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Topic: I have made a 25% return this week trading *against* the pirate - page 3. (Read 12653 times)

sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
Why wouldn't he make both sides of the deal before agreeing to it?

Why does every anti-pirate FUDster assume pirate is retarded?

I don't get it.
Okay fine, then if you assume he makes 5% on every BTC trade he does (not outwith the realms of possibility) then he'd still have to trade somewhere in the region of 550k-600k BTC per week to break even...

And that's this week.
By october with trust accounts at the current rate he'd owe over a million BTC...
hero member
Activity: 501
Merit: 500
Why does every anti-pirate FUDster assume pirate is retarded?

I don't get it.

He's not "retarded". He is just going to default on his debt, and likely profit quite handsomely from stealing all the funds.

This is a mathematical certainty, and if you don't get it then you shouldn't really be doing any kind of wealth management. Because if you don't get it, it implies you don't understand the exponential function.
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1005
How about the fact that:

-He'd have to buy the coins back to have bitcoin to pay his investors, which would increase the price and eliminate some of that $0.5/BTC profit.

-Assuming he was able to buy back at $8.75 (unlikely, a 100000BTC buy order would move the market more than $0.25) then he'd have made a net profit of $0.25 per coin, or about 2.8%.

Lovely.
Now assuming those margins, he'd have to trade 1 million BTC per week, or about half the base of the entire currency every month, in order to just pay his interest. More if he actually wanted to take any profit for himself. I think I'm right in saying that's more than the entire volume at the various exchanges? Of course, trades on OTC are hard to quantify, but I have a very hard time thinking it's anything close to that...

There is in excess of 200,000 BTC exchanged per day, so easily more than 1.4mm per week.

Large trades are not made all at once. To move billions of dollars, the orders are broken up and run in stages. The same applies here.

A spider plans ahead, and the fly stumbles in. You're the fly, Pirate's a spider. There are many flies and few spiders.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002

In your example, price is 8.5.  He got paid 9.  Someone wants to sell a shit ton of bitcoins at current price.  Pirate makes $0.5/bitcoin.

What's the problem?
How about the fact that:

-He'd have to buy the coins back to have bitcoin to pay his investors, which would increase the price and eliminate some of that $0.5/BTC profit.

-Assuming he was able to buy back at $8.75 (unlikely, a 100000BTC buy order would move the market more than $0.25) then he'd have made a net profit of $0.25 per coin, or about 2.8%.

Lovely.
Now assuming those margins, he'd have to trade 1 million BTC per week, or about half the base of the entire currency every month, in order to just pay his interest. More if he actually wanted to take any profit for himself. I think I'm right in saying that's more than the entire volume at the various exchanges? Of course, trades on OTC are hard to quantify, but I have a very hard time thinking it's anything close to that...

Why wouldn't he make both sides of the deal before agreeing to it?

Why does every anti-pirate FUDster assume pirate is retarded?

I don't get it.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250

In your example, price is 8.5.  He got paid 9.  Someone wants to sell a shit ton of bitcoins at current price.  Pirate makes $0.5/bitcoin.

What's the problem?
How about the fact that:

-He'd have to buy the coins back to have bitcoin to pay his investors, which would increase the price and eliminate some of that $0.5/BTC profit.

-Assuming he was able to buy back at $8.75 (unlikely, a 100000BTC buy order would move the market more than $0.25) then he'd have made a net profit of $0.25 per coin, or about 2.8%.

Lovely.
Now assuming those margins, he'd have to trade 1 million BTC per week, or about half the base of the entire currency every month, in order to just pay his interest. More if he actually wanted to take any profit for himself. I think I'm right in saying that's more than the entire volume at the various exchanges? Of course, trades on OTC are hard to quantify, but I have a very hard time thinking it's anything close to that...
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1005
No. Silver is the currency in this example. In hyperinflation the relative value of the currency will fall drastically. That is what happened with sliver in 1980. As to why Pirate is a bear, my conclusion here is based mostly on Pirate's own threads and comments and some of the comments from his supporters. I then compare this with the market data and have reached my conclusions from the relationship between the pro Pirate comments and the market data.

Hyperinflation was averted for the currency (USD) in the period you're referring to. The Hunt brothers were forced to liquidate their holdings, so there was an excess of supply over a short time. It was also a known quantity, not unrestricted production at an exponential pace. Finally, I posed the hypothetical because silver was not an official currency in 1980. Without monetary demand, there wasn't enough industrial or investment demand for the quantity available.

I'm not sure how you've determined Bitcoin market data is bearish. There's been every effort at maintaining stability, especially in light of the $9+ spike a few weeks ago which was cut down before it became a bubble. Followed by a stable basing range and resumed gradual ascent offering no easy entry points, it looks exactly the opposite of a bear.

What posts led you to believe Pirate is bearish? Everything I've seen indicated that he thinks Bitcoin has great potential, with some risks that could cause it to fail. Why would anyone hold or invest in bitcoins if they expected them to decline, let alone accumulate large quantities and build several services based on the system? I could see the case for a pump & dump, but where's the pump - are we witnessing a slow, multi-year pump that'll dump when everyone is using Bitcoin?
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
Hypothetically, what do you think would've happened if silver were instated as a currency at that point?
The Hunt brothers would have become rich, owning 1/3 of the currency's wealth.  That would be a retarded move by any government.

Exactly. No government would sign on to that, but with Bitcoin they may not have a choice.

Even after over 32 years the price of silver has not reached the 1979 - 1980 peak of 49.45 USD an ounce. As a currency initially hyper inflation. The key difference with Pirate is that Pirate is a bear and the Hunts were bulls. So if Pirate were to try the same thing as the Hunts did in 1979 - 1980 but as a bear, the initial impact on Bitcoin would be hyper deflation.

By hyper inflation, do you mean the relative value of silver would rise? How do you know Pirate is a bear?

No. Silver is the currency in this example. In hyperinflation the relative value of the currency will fall drastically. That is what happened with sliver in 1980. As to why Pirate is a bear, my conclusion here is based mostly on Pirate's own threads and comments and some of the comments from his supporters. I then compare this with the market data and have reached my conclusions from the relationship between the pro Pirate comments and the market data.

Yay!  Hearsay and assumptions!

Let's bet the farm!
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
Hypothetically, what do you think would've happened if silver were instated as a currency at that point?
The Hunt brothers would have become rich, owning 1/3 of the currency's wealth.  That would be a retarded move by any government.

Exactly. No government would sign on to that, but with Bitcoin they may not have a choice.

Even after over 32 years the price of silver has not reached the 1979 - 1980 peak of 49.45 USD an ounce. As a currency initially hyper inflation. The key difference with Pirate is that Pirate is a bear and the Hunts were bulls. So if Pirate were to try the same thing as the Hunts did in 1979 - 1980 but as a bear, the initial impact on Bitcoin would be hyper deflation.

By hyper inflation, do you mean the relative value of silver would rise? How do you know Pirate is a bear?

No. Silver is the currency in this example. In hyperinflation the relative value of the currency will fall drastically. That is what happened with sliver in 1980. As to why Pirate is a bear, my conclusion here is based mostly on Pirate's own threads and comments and some of the comments from his supporters. I then compare this with the market data and have reached my conclusions from the relationship between the pro Pirate comments and the market data.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
The idea that Pirate is selling coins to people wishing to acquire them without reflecting the market is certainly feasible.
People always say this and I'm not too sure where they're coming from.
Sure it works when the bitcoin price is declining rapidly, as pirate can hoard USD and pay back extra BTC.
But with prices going in the other direction however, then what?

Say market price is $8.50, and someone decides to be a bit charitable and buy 100000BTC from pirate for $9.

Okay, so now he's got $900000, and has given away 100000BTC from his "investors".
He still needs to buy back that currency, which is going to shift the price upwards, so he'll struggle to make any significant amount of coin at all, as pirate making 100000BTC worth of buy orders is going to shift the price upward just as much.

How does the "buying large quantities of something without moving the market at all" thing work  Huh

Because he can do off market trades from his personal connections on bitcoin-otc.
This is the problem though - bitcoin trading via OTC or the exchanges is a zero-sum game, somebody's losing.
Let's be optimistic and assume that he manages to buy back through OTC at 5% below market price - this is crazy, because nobody on there will sell you BTC that cheaply if you're buying bulk, but I digress.

Using this fanciful 5% guaranteed profit, you'd need to make something like 550,000BTC in transactions over OTC every single week in order to just barely cover interest payments. So yeah, Pirate would need to be doing trades equal to some multiple of the entire MtGox volume  Roll Eyes

In your example, price is 8.5.  He got paid 9.  Someone wants to sell a shit ton of bitcoins at current price.  Pirate makes $0.5/bitcoin.

What's the problem?

It's not a zero sum game if you aren't just trading.  Some people actually want to trade something they have for something they don't have.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
The idea that Pirate is selling coins to people wishing to acquire them without reflecting the market is certainly feasible.
People always say this and I'm not too sure where they're coming from.
Sure it works when the bitcoin price is declining rapidly, as pirate can hoard USD and pay back extra BTC.
But with prices going in the other direction however, then what?

Say market price is $8.50, and someone decides to be a bit charitable and buy 100000BTC from pirate for $9.

Okay, so now he's got $900000, and has given away 100000BTC from his "investors".
He still needs to buy back that currency, which is going to shift the price upwards, so he'll struggle to make any significant amount of coin at all, as pirate making 100000BTC worth of buy orders is going to shift the price upward just as much.

How does the "buying large quantities of something without moving the market at all" thing work  Huh

Because he can do off market trades from his personal connections on bitcoin-otc.
This is the problem though - bitcoin trading via OTC or the exchanges is a zero-sum game, somebody's losing.
Let's be optimistic and assume that he manages to buy back through OTC at 5% below market price - this is crazy, because nobody on there will sell you BTC that cheaply if you're buying bulk, but I digress.

Using this fanciful 5% guaranteed profit, you'd need to make something like 550,000BTC in transactions over OTC every single week in order to just barely cover interest payments. So yeah, Pirate would need to be doing trades equal to some multiple of the entire MtGox volume  Roll Eyes
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
The idea that Pirate is selling coins to people wishing to acquire them without reflecting the market is certainly feasible.
People always say this and I'm not too sure where they're coming from.
Sure it works when the bitcoin price is declining rapidly, as pirate can hoard USD and pay back extra BTC.
But with prices going in the other direction however, then what?

Say market price is $8.50, and someone decides to be a bit charitable and buy 100000BTC from pirate for $9.

Okay, so now he's got $900000, and has given away 100000BTC from his "investors".
He still needs to buy back that currency, which is going to shift the price upwards, so he'll struggle to make any significant amount of coin at all, as pirate making 100000BTC worth of buy orders is going to shift the price upward just as much.

How does the "buying large quantities of something without moving the market at all" thing work  Huh

Because he can do off market trades from his personal connections on bitcoin-otc.  There are big fish on both sides, and neither side wants to deal with slippage.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
The idea that Pirate is selling coins to people wishing to acquire them without reflecting the market is certainly feasible.
People always say this and I'm not too sure where they're coming from.
Sure it works when the bitcoin price is declining rapidly, as pirate can hoard USD and pay back extra BTC.
But with prices going in the other direction however, then what?

Say market price is $8.50, and someone decides to be a bit charitable and buy 100000BTC from pirate for $9.

Okay, so now he's got $900000, and has given away 100000BTC from his "investors".
He still needs to buy back that currency, which is going to shift the price upwards, so he'll struggle to make any significant amount of coin at all, as pirate making 100000BTC worth of buy orders is going to shift the price upward just as much.

How does the "buying large quantities of something without moving the market at all" thing work  Huh
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
How do you know Pirate is a bear?

This is based on the far-fetched idea that he's intending to pay back all his BTC-denominated debts. Didn't he lower his rates? If he's paying 3% weekly (I don't know the exact current rate and I don't care) that comes to 465% annual interest when compounded. No one in their right mind would commit to pay that kind of interest unless they were pretty damn certain the currency is going to lose at least 80% of its value every year (i.e. 400% yearly inflation, which would make the annual real interest rate 13%, which is in the consumer credit card or insolvent nation state range).

Unless he fears the USD debt default scenario (guys with guns kicking him out of his house) more than the BTC default scenario (gnashing of teeth on a forum).  Then it makes more sense to have bitcoin denominated debt than USD debt, especially if his business requires holding large amounts of bitcoin and he can't discount the possibility of a large drop in bitcoin prices.
hero member
Activity: 501
Merit: 500
How do you know Pirate is a bear?

This is based on the far-fetched idea that he's intending to pay back all his BTC-denominated debts. Didn't he lower his rates? If he's paying 3% weekly (I don't know the exact current rate and I don't care) that comes to 465% annual interest when compounded. No one in their right mind would commit to pay that kind of interest unless they were pretty damn certain the currency is going to lose at least 80% of its value every year (i.e. 400% yearly inflation, which would make the annual real interest rate 13%, which is in the consumer credit card or insolvent nation state range).
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
How do you know Pirate is a bear?

Because he puts too much faith in the random musings of various forum members Roll Eyes.
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1005
Hypothetically, what do you think would've happened if silver were instated as a currency at that point?
The Hunt brothers would have become rich, owning 1/3 of the currency's wealth.  That would be a retarded move by any government.

Exactly. No government would sign on to that, but with Bitcoin they may not have a choice.

Even after over 32 years the price of silver has not reached the 1979 - 1980 peak of 49.45 USD an ounce. As a currency initially hyper inflation. The key difference with Pirate is that Pirate is a bear and the Hunts were bulls. So if Pirate were to try the same thing as the Hunts did in 1979 - 1980 but as a bear, the initial impact on Bitcoin would be hyper deflation.

By hyper inflation, do you mean the relative value of silver would rise? How do you know Pirate is a bear?
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
If you were an early oil baron what would you pay to corner the oil market by buying saudi arabia ? 7% seems cheap  Smiley
It almost always costs more to corner the market than you can possibly make after having cornered it.
seriously

Hypothetically, what do you think would've happened if silver were instated as a currency at that point?

Even after over 32 years the price of silver has not reached the 1979 - 1980 peak of 49.45 USD an ounce. As a currency initially hyper inflation. The key difference with Pirate is that Pirate is a bear and the Hunts were bulls. So if Pirate were to try the same thing as the Hunts did in 1979 - 1980 but as a bear, the initial impact on Bitcoin would be hyper deflation.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
If you were an early oil baron what would you pay to corner the oil market by buying saudi arabia ? 7% seems cheap  Smiley
It almost always costs more to corner the market than you can possibly make after having cornered it.
seriously

Hypothetically, what do you think would've happened if silver were instated as a currency at that point?

The Hunt brothers would have become rich, owning 1/3 of the currency's wealth.  That would be a retarded move by any government.
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1005
If you were an early oil baron what would you pay to corner the oil market by buying saudi arabia ? 7% seems cheap  Smiley
It almost always costs more to corner the market than you can possibly make after having cornered it.
seriously

Hypothetically, what do you think would've happened if silver were instated as a currency at that point?
donator
Activity: 980
Merit: 1004
felonious vagrancy, personified
If you were an early oil baron what would you pay to corner the oil market by buying saudi arabia ? 7% seems cheap  Smiley
It almost always costs more to corner the market than you can possibly make after having cornered it.


seriously
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