I agree about the relative appreciation against other currencies.
When you say buy the dollar, what would you be buying it with? I assume the dollar is the default form of money.
I haven't had much faith in the stock market over the last few years, but have started trading again, and I'll give you an interesting example. I have a company pension that gets thrown into a bullshit portfolio of mutual funds and bonds with limited options. I don't really touch anything in it, and made about a 15% return in a year. I consider that a crappy investment, but decent return for managing it passively.
Has the fed talked about a possible QE4? I just hear them talking about hinting at an interest rate hike, and then delaying it, pushing the markets higher each time.
I am using EURO, and given the fact that the EUR/USD is dropping now for 6 months straight, if i would hold my money in dollar i would be better off. Off course not in a bank account, either in cash or a trading account. And the eurozone really doesnt like people holding dollar over here....
But i`m talking about short term trading here, i dont have any confidence in the dollar in the 5 year term.
Also your stock market investment will probably evaporate after the FED stops the printing press. And if they dont then it could go up, however the underlying dollar would eventually evaporate.
A US. stock is a derivative of the dollar so if the FED prints a bunch of dollars to buy a few stocks then unless you pick the specific stocks that are bought (or the indices) then you wont see big return.
I mean its already inneficient with the comission and the trickleing effect, i bet that for every 1% inflation you are lucky to gain 0.7% stock market growth, so its absolutely not efficient (ok those numbers are not exact, but its not 1:1 ratio definitely).
And because of this a rally in the stock market from inflated money is really a shitty investment as you would not beat inflation that way.
Yeah I didn't expect the recent rise of the USD either. What country/city are you living in, if you don't mind me asking?
I don't have confidence in the dollar, similar to yourself, and haven't had confidence for a few years now, however the game goes on. Banks fail and they're bailed out. The debt ceiling is reached and then extended. Interest rates stay low which creates asset bubbles and encourages speculation, and the game still goes on. The poor depend on income and the wealthy depend on investments. Incomes don't rise while investments do. This is just my observation over the last few years, and I am okay putting a certain % of my equity into the market given the risk.
The market as a whole has definitely beat the inflation rate historically (but I know inflation numbers can be measured in weird ways to manipulate the outcome). Perhaps overall cost of living is a better indicator. I think the stock market makes 7%/year on average, and government measured inflation is less than that, actual inflation - who knows. I live in Toronto and our publicized inflation rate is very low, however house prices around here have doubled in the past ~7 years (different areas will have different rates of appreciation), so the cost of living has increased significantly as well. For those that have participated in those gains, it hasn't been a bad transition, but for people that were not home owners, it's an uphill battle.
Well since interest rates have been held very low, pension funds are being invested into the market consistently, into blue chip, stable equities. So I have invested in these heavily regulated cash cows. Canadian banks and telecoms fit into this picture. Look into it. The stock price holds a price/dividend yield ratio of about 4%. Each company raises the dividends each year, which pushes the stock price. Each company also posts higher revenues each year, and there regulation doesn't allow for new competition. I don't consider these risky investments. If the dollar collapses, you're right that these investments will fall, but the implications of a collapse will be much greater than losing a few thousand bucks in the market. You'd need to worry about your safety when people no longer trust money. There would be martial law and weapons would have very high worth.