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Topic: I have made a 25% return this week trading *against* the pirate - page 2. (Read 12598 times)

hero member
Activity: 501
Merit: 500
Even if Pirate can make 10.65% per week (up to what amount? These never scale up infinitely. Actually, at that kind of return rate the limit should be reached very quickly.), it makes absolutely no sense to borrow such huge amounts of bitcoins at several-hundred-percent annual interest rate. He should have gotten a loan in fiat. He says he knows rich investors etcetera. He could have borrowed a million dollars and bought at least 250kbtc when they were cheaper.

And the argument that he can't buy bitcoins because he'd move the market is ridiculous. As if other people acquiring and tying up bitcoins in his scheme doesn't move the market exactly the same way.

Sounds as if you have a solid business plan to kick Pirate's ass out of the market.  Take a run at it.

I don't have a business plan that would generate such ridiculous returns. These kinds of extremely high growth businesses occur very rarely, and almost never they grow at 10% weekly rate (which ends up to 14,000% annually. For percent-growth-challenged, this means the business grows 140-fold in size during the period of one year). And the growth phase lasts only until the business fills its "ecological niche", at which point the growth dies out.

Let's make a thought experiment: What if Pirate had such a high-growth scheme, and had done as I suggested? 10% a week. In bitcoins. Let's say he'd have taken a $1M loan at 5% interest rate (to be paid twice a year) and monthly repayments of $50k (at the end of each month). Let's again assume he keeps $200k as a dollar reserve initially, so that he can make the first four payments no matter what. So. Within the first two months, he buys, little by little, $800k worth of bitcoins (at the price of $5 per bitcoin), and at the same time, sets up his business, which starts to generate revenue in the beginning of the third month.

For the sake of simplicity, let's just assume each month has exactly four weeks, and that BTC price is stable at $5.

2 months: $100,000; BTC200,000; loan principal balance $900,000
3 months: $50,000; BTC292,820  - sell BTC10,000 to cover the loan repayment, and do this each month from now on
3 months: $100,000; BTC282,820; loan principal balance $850,000
4 months: $100,000; BTC404,077; loan principal balance $800,000
5 months: $100,000; BTC581,609; loan principal balance $750,000
Every 6 months, sell an additional BTC 5k to make the interest payment (is more than enough). Spend rest on drugs&whores.
6 months: $100,000; BTC836,534; loan principal balance $700,000
7 months: $100,000; BTC1,214,769; loan principal balance $650,000
8 months: $100,000; BTC1,768,543; loan principal balance $600,000
9 months: $100,000; BTC2,579,311; loan principal balance $550,000
10 months: $100,000; BTC3,766,369; loan principal balance $500,000
11 months: $100,000; BTC5,504,341; loan principal balance $450,000
12 months: $100,000; BTC8,043,906; loan principal balance $400,000

Okay, at this point he has 40% of all bitcoins that ever will exist, and retires, pays of his debt and enjoys his eight million BTCs.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
Even if Pirate can make 10.65% per week (up to what amount? These never scale up infinitely. Actually, at that kind of return rate the limit should be reached very quickly.), it makes absolutely no sense to borrow such huge amounts of bitcoins at several-hundred-percent annual interest rate. He should have gotten a loan in fiat. He says he knows rich investors etcetera. He could have borrowed a million dollars and bought at least 250kbtc when they were cheaper.

And the argument that he can't buy bitcoins because he'd move the market is ridiculous. As if other people acquiring and tying up bitcoins in his scheme doesn't move the market exactly the same way.

I've answered this 3 times already in various threads.  Check my posts if you really care.  Or try reading the BTCST thread, where you can hear it from the horse's mouth.  Seriously, do some reading.  It's all here.

TL;DR: he needs to have a large bitcoin reserve to operate and he prefers to not be at risk to a large drop in price

Exactly. Here is the Bitcoin Savings and Trust | Home thread and it is all there. https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-savings-and-trust-home-closed-50822. He is not prepared to accept exposure to a drop in the BTC / USD rate; however he is prepared to accept exposure to a sharp rise BTC / USD rate as no hedging strategy is 100% perfect. This is why I keep saying Pirate is a bear.

If you have 2.5 million USD in liabilities denominated in BTC and the BTC / USD rate rises to 10000 USD per BTC your 2.5 million USD in liabilities have now become 2.5 billion USD in liabilities at 0% interest and given the past history of BTC that is possible.  
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
I really should get paid for all the time I've spent tying this shit all together in various threads.  Instead, I'm reducing my long term profits by putting the picture together for people who may want to compete and drive down pirate's margins.  But if I can cut down on pirate FUD by 15% it will be worth it.  I spend a lot of time on these forums and frankly I'm at my FUD limit.

There, I sent you 1 BTC.

Now delete all these posts just in case someone gets any big ideas.  It's inevitable, but you're lowering the bar such that any retard can attempt to do this, and then we'll really have a mess when they crash out and lose the coins/get hacked/skip town.

"Oooh, I have 1,000 BTC from people.  I'm going to go bye-bye now and buy a...crappy car!"

Thanks!  I edited my post and I feel better now Smiley.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
Even if Pirate can make 10.65% per week (up to what amount? These never scale up infinitely. Actually, at that kind of return rate the limit should be reached very quickly.), it makes absolutely no sense to borrow such huge amounts of bitcoins at several-hundred-percent annual interest rate. He should have gotten a loan in fiat. He says he knows rich investors etcetera. He could have borrowed a million dollars and bought at least 250kbtc when they were cheaper.

And the argument that he can't buy bitcoins because he'd move the market is ridiculous. As if other people acquiring and tying up bitcoins in his scheme doesn't move the market exactly the same way.

I've answered this 3 times already in various threads.  Check my posts if you really care.  Or try reading the BTCST thread, where you can hear it from the horse's mouth.  Seriously, do some reading.  It's all here.

TL;DR: he needs to have a large bitcoin reserve to operate and he prefers to not be at risk to a large drop in price
hero member
Activity: 501
Merit: 500
Even if Pirate can make 10.65% per week (up to what amount? These never scale up infinitely. Actually, at that kind of return rate the limit should be reached very quickly.), it makes absolutely no sense to borrow such huge amounts of bitcoins at several-hundred-percent annual interest rate. He should have gotten a loan in fiat. He says he knows rich investors etcetera. He could have borrowed a million dollars and bought at least 250kbtc when they were cheaper.

And the argument that he can't buy bitcoins because he'd move the market is ridiculous. As if other people acquiring and tying up bitcoins in his scheme doesn't move the market exactly the same way.
vip
Activity: 574
Merit: 500
Don't send me a pm unless you gpg encrypt it.
very touchy guys .....

anyone would think you guys hadnt gotten your principals back out yet ..... Cheesy

We're all using smileys, none of us can be taken seriously.   Grin

 Roll Eyes
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 1000
very touchy guys .....

anyone would think you guys hadnt gotten your principals back out yet ..... Cheesy

We're all using smileys, none of us can be taken seriously.   Grin
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1000
Si vis pacem, para bellum
very touchy guys .....

anyone would think you guys hadnt gotten your principals back out yet ..... Cheesy
vip
Activity: 574
Merit: 500
Don't send me a pm unless you gpg encrypt it.
So,Pirate says  hes consistently making 10.65% a week ........Grin

http://gifsoup.com/webroot/animatedgifs/29807_o.gif

If you're going to troll, at least learn how it insert it properly into a posting.  Img tags aren't that hard, they're in that little toolbar each time you post.  Shocked
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 1000
So,Pirate says  hes consistently making 10.65% a week ........Grin

http://gifsoup.com/webroot/animatedgifs/29807_o.gif

Quit being so blatantly facetious! That was back in May anyways. Tongue
Sure, I net gross 10.65% per week and payout 5.98% on average and it really depends on how much I want to work.
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1000
Si vis pacem, para bellum
So,Pirate says  hes consistently making 10.65% a week ........Grin

http://gifsoup.com/webroot/animatedgifs/29807_o.gif
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
Why wouldn't he make both sides of the deal before agreeing to it?

Why does every anti-pirate FUDster assume pirate is retarded?

I don't get it.
Okay fine, then if you assume he makes 5% on every BTC trade he does (not outwith the realms of possibility) then he'd still have to trade somewhere in the region of 550k-600k BTC per week to break even...

And that's this week.
By october with trust accounts at the current rate he'd owe over a million BTC...

His average interest rate is roughly 2/3rds of the top tier and he has lowered his rate for many members multiple times.
Where do you get this from? There's a huge amount of cash tied up in "trust" accounts...

Okay, 2/3rds was slightly low, but here's the post I was thinking of (thanks for making me wast half an hour):
Would you be willing to disclose anything about your actual profit margins over the 7% weekly you pay for the use of funds?

The only good thing about this ever ending is that I'll find out what the hell it is. I might be able to replicate it in a different context .... Wink

Sure, I net gross 10.65% per week and payout 5.98% on average and it really depends on how much I want to work.  The process has become pretty automated lately which is nice because I can spend more time on my other projects and with the family. Smiley

Thanks for your polite and non-divulging question. Smiley

See.  When you ask him reasonable questions instead of spewing accusations he's actually a pretty reasonable guy.
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 1000
To be honest, all this would make a lovely story. Man runs a big scheme to have as many bitcoins under his control as possible... When he can no longer keep it running he makes a post saying that he defaults, then destroys all the keys to his coins and any other form of access, and kills himself. I believe that if he only destroyed access to the coins, would this truly have a permanent effect on the bitcoin economy as a whole, the suicide would just be the icing on the cake.

I'm in no way suggesting that I would enjoy or benefit from this happening... I just have a dark and twisted mind. Please don't kill yourself Pirate. Oh and don't run away with everyone's money either.

But it leaves a market opening for a Ponzi!  Good thinking!

I could imagine the pitch... We're the new Pirate, but different!

Reeses, is that you?

Hahahah, no, just a kindred spirit, apparently.

I don't know how to take that. So I'll take it as a compliment. :3
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
Why wouldn't he make both sides of the deal before agreeing to it?

Why does every anti-pirate FUDster assume pirate is retarded?

I don't get it.
Okay fine, then if you assume he makes 5% on every BTC trade he does (not outwith the realms of possibility) then he'd still have to trade somewhere in the region of 550k-600k BTC per week to break even...

And that's this week.
By october with trust accounts at the current rate he'd owe over a million BTC...

His average interest rate is roughly 2/3rds of the top tier and he has lowered his rate for many members multiple times.
Where do you get this from? There's a huge amount of cash tied up in "trust" accounts...
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 1000
To be honest, all this would make a lovely story. Man runs a big scheme to have as many bitcoins under his control as possible... When he can no longer keep it running he makes a post saying that he defaults, then destroys all the keys to his coins and any other form of access, and kills himself. I believe that if he only destroyed access to the coins, would this truly have a permanent effect on the bitcoin economy as a whole, the suicide would just be the icing on the cake.

I'm in no way suggesting that I would enjoy or benefit from this happening... I just have a dark and twisted mind. Please don't kill yourself Pirate. Oh and don't run away with everyone's money either.

Reeses, is that you?

Afraid not.
vip
Activity: 574
Merit: 500
Don't send me a pm unless you gpg encrypt it.
To be honest, all this would make a lovely story. Man runs a big scheme to have as many bitcoins under his control as possible... When he can no longer keep it running he makes a post saying that he defaults, then destroys all the keys to his coins and any other form of access, and kills himself. I believe that if he only destroyed access to the coins, would this truly have a permanent effect on the bitcoin economy as a whole, the suicide would just be the icing on the cake.

I'm in no way suggesting that I would enjoy or benefit from this happening... I just have a dark and twisted mind. Please don't kill yourself Pirate. Oh and don't run away with everyone's money either.

Reeses, is that you?
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 1000
Why wouldn't he make both sides of the deal before agreeing to it?

Why does every anti-pirate FUDster assume pirate is retarded?

I don't get it.
Okay fine, then if you assume he makes 5% on every BTC trade he does (not outwith the realms of possibility) then he'd still have to trade somewhere in the region of 550k-600k BTC per week to break even...

And that's this week.
By october with trust accounts at the current rate he'd owe over a million BTC...

His average interest rate is roughly 2/3rds of the top tier and he has lowered his rate for many members multiple times.

Why does every anti-pirate FUDster assume pirate is retarded?

I don't get it.

He's not "retarded". He is just going to default on his debt, and likely profit quite handsomely from stealing all the funds.

This is a mathematical certainty, and if you don't get it then you shouldn't really be doing any kind of wealth management. Because if you don't get it, it implies you don't understand the exponential function.

Or I don't assume constant terms like you do.  Pirate can, has, and will change his terms as necessary to keep himself profitable.  If this becomes no longer possible, I believe he will return the funds and enjoy the large amounts of money he has already made.  Too many people know how to find him and he doesn't want to abandon everything he knows.  Also, people take profits.  In fact, everything he holds of mine currently is profit.  I've withdrawn more than I've deposited by now.

To be honest, all this would make a lovely story. Man runs a big scheme to have as many bitcoins under his control as possible... When he can no longer keep it running he makes a post saying that he defaults, then destroys all the keys to his coins and any other form of access, and kills himself. I believe that if he only destroyed access to the coins, would this truly have a permanent effect on the bitcoin economy as a whole, the suicide would just be the icing on the cake.

I'm in no way suggesting that I would enjoy or benefit from this happening... I just have a dark and twisted mind. Please don't kill yourself Pirate. Oh and don't run away with everyone's money either.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
Why wouldn't he make both sides of the deal before agreeing to it?

Why does every anti-pirate FUDster assume pirate is retarded?

I don't get it.
Okay fine, then if you assume he makes 5% on every BTC trade he does (not outwith the realms of possibility) then he'd still have to trade somewhere in the region of 550k-600k BTC per week to break even...

And that's this week.
By october with trust accounts at the current rate he'd owe over a million BTC...

His average interest rate is roughly 2/3rds of the top tier and he has lowered his rate for many members multiple times.

Why does every anti-pirate FUDster assume pirate is retarded?

I don't get it.

He's not "retarded". He is just going to default on his debt, and likely profit quite handsomely from stealing all the funds.

This is a mathematical certainty, and if you don't get it then you shouldn't really be doing any kind of wealth management. Because if you don't get it, it implies you don't understand the exponential function.

Or I don't assume constant terms like you do.  Pirate can, has, and will change his terms as necessary to keep himself profitable.  If this becomes no longer possible, I believe he will return the funds and enjoy the large amounts of money he has already made.  Too many people know how to find him and he doesn't want to abandon everything he knows.  Also, people take profits.  In fact, everything he holds of mine currently is profit.  I've withdrawn more than I've deposited by now.
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1005
This is a mathematical certainty, and if you don't get it then you shouldn't really be doing any kind of wealth management. Because if you don't get it, it implies you don't understand the exponential function.

You're thinking of this in terms of bitcoins:



We're thinking of this regarding rate of return:



Which results in this as the assets under management by Pirate:

legendary
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1002
Why wouldn't he make both sides of the deal before agreeing to it?

Why does every anti-pirate FUDster assume pirate is retarded?

I don't get it.
Okay fine, then if you assume he makes 5% on every BTC trade he does (not outwith the realms of possibility) then he'd still have to trade somewhere in the region of 550k-600k BTC per week to break even...

And that's this week.
By october with trust accounts at the current rate he'd owe over a million BTC...

So, nobody will withdraw any money or get the interest paid? ALL Compounding MoronsTM?
Is that what you're saying, or am I misunderstanding you?
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