling, so it's unknown for we to debate such, everyone who invest in bitcoin is making profit now only.
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
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January 12, 2021, 09:36:49 AM
#88
This is it (most likely). Enjoy the ride
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
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September 13, 2020, 11:06:57 AM
#87
So, this means that these would be regarded as whales at this level, and as such if they should dump the coins they are holding in the market, it’s going to affect the market real big and the price will decrease

That's correct. But it's only one small detail of the much bigger picture

But, I think for Bitcoin we are getting passed that level, since the market cap is huge now

That's an illusion

The market cap is useless, no matter how huge it is. In fact, the bigger it gets, the less useful, or more harmful, it becomes. What actually matters is liquidity, and in terms of Bitcoin prices, it comes down to how many dollars are willing to buy how many bitcoins at current prices. And the point is, the higher the price, the less liquidity will be in the market, despite the market cap shooting through the roof. There's no way to get around this
full member
Activity: 455
Merit: 102
September 13, 2020, 09:42:43 AM
#86
I get what you’re talking about here, and seems he’s not really understanding. What you’re trying to say is that there are people who are holding a lot of bitcoins and when the price starts increasing , these people will then be holding huge amount of money in their wallet as the worth of the coins they bought have increased to a higher amount.

So, this means that these would be regarded as whales at this level, and as such if they should dump the coins they are holding in the market, it’s going to affect the market real big and the price will decrease. But, I think for Bitcoin we are getting passed that level, since the market cap is huge now, altcoins are the ones that are likely to experience such thing the more.
sr. member
Activity: 1190
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September 10, 2020, 08:55:03 AM
#85
I think high prices do not create high volatility because the price is not important for high volatility to occur. Of course, since volatile trading pairs will have price changes, the transaction volume will increase gradually, but I think that this increase will not occur due to high prices and the users who want to gain from volatility formed there will provide this increase. In other words, I do not think that high price can also cause high volatility as a product is likely to be volatile under all conditions regardless of price.


I agree, many say that YFI is a substitute for bitcoin simply because the price exceeds the price of bitcoin, even though the daily volume is still very small when compared to bitcoin.people only see the price even though there is no trading volume that occurs on a coin they still think that it is high volatility.
I think the volatility is when the volume of a coin exceeds half of its market cap for the assumption that if TRX has a market cap of 2.4B then a daily volume of more than 1B is considered high volatility even though the TRX price is only 0.03 $.
sr. member
Activity: 1974
Merit: 450
I think high prices do not create high volatility because the price is not important for high volatility to occur. Of course, since volatile trading pairs will have price changes, the transaction volume will increase gradually, but I think that this increase will not occur due to high prices and the users who want to gain from volatility formed there will provide this increase. In other words, I do not think that high price can also cause high volatility as a product is likely to be volatile under all conditions regardless of price.
IMO, the high price proves that the product of a project really has a very useful function. however, high prices prove that many people are using it, and need it. other than that, price reductions that might occur make people think that they are low prices. however, a high price does not mean that it has a high volatile. it depends on your needs and requests.
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
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In other words, I do not think that high price can also cause high volatility as a product is likely to be volatile under all conditions regardless of price

You don't want to say that volatility will stay the same at 100k as it is now with prices below 10k, do you? Indeed, I don't mean absolute values (as in dollars) but relative terms (as in percentages). When the price rose to 20k, did it stay there? Nope, and far from that. Or did it stay above 15k for long, both on the way up and on the way down? Not in the least

But that's it, volatility as it is
hero member
Activity: 1666
Merit: 629
I think high prices do not create high volatility because the price is not important for high volatility to occur. Of course, since volatile trading pairs will have price changes, the transaction volume will increase gradually, but I think that this increase will not occur due to high prices and the users who want to gain from volatility formed there will provide this increase. In other words, I do not think that high price can also cause high volatility as a product is likely to be volatile under all conditions regardless of price.
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