From a chart/technical perspective, since we broke through the recent lows of 88 and 79, the price needs to retest the post-bubble low of 50, IMHO.
If we hold and bounce from there on huge volume (capitulation/panic/pain that clears out the sellers), we should begin to head higher.
Just in case this high-probability scenario doesn't play out, I have been buying a little in 5 increments on the way down. If this scenario does happen, I will load up in the low 50s.
Topic: I am fucking panicking - page 7. (Read 15822 times)
I sold over half my holdings at 31.50 long, long ago... its all a matter of perspective. At the time I had a 400% profit at 31.50 ;p
This only looks low due to where we've been recently. Go back a year and a half, and 70 looks awesome
This only looks low due to where we've been recently. Go back a year and a half, and 70 looks awesome
The price volatility is because of people like you who get their coins very cheap....they can dump it any time with profit, I think when those earlier adopters runs out BTC ,the price will eventually steady....but how long ?no one knows it......
I sold over half my holdings at 31.50 long, long ago... its all a matter of perspective. At the time I had a 400% profit at 31.50 ;p
This only looks low due to where we've been recently. Go back a year and a half, and 70 looks awesome
This only looks low due to where we've been recently. Go back a year and a half, and 70 looks awesome
Now here is where it gets scary, and if you as a investor/trader/speculator ignore the feeling of panic, you risk becoming a bag holder. And I feel for the bag holders, I have been there (in other markets) and it's not a nice feeling. Combine my fundamental analysis with a technical analysis...when it goes below the 200 day SMA, you have a confirmed bear trend, and it's more than likely going lower.
+1 i got out and i was like damn i took a loss. some gain some loss. so glad i did most befor the 130 fall and kicked my self for not selling more at 101 and 94 respectivly. now im like thank the gods i got out alllllllllll the way out. ok three btc for old times sake but i wil buy if it goes to sub 40 i will buy a lot!!!!!edit: wow add kicked in there, the point is ya get out now and kick your self or wait and get out at half this at 35 up to you. im not a bear im not a bull im a realist.
Now here is where it gets scary, and if you as a investor/trader/speculator ignore the feeling of panic, you risk becoming a bag holder. And I feel for the bag holders, I have been there (in other markets) and it's not a nice feeling. Combine my fundamental analysis with a technical analysis...when it goes below the 200 day SMA, you have a confirmed bear trend, and it's more than likely going lower.
I am seriously considering getting out of this game.
You really should, before 'the collapse'.
(SO I CAN BUY THEM ALL!!!
)ha thanks for buying up all my cheep coins ;0 now i can buy back in sub 50.
Congrats for reaching top spot on google when searching for "fucking panicking"
Thank you.
The BTC economy is very very thin, in fact it does not exist. Pirate, GLSBE, the various bitcoin banks failed for the same reason, having faith should not be the basis of an economy. BTC currently has one and only one value added purpose: to facility the exchange of goods with the added bonus of little or no regulation. However, once it does become regulated, it's value will diminish to the illicit goods trader. Which means, it's value will then be determined by what the long-term holders think it's worth. But, as I tell all real world traders, a previous price point or trend, does not indicate a future value.
In other words, it's value is based on what a counterparty is willing to pay - on any given day. An investor looks at the fundamentals, a trader learns to love the volatility, a speculator wins big or looses big(but mostly just depends on luck when he buys and sells). But a trader also knows when to step out of the way, when the train rolls downhill.
In other words, it's value is based on what a counterparty is willing to pay - on any given day. An investor looks at the fundamentals, a trader learns to love the volatility, a speculator wins big or looses big(but mostly just depends on luck when he buys and sells). But a trader also knows when to step out of the way, when the train rolls downhill.
Pirate didn't fail at all. Pirate did a very successful scam, he did steal more than BTC500k and now its filthy reach. How is that failing?
What an excellent discussion in a few of the more "mature" responses.
Much more interesting read than what i expected from such an OP.
Much more interesting read than what i expected from such an OP.
If I owned more than a double digit amount of bitcoin, I would indeed have sold when the price was bouncing around $95-$110, aiming to buy in again lower and increase my stash. I had an inkling that the price would slowly fall, but imo normal TA doesn't apply as accurately to BTC as it does to any other commodity/share/investment, so I chose to play it safe and hold.
I did some day trading (albeit tentatively) during the major bubble earlier this year, and increased my BTC holdings by about 30%, which was nice. Obviously this was due to the massive volatility, which has understandably subsided.
However, with the small amount of bitcoin I own (some of which I mined, some of which I bought at around 30-40 GBP [gutted I didn't save some of the 200+ bitcoin I spent in the last year through you know where] when it was priced at £6-8), and some of which I won on Seals (1btc>5 in less than a month) I don't feel it's worth the risk to try and make an extra couple of coins with the risk of losing more. Hence I am holding and going long due to my low capital.
If I owned triple or quadruple+ digit BTC I would definitely be trying to play the market and earn some significant assets.
But for me, right now, it seems obvious to hold the majority (70%) of my stash - the rest is going into silver and Litecoin.
Even if the value drops to 1/4 of what I bought in at, I won't panic, just buy probably more coin.
I think we are closer to global economic meltdown than most people think - I'm not saying it will happen overnight, could 1, 2, 5, 10 years, but when it does happen (which I do believe it will) things will kick off big style. And that's when the properties of bitcoin will show their true colours.
I did some day trading (albeit tentatively) during the major bubble earlier this year, and increased my BTC holdings by about 30%, which was nice. Obviously this was due to the massive volatility, which has understandably subsided.
However, with the small amount of bitcoin I own (some of which I mined, some of which I bought at around 30-40 GBP [gutted I didn't save some of the 200+ bitcoin I spent in the last year through you know where] when it was priced at £6-8), and some of which I won on Seals (1btc>5 in less than a month) I don't feel it's worth the risk to try and make an extra couple of coins with the risk of losing more. Hence I am holding and going long due to my low capital.
If I owned triple or quadruple+ digit BTC I would definitely be trying to play the market and earn some significant assets.
But for me, right now, it seems obvious to hold the majority (70%) of my stash - the rest is going into silver and Litecoin.
Even if the value drops to 1/4 of what I bought in at, I won't panic, just buy probably more coin.
I think we are closer to global economic meltdown than most people think - I'm not saying it will happen overnight, could 1, 2, 5, 10 years, but when it does happen (which I do believe it will) things will kick off big style. And that's when the properties of bitcoin will show their true colours.
The BTC economy is very very thin, in fact it does not exist. Pirate, GLSBE, the various bitcoin banks failed for the same reason, having faith should not be the basis of an economy. BTC currently has one and only one value added purpose: to facility the exchange of goods with the added bonus of little or no regulation. However, once it does become regulated, it's value will diminish to the illicit goods trader. Which means, it's value will then be determined by what the long-term holders think it's worth. But, as I tell all real world traders, a previous price point or trend, does not indicate a future value.
In other words, it's value is based on what a counterparty is willing to pay - on any given day. An investor looks at the fundamentals, a trader learns to love the volatility, a speculator wins big or looses big(but mostly just depends on luck when he buys and sells). But a trader also knows when to step out of the way, when the train rolls downhill.
In other words, it's value is based on what a counterparty is willing to pay - on any given day. An investor looks at the fundamentals, a trader learns to love the volatility, a speculator wins big or looses big(but mostly just depends on luck when he buys and sells). But a trader also knows when to step out of the way, when the train rolls downhill.
you can't say it doesn't have value.
It doesn't have value.
According to the bitcoin foundation:
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/2877271/Bitcoin-Foundation-Response-to-California-DFI.pdf
My point, is the fundamentals of long-term BTC holdings are not sound investing.
wheat, oil, etc. However, those items have an end use, ie convert to energy (machine or human energy).
What is the intrinsic value of BTC when there is no general tax revenue to back up BTC?
Back to basics:
Btc is worth something because it has a use. It can be used as money. Money has value.
If you want to talk about price, it boils down to this: How much will it be used, and for what? Is it the best money available? For everything, or only for certain niches? etc. ..
EDIT: of course, wheat and oil will always be used, bitcoin might not be, so its more risky in that aspect. But imo, you can't say it doesn't have value.
That feeling of panic is a good sign, it's a sign you are not comfortable with your current allocation.
It's a sign that you might be able to look at BTC with less awe, and more realism. I can't emphasis this enough, holding onto BTC for longer than a day is not investing, it's a bet that you will be able to sell at the right time. Don't get me wrong, I make bets that I will be on the right side of the volatility trade all the time. My point, is the fundamentals of long-term BTC holdings are not sound investing.
Investing is generally the based on the belief that "stored value" will be worth more in the future, than it's present value. But right now the value is based on supply & demand. In other words, the Psychology of the BTC holders. If every single BTC holder decided to sell at the same time, the value would be nil. If more people want to buy, the value increases. But you can say that for a number of things, wheat, oil, etc. However, those items have an end use, ie convert to energy (machine or human energy).
What is the intrinsic value of BTC when there is no general tax revenue to back up BTC? What value do you want to assign to it today? tomorrow? Okay, what about everyone else? And that's a problem, a problem that creates the huge price swings. You can do a technical analysis, and on a short-term basis it works, but fundamentals will rule the long term.
Instead of talking about BTC, lets talk about investing in forex. The reason most traders speculate in one currency over another is due to the economy. Is the county that sponsors the currency increasing it's value above the money supply? (using a very loose definition of value & money supply here) So what is the value of BTC economy? There is none, or very little - it's really just a knowledge based economy.
There is another measure we could use to place a fiat value on a single BTC, and that is the cost to produce one BTC in the fiat. ie how much did it cost in electricity, hardware & knowledge to produce that single BTC. However, the dynamics are rapidly changing due to the large scale introduction of ASICS.
Also, there is under appreciated dynamic due to small scale miners being forced to either become a large scale miner with a large investment in equipment or exit the mining game. Large scale investment, usually means people who are liquid enough that they can hold BTC for the right price, ie they don't need the money and are not forced into selling. In other words, their BTC holdings are a fraction of their overall portfolio. But, this also means they can take a loss if they feel that it's no longer worth the risk of further downgrades.
With a decent number of BTC transactions used to facility the trading of illicit goods, you have to look at the big picture. If you take it to an extreme conclusion, the miners & Bitcoin Foundation are supporting the trading of illicit goods. And that's why I think many BTC evangelists hate the idea of being licensed, regulated or subject to some taxing authority. However, having one exchange responsible for 80% of BTC exchanges, is just asking for trouble. Basically, there is a real possibility that the exchange of BTC to USD may become impossible, either due to legal issues or lack of access to exchanges. And that will cause a supply & demand imbalance that cannot be corrected.
I would point out a recent technical change has created an interesting long-term positive for BTC. The current bitcoind software is configured to generate a limited number of BTC. However, the number of orphaned BTC or lost wallets is increasing daily. The new minimum transaction cost will create even more orphaned BTC, as it becomes uneconomical to consolidate small wallets. If you assume Gavin increases the transaction costs over time, even more orphaned BTC will occur. This has the long-term effect of decreasing the supply of BTC.
It's a sign that you might be able to look at BTC with less awe, and more realism. I can't emphasis this enough, holding onto BTC for longer than a day is not investing, it's a bet that you will be able to sell at the right time. Don't get me wrong, I make bets that I will be on the right side of the volatility trade all the time. My point, is the fundamentals of long-term BTC holdings are not sound investing.
Investing is generally the based on the belief that "stored value" will be worth more in the future, than it's present value. But right now the value is based on supply & demand. In other words, the Psychology of the BTC holders. If every single BTC holder decided to sell at the same time, the value would be nil. If more people want to buy, the value increases. But you can say that for a number of things, wheat, oil, etc. However, those items have an end use, ie convert to energy (machine or human energy).
What is the intrinsic value of BTC when there is no general tax revenue to back up BTC? What value do you want to assign to it today? tomorrow? Okay, what about everyone else? And that's a problem, a problem that creates the huge price swings. You can do a technical analysis, and on a short-term basis it works, but fundamentals will rule the long term.
Instead of talking about BTC, lets talk about investing in forex. The reason most traders speculate in one currency over another is due to the economy. Is the county that sponsors the currency increasing it's value above the money supply? (using a very loose definition of value & money supply here) So what is the value of BTC economy? There is none, or very little - it's really just a knowledge based economy.
There is another measure we could use to place a fiat value on a single BTC, and that is the cost to produce one BTC in the fiat. ie how much did it cost in electricity, hardware & knowledge to produce that single BTC. However, the dynamics are rapidly changing due to the large scale introduction of ASICS.
Also, there is under appreciated dynamic due to small scale miners being forced to either become a large scale miner with a large investment in equipment or exit the mining game. Large scale investment, usually means people who are liquid enough that they can hold BTC for the right price, ie they don't need the money and are not forced into selling. In other words, their BTC holdings are a fraction of their overall portfolio. But, this also means they can take a loss if they feel that it's no longer worth the risk of further downgrades.
With a decent number of BTC transactions used to facility the trading of illicit goods, you have to look at the big picture. If you take it to an extreme conclusion, the miners & Bitcoin Foundation are supporting the trading of illicit goods. And that's why I think many BTC evangelists hate the idea of being licensed, regulated or subject to some taxing authority. However, having one exchange responsible for 80% of BTC exchanges, is just asking for trouble. Basically, there is a real possibility that the exchange of BTC to USD may become impossible, either due to legal issues or lack of access to exchanges. And that will cause a supply & demand imbalance that cannot be corrected.
I would point out a recent technical change has created an interesting long-term positive for BTC. The current bitcoind software is configured to generate a limited number of BTC. However, the number of orphaned BTC or lost wallets is increasing daily. The new minimum transaction cost will create even more orphaned BTC, as it becomes uneconomical to consolidate small wallets. If you assume Gavin increases the transaction costs over time, even more orphaned BTC will occur. This has the long-term effect of decreasing the supply of BTC.
This reminds of when it went down to 50 something before. I got some cheap coins back then and my fiat is ready
Maybe Satoshi designed it to eventually balance out at around $100 just to make it easy to think about/convert?
I am buying silver also. The more it goes down, I think great! Buy more!
Hey Bitbryan - How did you type the B with lines?
I am buying silver also. The more it goes down, I think great! Buy more!
Hey Bitbryan - How did you type the B with lines?
click the b symbol on the top of your reply
Congrats for reaching top spot on google when searching for "fucking panicking"
I laughed
Congrats for reaching top spot on google when searching for "fucking panicking"
That's because you visited the thread before;)Nope , just tested with a local webproxy , same result
Also ,Congratulation to this thread become world panicking example...what outsiders will think of us??haha
Congrats for reaching top spot on google when searching for "fucking panicking"
That's because you visited the thread before;)Nope , just tested with a local webproxy , same result
Congrats for reaching top spot on google when searching for "fucking panicking"
That's because you visited the thread before;)Nope , just tested with a local webproxy , same result
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