I Predict Difficulty Will Be Over 100 Million by Summer 2013 - page 5.

scrybe

sr. member

Activity: 350

Merit: 250

I've got my eye on 58 million by 7/5/13, so your 100M would be less than twice as much. (edit: I kept reading double as doable)

I doubt we will see more than 70M, but 100M is almost a certainty by the end of 2013.

Current Prognostication from my optimistic model:
Block# Date & Time Block Time Block Value TimeToFind 2016 time Global Payout $ Global Hashrate Difficulty USD/BTC Rate Earnings per GH/day
245952 7/5/13 6:10 9.642791286 25 1166392.034 13.4999078 49000 $776,133.19 414641 57,924,637.73 $15.84 0.012155102

I do think we are going to see a bit of a bubble towards the end of the year, and a slump before growth returns in the spring or early summer.
Some implications of this:

More GPU's than expected are going to be forced from the market if the hasing rate is up in the 30 million range while BTC drops to the $4-8 range somewhere
Some FPGA's may even get turned off for a while.
Those expecting to "re-up" every 3-4 weeks as they make mining profits will see their timetables go to hell, or switch to saving

(oh, that is my Median Risk sheet BTW, I do have a model that hits 200M by E0Y 2013, but it is based on assumptions like 100% of BFL pre-orders numbers shipping, which are a bit unreasonable.

Well, that is my guess.
Someone witness this baby and we will see if it is ugly in 9 months.

ercolinux

legendary

Activity: 938

Merit: 1000

Maybe not 100.000.000 but neither only 17.000.000 as Korban say.
I extimate a 3-40.000.000 difficulty in 8-10 months: there are ASIC for 1THash/sec in delivery for the Q1 of 2013, but is not impossible to expect some 2 or 3THash/sec rig in near future.
The Korban prevision is based on the assumption that no one buy more ASIC after the first batch (or near so), but I think that for every ASIC preorderd at least another one can be sold in the next 4-6 months, doubing the difficulty.

Korbman

legendary

Activity: 1064

Merit: 1001

Quote from: Obsi on September 30, 2012, 12:51:08 AM

This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives Grin

So..you're saying a 33x increase by summer? That would require a network hashrate of 726TH/s.

Let's take BFL's current preorder rate of 31TH/s...let's say double that for people that haven't put in their orders on the forum. So now 62TH/s.
Meh, let's double it again and assume that the other ASIC companies out there have just as many preorders combined to make a similar rate. Now we're up to 124TH/s.

This 124TH/s is going to be our base value for Q1 2013...you're predicting that the number of total orders (and overall devices in the wild) would increase 5.85 times within the next 6 months of Q1. The only way that would happen is if the following are met:
1) ASIC devices not only meet their predicted specs, but some exceed them
2) ASIC devices become extremely cheap
3) USD/BTC values skyrocket to new highs and stabilize up there

Only if all three of those conditions are met do I think the difficulty would reach that high...mainly since everyone and their grandma who even heard about bitcoin in passing would be trying to make some easy money with cheap ASIC devices.

Obsi

newbie

Activity: 30

Merit: 0

This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives Grin

Topic: I Predict Difficulty Will Be Over 100 Million by Summer 2013 - page 5. (Read 12414 times)