I certainly hope not! My BFL stuff isn't here yet... 
I may have to go pre-order a Monarch!
Topic: I Predict Difficulty Will Be Over 100 Million by Summer 2013 (Read 12409 times)
I certainly hope not! My BFL stuff isn't here yet... I may have to go pre-order a Monarch!
I just saw 95.2 million.
Difficulty just hit 65.8M about 3 minutes ago!! 
well, you really weren't too wrong.
but i guess you were also thinking that BFL and the others would ship on time, that would have made the difficulty rise!
but i guess you were also thinking that BFL and the others would ship on time, that would have made the difficulty rise!
This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives 
not too far. we still have a month to the end of the summer
Wow, how wrong you were.
The discussion should be very simple since this is what the OP said in his first post:
Summer has arrived and we're at 21.3M difficulty. OP was wrong, end of discussion.
This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives
Summer has arrived and we're at 21.3M difficulty. OP was wrong, end of discussion.
So read his statement like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million during the course of summer 2013"
or like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million not later than summer 2013".
To me that seems like summer counts. /shrug
or like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million not later than summer 2013".
To me that seems like summer counts. /shrug
So if I say "I'll be at work by 8am", I really mean "between 8am and 8:59:59am"?
8am is a specific point in time. 8:01am is different than 8am. If you said you will be back at work by mid-afternoon, does that mean precisely 3pm? Or does it mean a range of time around 3pm?
I see what you're saying.
So if I switch it up to " I'll have the project done by Friday ", what does that mean to you? To me (and my employers are least), it means that by Friday morning when I arrive everything is done so we can go over it ..not 11:59pm that Friday night.
Anyway, I don't even know why we're arguing this haha ..difficulty isn't going to get past 100m by the end of September.
Good example of using a day of the week to specify a range of time. Substituting in the two most relevant definitions of "by" we get:
"I'll have the project done not later than Friday."
"I'll have the project done during the course of Friday."
What does "not later than Friday mean"? To me, later than Friday means sometime that is not Friday, which would be Saturday.
Also you could say "I'll have the project done not later than 2-5pm". You are specifying a window of time during which the project will complete.
It is just an interesting discussion to me because I have seen so many bets hinge on imprecise wording.
It would be unlikely that difficulty will hit 100M by Sept 21st, but kind of cool that the OP called it back in Sept 2012.
Let's all just agree that K9 is wrong. lol
I do think it could hit 70M easily by SEP because if it keeps going up 25% every 2 weeks then do the math...
7/15 - ~25
8/1 - 31
8/15 - 47
8/30 - 70
BFL is starting to gear-up the faster units shipping and another Avalon batch coming, and the Block Eruptors...
Another pet peeve: If it's early in the week, I hate it when people say "next Friday" when they actually mean "this Firday"
or even "Friday". Ugh.
I do think it could hit 70M easily by SEP because if it keeps going up 25% every 2 weeks then do the math...
7/15 - ~25
8/1 - 31
8/15 - 47
8/30 - 70
BFL is starting to gear-up the faster units shipping and another Avalon batch coming, and the Block Eruptors...
Another pet peeve: If it's early in the week, I hate it when people say "next Friday" when they actually mean "this Firday"
or even "Friday". Ugh.
It's not going up 25% every 2 weeks, especially not now the price of BTC is going down. Last difficulty increase was only 10%, and the next jump is estimated to be about the same or a bit lower even. Now there will be bigger jumps in the near future as larger batches of ASICs arrive but a constant increase of 25% is not realistic. 35M difficulty by September would be my estimate, but it could be lower if the price of BTC continues to drop.
Let's all just agree that K9 is wrong. lol
I do think it could hit 70M easily by SEP because if it keeps going up 25% every 2 weeks then do the math...
7/15 - ~25
8/1 - 31
8/15 - 47
8/30 - 70
BFL is starting to gear-up the faster units shipping and another Avalon batch coming, and the Block Eruptors...
Another pet peeve: If it's early in the week, I hate it when people say "next Friday" when they actually mean "this Firday"
or even "Friday". Ugh.
I do think it could hit 70M easily by SEP because if it keeps going up 25% every 2 weeks then do the math...
7/15 - ~25
8/1 - 31
8/15 - 47
8/30 - 70
BFL is starting to gear-up the faster units shipping and another Avalon batch coming, and the Block Eruptors...
Another pet peeve: If it's early in the week, I hate it when people say "next Friday" when they actually mean "this Firday"
or even "Friday". Ugh.
So read his statement like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million during the course of summer 2013"
or like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million not later than summer 2013".
To me that seems like summer counts. /shrug
or like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million not later than summer 2013".
To me that seems like summer counts. /shrug
So if I say "I'll be at work by 8am", I really mean "between 8am and 8:59:59am"?
8am is a specific point in time. 8:01am is different than 8am. If you said you will be back at work by mid-afternoon, does that mean precisely 3pm? Or does it mean a range of time around 3pm?
I see what you're saying.
So if I switch it up to " I'll have the project done by Friday ", what does that mean to you? To me (and my employers are least), it means that by Friday morning when I arrive everything is done so we can go over it ..not 11:59pm that Friday night.
Anyway, I don't even know why we're arguing this haha ..difficulty isn't going to get past 100m by the end of September.
This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives
summer arrives. Your hit was 5 times to big
Well, he still has two more months. The term Summer 2013 is not a point in time but a range in time, from June 21st to September 21st.
He could still make it, but it is gonna be rough.
Great thread bump though
He said when "Summer arrives" i.e. June 21st-22nd. So prediction was def off.
He said to bump the thread when summer arrives. His prediction was "I Predict Difficulty Will Be Over 100 Million by Summer 2013".
That actually means before the beginning of Summer, or to put it another way, by the end of Spring.
You only read the first half of the thread, didn't you.
This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives
summer arrives. Your hit was 5 times to big
Well, he still has two more months. The term Summer 2013 is not a point in time but a range in time, from June 21st to September 21st.
He could still make it, but it is gonna be rough.
Great thread bump though
He said when "Summer arrives" i.e. June 21st-22nd. So prediction was def off.
He said to bump the thread when summer arrives. His prediction was "I Predict Difficulty Will Be Over 100 Million by Summer 2013".
That actually means before the beginning of Summer, or to put it another way, by the end of Spring.
So read his statement like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million during the course of summer 2013"
or like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million not later than summer 2013".
To me that seems like summer counts. /shrug
or like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million not later than summer 2013".
To me that seems like summer counts. /shrug
So if I say "I'll be at work by 8am", I really mean "between 8am and 8:59:59am"?
8am is a specific point in time. 8:01am is different than 8am. If you said you will be back at work by mid-afternoon, does that mean precisely 3pm? Or does it mean a range of time around 3pm?
So read his statement like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million during the course of summer 2013"
or like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million not later than summer 2013".
To me that seems like summer counts. /shrug
or like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million not later than summer 2013".
To me that seems like summer counts. /shrug
So if I say "I'll be at work by 8am", I really mean "between 8am and 8:59:59am"?
In other words to see if he was correct. Someone help me out here... lol
I think we are hung up on the legal definition vs the colloquial definition.
'by" can mean one of the following:
1: in proximity to : near
2a : through or through the medium of : via
2b : in the direction of : toward
2c : into the vicinity of and beyond : past
3a : during the course of
3b : not later than
4a : through the agency or instrumentality of
4b : born or begot of
4c : sired or borne by
5: with the witness or sanction of
6a : in conformity with
6b : according to
7a : on behalf of
7b : with respect to
8a : in or to the amount or extent of
8b chiefly Scottish : in comparison with : beside
I think this usage would be definition 3b or possibly 3a.
So read his statement like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million during the course of summer 2013"
or like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million not later than summer 2013".
To me that seems like summer counts. /shrug
In other words to see if he was correct. Someone help me out here... lol
This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives
summer arrives. Your hit was 5 times to big
Well, he still has two more months. The term Summer 2013 is not a point in time but a range in time, from June 21st to September 21st.
He could still make it, but it is gonna be rough.
Great thread bump though
He said when "Summer arrives" i.e. June 21st-22nd. So prediction was def off.
He said to bump the thread when summer arrives. His prediction was "I Predict Difficulty Will Be Over 100 Million by Summer 2013".
This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives
summer arrives. Your hit was 5 times to big
Well, he still has two more months. The term Summer 2013 is not a point in time but a range in time, from June 21st to September 21st.
He could still make it, but it is gonna be rough.
Great thread bump though
He said when "Summer arrives" i.e. June 21st-22nd. So prediction was def off.
But OBSI has run with the money of his investors
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