I Predict Difficulty Will Be Over 100 Million by Summer 2013 - page 3.

smoothie

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: crazyates on December 28, 2012, 07:13:47 PM

Quote from: Desolator on December 28, 2012, 04:20:49 PM

I've been away for a bit (and have no pre-orders, lol) so when exactly is the new alleged release date for BFL products? I'll laugh if they get beat by another company like the one making Avalons. I figured from the beginning they were lying about the date just to get the most pre-orders since it's such a time sensitive thing.

They announced a 30-day delay around the middle of December. ATM, they should get their chips around Jan 15th.

Just like they SHOULD have shipped in October, November, and December...lol

crazyates

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Quote from: Desolator on December 28, 2012, 04:20:49 PM

I've been away for a bit (and have no pre-orders, lol) so when exactly is the new alleged release date for BFL products? I'll laugh if they get beat by another company like the one making Avalons. I figured from the beginning they were lying about the date just to get the most pre-orders since it's such a time sensitive thing.

They announced a 30-day delay around the middle of December. ATM, they should get their chips around Jan 15th.

rini17

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GO http://bitcointa.lk !!! My new nick: jurov

Quote from: 420 on December 25, 2012, 06:55:46 PM

where's the official bet?

The only offer so far available for X.IDIFF.JUN future on MPEx indicates that seller expects difficulty to end up well below 77 million. Whoever really believes it's going to be over 100 million, go there and buy it. If you disagree, also go there and sell Wink

Desolator

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That's not the end of November. That's not the end of November at all, rofl.

420

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Quote from: Desolator on December 28, 2012, 04:20:49 PM

I've been away for a bit (and have no pre-orders, lol) so when exactly is the new alleged release date for BFL products? I'll laugh if they get beat by another company like the one making Avalons. I figured from the beginning they were lying about the date just to get the most pre-orders since it's such a time sensitive thing.

exactly 4-6 weeks

[/troll]

Desolator

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I've been away for a bit (and have no pre-orders, lol) so when exactly is the new alleged release date for BFL products? I'll laugh if they get beat by another company like the one making Avalons. I figured from the beginning they were lying about the date just to get the most pre-orders since it's such a time sensitive thing.

nibor

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Quote from: Obsi on September 29, 2012, 11:51:08 PM

This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives Grin

I agree based on BFL saying that their 1st batch of asics is 100k chips:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bfl-are-expecting-100000-chips-128414

YipYip

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Australian culture will have an Asustralian bet on a fly walking or flying up a wall

So ..instead of blah blah blah this that woulda coulda shoulda

Lets put money on it .. Cheesy

crazyates

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Quote from: YipYip on December 25, 2012, 10:44:19 PM

I am Australian so will bet on anything

I don't really see the connection? Huh

YipYip

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Quote from: 420 on December 25, 2012, 06:55:46 PM

where's the official bet?

I am Australian so will bet on anything

Give me an exact date and I will put 5 BTC that says No to 100 million Cheesy

420

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where's the official bet?

hahahafr

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Quote from: Desolator on October 04, 2012, 12:55:55 PM

my extremely elaborate estimate puts it at 20.344x and it was quite conservative so your 33x is probably about right.

Yes, somewhere between 20x and 33x is the real value.

Desolator

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my extremely elaborate estimate puts it at 20.344x and it was quite conservative so your 33x is probably about right.

jjiimm_64

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Quote from: Sitarow on October 02, 2012, 09:04:24 PM

Quote from: Korbman on October 02, 2012, 09:36:16 AM

Though I'm not sure I can picture reaching your "end of November" max numbers, I'm 100% with you on the minimums.

A single re-target never changes the target by more than a factor of 4 either way to prevent large changes in difficulty.

The question now is how many days it will take before the next difficulty change.

The code that enforces this is located here.

https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/d62a1947be5350ed60066ccacc7aba43bbdf48fb/src/main.cpp#L857

good call:

if (nActualTimespan < nTargetTimespan/4)
nActualTimespan = nTargetTimespan/4;
if (nActualTimespan > nTargetTimespan*4)
nActualTimespan = nTargetTimespan*4;

Sitarow

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Quote from: Korbman on October 02, 2012, 09:36:16 AM

Though I'm not sure I can picture reaching your "end of November" max numbers, I'm 100% with you on the minimums.

A single re-target never changes the target by more than a factor of 4 either way to prevent large changes in difficulty.

The question now is how many days it will take before the next difficulty change.

The code that enforces this is located here.

https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/d62a1947be5350ed60066ccacc7aba43bbdf48fb/src/main.cpp#L857

Korbman

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YokoToriyama

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thats a scary number 100 Million LOL ... i doubt it
depending on how many people order mini rig's and such
and also if new hardware comings out again but still
look for longs its taking for stuff to come out now...

jjiimm_64

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Korbman

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Quote from: DoomDumas on October 01, 2012, 12:09:31 PM

1) ASIC devices not only meet their predicted specs, but some exceed them
2) ASIC devices become extremely cheap
3) USD/BTC values skyrocket to new highs and stabilize up there

IMHO : ASIC already seems to be exceeding spec.. and are cheap, maybe become extremely cheap this winter..

Haha I know, right. The day I posted that was the day BFL had me cross off #1 on that list with their updated specs Grin

DoomDumas

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Bitcoin

1) ASIC devices not only meet their predicted specs, but some exceed them
2) ASIC devices become extremely cheap
3) USD/BTC values skyrocket to new highs and stabilize up there

IMHO : ASIC already seems to be exceeding spec.. and are cheap, maybe become extremely cheap this winter..

I've bet on a 100 U$ / BTC before 2014 ! Cheesy

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