High prices mean even higher volatility - page 6.

Duogembrot

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Quote from: deisik on December 12, 2017, 03:05:34 AM

Quote from: Hydrogen on December 11, 2017, 09:22:34 PM

With higher bitcoin prices, it could be a good practice to look at percentage shifts rather than quantity of dollars or other btc might be exchanged for. While the dollar amount of price shifts increases as bitcoin's price rises higher, the percentage rates of price shifts appears to be stabilising. Bitcoin is becoming less volatile over time, in terms of percentage shifts, as it becomes a more known phenomena and things like forks are better known and understood with a prior historical precedent.

Bitcoin is not becoming less volatile

Why do you people not read the OP? I mentioned there that Bitcoin is going even more volatile as the price rises. And yes, I mean relative changes, I think in relative changes if you please, i.e. changes in percentages specifically. I've even given an example above which proves that. Now we just need Bitcoin to go down as low as 6-7k dollars to prove me right. Or we could at first surge as high as 25k and then fall back to 10k dollars. This is not because of external factors affecting Bitcoin (though they certainly do). This is due to Bitcoin limited supply and the inverse relationship between Bitcoin supply and its price, most of the time

bringing bitcoin back to a 6-7k dollar price is very unlikely, the more logic it is for people who know the benefits of having bitcoin then they will buy as much bitcoin as possible no matter what price there is if the investor or the bank is in dire need then the price is expensive.

deisik

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Quote from: Hydrogen on December 11, 2017, 09:22:34 PM

With higher bitcoin prices, it could be a good practice to look at percentage shifts rather than quantity of dollars or other btc might be exchanged for. While the dollar amount of price shifts increases as bitcoin's price rises higher, the percentage rates of price shifts appears to be stabilising. Bitcoin is becoming less volatile over time, in terms of percentage shifts, as it becomes a more known phenomena and things like forks are better known and understood with a prior historical precedent.

Bitcoin is not becoming less volatile

Why do you people not read the OP? I mentioned there that Bitcoin is going even more volatile as the price rises. And yes, I mean relative changes, I think in relative changes if you please, i.e. changes in percentages specifically. I've even given an example above which proves that. Now we just need Bitcoin to go down as low as 6-7k dollars to prove me right. Or we could at first surge as high as 25k and then fall back to 10k dollars. This is not because of external factors affecting Bitcoin (though they certainly do). This is due to Bitcoin limited supply and the inverse relationship between Bitcoin supply and its price, most of the time

Hydrogen

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I think part of what made bitcoin volatility high were the unknown factors. No one could predict how bitcoin's price would respond in the event of a fork. What effect would SEC verdicts on bitcoin ETF's have? There were many unknown variables which caused its price to fluctuate wildly.

As time goes on and variables relating to bitcoin price become greater quantified, we will likely see reduced volatility. Forks won't have as large of an influence on price. SEC announcements and other news which we've seen before will have less of an effect.

With higher bitcoin prices, it could be a good practice to look at percentage shifts rather than quantity of dollars or other btc might be exchanged for. While the dollar amount of price shifts increases as bitcoin's price rises higher, the percentage rates of price shifts appears to be stabilising. Bitcoin is becoming less volatile over time, in terms of percentage shifts, as it becomes a more known phenomena and things like forks are better known and understood with a prior historical precedent.

ivrynx

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It is true, but should be a chance that you must be willing to take, since not all who ate i vesting in bitcoin are knowledagble on how investing works, they might be just trying to go along with the the, FOMOs or worst tryin to show others they didn't profit, always take into consideration that people will be impluse buying whenever there will an airdrop that is coming up and will do panic selling whenever they hear a negstve news, and since bitcoin is global, there is a higher volatility rate, just like, since gold is also being traded around the globe.

mifanmuzny

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Definitely but my techniques is i move with the tide market volatility is inevitable so best thing is to over come it by riding the wave..

deisik

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Quote from: Harlot on December 11, 2017, 01:27:02 PM

Add also the buyer's confidence and traders emotions into the mix it will be more volatile. The higher prices of Bitcoin will create a stir on people and they will begin to start doubting their decisions on having Bitcoin which can make them be more susceptible on having bad decisions. The higher Bitcoin will get the more panic it will stir when it will correct or when whales will start to offload considerable amount of Bitcoin resulting into massive price decreases.

We should also add one more thing to the "mix"

I didn't investigate into this matter specifically, but if cash-settled Bitcoin futures are allowed, that would add massively to Bitcoin volatility since this is what happens whenever people can trade "paper" whatever (for example, paper gold). Essentially, the introduction of cash-settled futures would make it possible to short Bitcoin to death. Since Bitcoin has no real world use (unlike gold, oil, or whatever), it can be literally shorted to zero (and below)

Harlot

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Add also the buyer's confidence and traders emotions into the mix it will be more volatile. The higher prices of Bitcoin will create a stir on people and they will begin to start doubting their decisions on having Bitcoin which can make them be more susceptible on having bad decisions. The higher Bitcoin will get the more panic it will stir when it will correct or when whales will start to offload considerable amount of Bitcoin resulting into massive price decreases.

deisik

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Quote from: webtricks on December 11, 2017, 11:59:39 AM

I thought you have something new to say but this thread is similar to thousands of replies people post in most of the Economics section threads concentrating on the same idea of Demand-Supply with little addition of volatility aspect indeed.
For me, volatility is defined in relative term and that is Percentage. Absolute measure cannot be taken as base for comparing variation in an attribute over two different time period. Now suppose, there are two coins, one worth $1 and other worth $10,000. First varies between $0.2-$5 everyday whereas second varies between $9900-$11000. In absolute term, second coin is indeed fluctuating more than first but still in relative terms (which is general basis of comparison), first coin is more volatile.
So based on above argument, I think High price alone can't mean higher volatility. If percentage change is similar to previous periods,
Volatility is Constant <- Can you feel the pun here Cheesy

Did you read the thread title?

It reads High prices mean even higher volatility (emphasis added). Do you know what that means or do you have difficulty understanding the meaning? Do you see the difference between high volatility and higher volatility or is it too subtle for you? You may also want to read the OP carefully again (if you read it in the first place) paying particular attention to the terms I used. Since I specifically pointed it out that I mean relative (i.e. percentages) and not absolute changes. Basically, you're not challenging my point, you're challenging your misunderstanding of it

stan_almighty1

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Yeah man, High price means high profit and high volatility . It's fairness.

webtricks

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I thought you have something new to say but this thread is similar to thousands of replies people post in most of the Economics section threads concentrating on the same idea of Demand-Supply with little addition of volatility aspect indeed.
For me, volatility is defined in relative term and that is Percentage. Absolute measure cannot be taken as base for comparing variation in an attribute over two different time period. Now suppose, there are two coins, one worth $1 and other worth $10,000. First varies between $0.2-$5 everyday whereas second varies between $9900-$11000. In absolute term, second coin is indeed fluctuating more than first but still in relative terms (which is general basis of comparison), first coin is more volatile.
So based on above argument, I think High price alone can't mean higher volatility. If percentage change is similar to previous periods,
Volatility is Constant <- Can you feel the pun here Cheesy

deisik

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Quote from: cryptocrusher on December 11, 2017, 11:12:30 AM

Quote from: deisik on December 11, 2017, 03:43:41 AM

Quote from: cryptocrusher on December 10, 2017, 07:34:30 PM

I don't fully understand the logic behind there being more volatility at higher prices, in terms of dollar swings then sure but in terms of percentage swings I don't see how the higher price could lead to that? In fact I probably see more of the opposite, higher prices generally will mean more adoption, more adoption means money better spread means less possibilities for manipulation.

I'm curious what you actually see

Because if you looked at price charts you would certainly see the opposite picture. For example, when Bitcoin first reached the 6k dollar mark it crashed back to 4k, then it went up to almost 8k and corrected to 5.4k. Now we are at 15k, and how low do you think we will go? Further, there is no adoption of Bitcoin in real economy. Steam just dropped it. It is adoption between speculators, but I can't fathom how that could mean less volatility. In fact, it does the opposite

I do not mean from a historical point of view I am speaking from a purely theory based point of view. I do not see the logical connect between prices being higher leading to more volatility in percentage terms. Of course we can look back and see that there is more volatility lately but I think that is because with the increasing price bitcoin are changing hands far more often. If we were to reach a higher price and be relatively stable there I do not see how that would cause more volatility in itself.

Okay, let's speak theory here

If we proceed from the fact that the supply of bitcoins is limited, higher prices may mean less supply provided the coins are being stashed away (which they are). The latter necessarily means that there is no direct relationship between prices and supply (i.e. the higher the price, the higher the supply), which is the case with goods or assets the supply of which can be increased (for example, due to expansion of production). This, in its turn, means that a smaller number of coins can cause stronger price changes or fluctuations, i.e. volatility. In other words, Bitcoin becomes susceptible to sudden bursts of volatility when some whale decides to buy into or cash out of Bitcoin

cryptocrusher

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Quote from: deisik on December 11, 2017, 03:43:41 AM

Quote from: cryptocrusher on December 10, 2017, 07:34:30 PM

I don't fully understand the logic behind there being more volatility at higher prices, in terms of dollar swings then sure but in terms of percentage swings I don't see how the higher price could lead to that? In fact I probably see more of the opposite, higher prices generally will mean more adoption, more adoption means money better spread means less possibilities for manipulation.

I'm curious what you actually see

Because if you looked at price charts you would certainly see the opposite picture. For example, when Bitcoin first reached the 6k dollar mark it crashed back to 4k, then it went up to almost 8k and corrected to 5.4k. Now we are at 15k, and how low do you think we will go? Further, there is no adoption of Bitcoin in real economy. Steam just dropped it. It is adoption between speculators, but I can't fathom how that could mean less volatility. In fact, it does the opposite

I do not mean from a historical point of view I am speaking from a purely theory based point of view. I do not see the logical connect between prices being higher leading to more volatility in percentage terms. Of course we can look back and see that there is more volatility lately but I think that is because with the increasing price bitcoin are changing hands far more often. If we were to reach a higher price and be relatively stable there I do not see how that would cause more volatility in itself.

deisik

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Quote from: cryptocrusher on December 10, 2017, 07:34:30 PM

I don't fully understand the logic behind there being more volatility at higher prices, in terms of dollar swings then sure but in terms of percentage swings I don't see how the higher price could lead to that? In fact I probably see more of the opposite, higher prices generally will mean more adoption, more adoption means money better spread means less possibilities for manipulation.

I'm curious what you actually see

Because if you looked at price charts you would certainly see the opposite picture. For example, when Bitcoin first reached the 6k dollar mark it crashed back to 4k, then it went up to almost 8k and corrected to 5.4k. Now we are at 15k, and how low do you think we will go? Further, there is no adoption of Bitcoin in real economy. Steam just dropped it. It is adoption between speculators, but I can't fathom how that could mean less volatility. In fact, it does the opposite

Granxis

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The high price certainly brings with it the high volatility it is very clear and clear. Speaking of Bitcoin, when a high fidelity arrives, there are sudden drops and then the old fiyata comes back. It happens at times when this is the opposite, but very rare. For example after segwit was canceled there were very interesting movements in the price of Bitcoin.

pinkflower

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Quote from: squatz1 on December 10, 2017, 05:03:02 PM

High prices aren't going to help anyone, and it's the thing that's pretty shit. Like yes, it may end up helping out the miners and the people that are trading. But in the long run for Bitcoin it's not going to help the people that have been here from the start and want to see Bitcoin survive and thrive through these times. We want to see Bitcoin used by companies, people, etc. We like that the price is up, but does it do anything for us? No.

More volatility is going to kill us, sadly.

BTC is already being used by some companies and a particular group of people, but saying that it will be adopted by the mainstream for everyday transactions is a negative. I think theres no need for that.

Why would I waste censorship resistance for a coffee transaction?

bewbielicious

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I don't think high prices mean higher volatility for sure , it just improves that that thing is really valuable and many people want to have it in their pocket.

cryptocrusher

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I don't fully understand the logic behind there being more volatility at higher prices, in terms of dollar swings then sure but in terms of percentage swings I don't see how the higher price could lead to that? In fact I probably see more of the opposite, higher prices generally will mean more adoption, more adoption means money better spread means less possibilities for manipulation.

ladydark

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Its true that the volatile nature of bitcoin price itself has stopped bitcoin from being used as a currency.If it had not been used by dark markets earlier,i think that its price would not have increased this much by gaining attention of more investors world wide,it would have been used as a currency for what mainly it was created.

deisik

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Quote from: squatz1 on December 10, 2017, 05:03:02 PM

High prices aren't going to help anyone, and it's the thing that's pretty shit. Like yes, it may end up helping out the miners and the people that are trading. But in the long run for Bitcoin it's not going to help the people that have been here from the start and want to see Bitcoin survive and thrive through these times. We want to see Bitcoin used by companies, people, etc. We like that the price is up, but does it do anything for us? No.

But how are we going to get there?

Note that Bitcoin itself may have to die eventually (don't shoot the messenger, yeah), as you yourself said succumbing to volatility issues (and it kinda looks there is no way back for it anyway), but what about other coins? They don't have to be another Bitcoin, a Bitcoin-like coin, i.e. just a vehicle for speculation without any real world use. Is it ever possible for some flavor of crypto to get there at the end of the day? I mean it being used by companies and people as a true means of payment? Or are we stuck in a sort of deadlock with any crypto ultimately turning into a Bitcoin?

squatz1

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Flying Hellfish is a Commie

High prices aren't going to help anyone, and it's the thing that's pretty shit. Like yes, it may end up helping out the miners and the people that are trading. But in the long run for Bitcoin it's not going to help the people that have been here from the start and want to see Bitcoin survive and thrive through these times. We want to see Bitcoin used by companies, people, etc. We like that the price is up, but does it do anything for us? No.

More volatility is going to kill us, sadly.

Topic: High prices mean even higher volatility - page 6. (Read 1580 times)