Another thing that makes no sense, is the inability to put orders in at prices that already exist in the book. BUM3 has live buy orders from 39-53. Yet the allowable price range for new orders is 52 - 64. So if I try to place a buy at 47, I get rejected! Even though there are already bids at 47. wtf!
Its one thing to have price limits (this can be debated separately). But just because there are price limits, shouldn't stop you from placing bids below those limits. Especially since there are many "Special" settlements that happen which change the limits.
Topic: ICBIT Derivatives Market (USD/BTC futures trading) - LIVE - page 19. (Read 97699 times)
BTCUSD-3.13 (BUH3) was just settled at $47.0764 (24h weighted avg as reported by MtGox website at the moment of settlement).
You seem to be a UTC exchange given what is shown on the first row of your website. Your settlement price determination is not clearly specified in the contract. You seem to have settled around 4 hrs before the end of the UTC trading day - how is that possible?What time zone are you using for the settlement trading day? How can your settlement price be verified? I think you need more transparency in both the contract and the determination process itself so 3rd parties cannot dispute your settlement price.
BTCUSD-3.13 (BUH3) was just settled at $47.0764 (24h weighted avg as reported by MtGox website at the moment of settlement).
You seem to be a UTC exchange given what is shown on the first row of your website. Your settlement price determination is not clearly specified in the contract. You seem to have settled around 4 hrs before the end of the UTC trading day - how is that possible?What time zone are you using for the settlement trading day? How can your settlement price be verified? I think you need more transparency in both the contract and the determination process itself so 3rd parties cannot dispute your settlement price.
BTCUSD-3.13 (BUH3) was just settled at $47.0764 (24h weighted avg as reported by MtGox website at the moment of settlement).
Total volume for this contract is $754550.
You will get access to all trades of this and other contracts using the unified interface I am going to add soon. In the meanwhile, 1h candles chart data is available from here: http://icbit.se/data/sec/BUH3/1h.json
Thanks to everyone involved and Happy trading! Next nearest contract is BTCUSD-4.13 (BUJ3).
Total volume for this contract is $754550.
You will get access to all trades of this and other contracts using the unified interface I am going to add soon. In the meanwhile, 1h candles chart data is available from here: http://icbit.se/data/sec/BUH3/1h.json
Thanks to everyone involved and Happy trading! Next nearest contract is BTCUSD-4.13 (BUJ3).
Hi Fireball,
Is there anyway to see the time-and-sales for BUM3? http://daytrading.about.com/od/stou/g/TimeAndSales.htm
Specifically I see that there were some trades at 58.50 in last couple of hours. However it seems that the 60.06 bid has been sitting on the book since before the 58.50 prints.
In general, more transparency would help. The 1 minute charts are not enough.. were can we see all trades?
ty
Is there anyway to see the time-and-sales for BUM3? http://daytrading.about.com/od/stou/g/TimeAndSales.htm
Specifically I see that there were some trades at 58.50 in last couple of hours. However it seems that the 60.06 bid has been sitting on the book since before the 58.50 prints.
In general, more transparency would help. The 1 minute charts are not enough.. were can we see all trades?
ty
The field for Quantity is assuming the input is Octal numbers when there is a leading 0. e.g., if I enter quantity 011 that gets understood as 9. If I enter 09 that gets an "invalid quantity" (because in octal, anything above 7 doesn't exist.)
That's not a bug, that's a feature! (of your browser's javascript engine)
But ok, (if you refresh the page), the only possible base for the input values becomes decimal.
Shit. Did I just here little bobby tables calling?
The field for Quantity is assuming the input is Octal numbers when there is a leading 0. e.g., if I enter quantity 011 that gets understood as 9. If I enter 09 that gets an "invalid quantity" (because in octal, anything above 7 doesn't exist.)
Oh wow! That's so lame. Because people input in octal, just like programmers! Makes one wonder what kind of validation etc. is going on, or not. 
The field for Quantity is assuming the input is Octal numbers when there is a leading 0. e.g., if I enter quantity 011 that gets understood as 9. If I enter 09 that gets an "invalid quantity" (because in octal, anything above 7 doesn't exist.)
Short Case:
1. Merchant has 100 BTCs coming in next month and wants to lock in the current price, to eliminate the risk of a drop in price.
The formula for getting short exactly 100 BTCs is 10*Price = size. So if price is 20 size is 200, if Price is 4 size is 40.
1. Merchant has 100 BTCs coming in next month and wants to lock in the current price, to eliminate the risk of a drop in price.
The formula for getting short exactly 100 BTCs is 10*Price = size. So if price is 20 size is 200, if Price is 4 size is 40.
Nope. Suppose I'm a merchant. I'm pain in BTC, but I need to pay supplier in USD. So I need to be size to be fixed in USD, obviously.
Let's consider a concrete example: 1 BTC is 10 USD (current futures price). I'm being paid 11 BTC and I need to pay $100 USD to supplier.
So I sell $100 USD worth of futures.
I'm too lazy to do the math, but if futures work correctly my profit should be 1 BTC no matter what. Alternatively I can make my profit fixed in USD ($10 USD that is.)
1. if it was a true futures contract you are 100% correct. but there are some outlier situations where you can get hurt. anyways dont tell anyone about this..
2. of couse the future prices should be much higher than spot!
2. of couse the future prices should be much higher than spot!
1. I tasting this instrument, and can see what formula works in large range prices (symmetric USD var. margin for Δf (Δ price)). All the difficulties in calculating the size of the position in futures contracts for delta neutral position in bitcoins.
2. IMHO bitcoin is locally bubble, is overbought, so price can be dramatically and fast dropped. In any case, too extreme deviation in futures price, it is not profitable for buyers I think.
touche 
only talking BTCUSD futures. anyways, 2 monkeys throwing darts at the order book, 1 of them will have positive PnL...
I personally know a third monkey who got margincalled but nevertheless got >100BTC profit from BTCUSD futures there are no BTC futures contracts traded on their exchange!. Rather, they offer toxic exotic derivative time-bombs that are erratic, unpredictable and impossible for any of us mere mortals comprehend.
Trading on iCBIT for seven months without any problem. Got some good profit. 
What am I doing wrong? 
im only talking BTCUSD futures. anyways, 2 monkeys throwing darts at the order book, 1 of them will have positive PnL...
with no risky (except force major situations).
Please correct me, if I wrong.
Please correct me, if I wrong.
if you woke up tomorrow morning and icbit.se gave a browser timeout, and that was the end of it, where would you even start to look?
It is not an exotic derivative. It is just a derivative of the USD traded in BTC, where the price for convenience is labeled in USD/BTC instead of BTC/USD. So it is not terribly suitable for protecting an investment in BTC, it is much better for protecting an investment in USD.
Perhaps the solution would be to list the price in BTC/USD, and with the price in USD/BTC in parenthesis. I suspect it would be a bit confusing, however.
Perhaps the solution would be to list the price in BTC/USD, and with the price in USD/BTC in parenthesis. I suspect it would be a bit confusing, however.
you are correct, it is much closer to a USD future than a BTC future.. but a USD future would be quoted in BTCUSD not in USDBTC. So you see the marketing and description of this as a hedge for BTC is just wrong https://icbit.se/futures. For a true USD contract there should be a contract size... l like $500 USD... 10 * BTCUSD is what causing the funky stuff... It kinda reminds me of the 3 time leeraged ETFs.. where both the long and the short version, are down 90% for the year .. (off topic)
Who presents this awesome cotango on BUM3? Now it price above $10 vs MtGox average, and sometimes above $20 - true free cheese for arbitrager, or I something dont understand )
Free profit formula:
Incoming money = $480.
Buying 10 bitcoins for $48 (spot-price), selling short 10 bitcoins full covered ( 61 BUM3 contracts, right? ).
June expiration cases:
In every case, I have profit $130 or ~27% with no risky (except force major situations).
Please correct me, if I wrong.
Free profit formula:
Incoming money = $480.
Buying 10 bitcoins for $48 (spot-price), selling short 10 bitcoins full covered ( 61 BUM3 contracts, right? ).
June expiration cases:
| BTC price | | Profit in USD | by futures | Profit in BTC (real) | | rest BTC | | rest USD | |
| $20 | 410 | 20.5 | 30.5 | 610 |
| $48 | 130 | 2.7 | 12.7 | 610 |
| $100 | -390 | -3.9 | 6.1 | 610 |
| $200 | -1390 | -6.95 | 3.05 | 610 |
| $1000 | -9390 | -9.39 | 0.61 | 610 |
In every case, I have profit $130 or ~27% with no risky (except force major situations).
Please correct me, if I wrong.
shhhh... you are so wrong!
this is why i spent 12 hours analyzing things... if it was a true futures contract you are 100% correct. but there are some outlier situations where you can get hurt. anyways dont tell anyone about this.. of couse the future prices should be much higher than spot!
Who presents this awesome cotango on BUM3? Now it price above $10 vs MtGox average, and sometimes above $20 - true free cheese for arbitrager, or I something dont understand )
Free profit formula:
Incoming money = $480.
Buying 10 bitcoins for $48 (spot-price), selling short 10 bitcoins full covered ( 61 BUM3 contracts, right? ).
June expiration cases:
In every case, I have profit $130 or ~27% with no risky (except force major situations).
Please correct me, if I wrong.
Free profit formula:
Incoming money = $480.
Buying 10 bitcoins for $48 (spot-price), selling short 10 bitcoins full covered ( 61 BUM3 contracts, right? ).
June expiration cases:
| BTC price | | Profit in USD | by futures | Profit in BTC (real) | | rest BTC | | rest USD | |
| $20 | 410 | 20.5 | 30.5 | 610 |
| $48 | 130 | 2.7 | 12.7 | 610 |
| $100 | -390 | -3.9 | 6.1 | 610 |
| $200 | -1390 | -6.95 | 3.05 | 610 |
| $1000 | -9390 | -9.39 | 0.61 | 610 |
In every case, I have profit $130 or ~27% with no risky (except force major situations).
Please correct me, if I wrong.
It is not an exotic derivative. It is just a derivative of the USD traded in BTC, where the price for convenience is labeled in USD/BTC instead of BTC/USD. So it is not terribly suitable for protecting an investment in BTC, it is much better for protecting an investment in USD.
Perhaps the solution would be to list the price in BTC/USD, and with the price in USD/BTC in parenthesis. I suspect it would be a bit confusing, however.
Perhaps the solution would be to list the price in BTC/USD, and with the price in USD/BTC in parenthesis. I suspect it would be a bit confusing, however.
Good discussion! (it reappears once in a while though )
Really, please propose alternative futures, I will review and if all is well, we can just launch them.
The only real proposal I got so far is to launch additional linear USD/BTC, quoted in USD per BTC and with margin transferred in USD. But this requires dealing with USD in addition to BTC, and my desire was to help BTC economy grow, not add yet another dependency on US Dollar.
But anyway it's up to traders. Every exchange exists to service traders.
)Really, please propose alternative futures, I will review and if all is well, we can just launch them.
The only real proposal I got so far is to launch additional linear USD/BTC, quoted in USD per BTC and with margin transferred in USD. But this requires dealing with USD in addition to BTC, and my desire was to help BTC economy grow, not add yet another dependency on US Dollar.
But anyway it's up to traders. Every exchange exists to service traders.
i do have some specs for a real BTC futures contract. will get back 2 u in a day or 2. cheers
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