Topic: If Greece defaults - page 16. (Read 45224 times)

The current bank run in Greece is effectively financed via abuse of the emergency liquidity program of the ECB, which is scandalous but explains why the Greek government is delaying negotiations.

I don't think that a bank closure would not matter. I think even if all savings have been withdrawn, it would still have serious economic consequences esp. for internationally operating companies in Greece. If there are capital controls, companies will have a hard time to do business.

ya.ya.yo!

Doesn't matter. Almost everyone have withdrawn their savings (in the form of €500 notes) from the Greek banks (and very few Greeks are having any savings at all). Once bitten, twice shy. People have learnt the lesson from the Cyprus haircut. They are never going to trust the bankers with their hard earned money again.

http://www.businessinsider.com/greeks-withdrawing-cash-from-banks-as-eurozone-exit-looms-2015-6

then like all in life they will find out they could have converted to BTC BEFORE monday...thus it is with humans the world over (DOH!)


20/20 hindsight we'd still probably get some Greek BTC action (with whatever $$$ they had left after the gov't washed the EU's into the New greek currency say
at a 50% loss but I'd think after the fact we'd have a lot I mean a lot of enthusiastic greek bitoin'ers after the fact of such a boat missed (ie monday they wake
up banks closed and all the FUD)

imho there would be 'quite the come to bitcoin jesus moment after the fact don't ya know!!!'

(I myself remember my come to bitcoin jesus moment on the perils of pre-ordering ASIC machines...shudder)

wisdom ouch it hurts!

Greece and other countries must kick out gold standard (euro) and adopt keynesian policy. Keynes was genius.

So the thing is Greeks could wake up Monday morning and banks will be... closed!

This is going to be something.

Because there are few other options. If Greece is kicked out of the Euro Zone, then they can't use Euro, and the option of using other currencies such as the UKP and USD are also not viable, since the US and the UK will not allow that. If they re-introduce the Dachma, then it will quickly lose its value on the Forex market.

i agree but i guess they will make it through i dont knowmuch about there situation
but we can only hope for the best

The scenareo is very open right now. Varou is pushing these guys to the limit and they are extremely pissed out. I don't get how he managed to get those 3.000 million more from the ECB. Its only a matter of time they get feed up and Greece leaves.

This thesis is far-fetched. Why should the Greek government make the country conditional on the Russian national bank?

Almost NO state ever pays back its debts.  In fact, almost every state debt is just a Ponzi scheme, paying back former loans with even bigger new loans.  The only thing that varies is the ratio of the total amount of debt and the economic activity.  In case of strong economic growth and small deficit, the relative debt to the GDP can decrease.  But very rarely the absolute debt decreases.

Japan too, has no intentions ever to pay back its debt.  But as long as creditors are willing to believe that THEIR loan will be paid back because the state at hand will find a next bigger fool creditor (exactly as in a Ponzi), they will be willing to give out new loans.

What happened to Greece was simply that the belief that the Greek gouvernment would be able to find next bigger fools was gone.

This could in fact happen to any state playing the eternal debt Ponzi scheme.  Of course for a state like Germany with only 65% debt and almost no deficit, there's little chance that they won't find a next bigger fool creditor for the moment, so it is pretty safe to bet on giving them a loan.  For a state like Greece, with more than 150% debt and 12% deficit, that was over the limit of the belief of a next bigger fool.  That's what got them in this mess.

But in fact, Greek debt isn't supposed to be paid back.  Just to be replaced with eternal new loans.  As most state debts in the world.

Until the Ponzi collapses.

As I understand it Greeks are very proud, I doubt they would switch currencies and (so obviously) be beholden to another power. At this point I don't believe they will default- the misguided idealogy of the EU seems likely to prevail. But what do I know? I'm just a guy on the internet

The Drachma will at least have some value. Anyway, if the Drachma experiment fails, the Greek government will make the Russian Ruble as the national currency and make the pension payments in Ruble. Also, most of the Greek oil imports come from Russia. They will be having no issues, if the Greeks pay them with Rubles instead of Euros.

This will probably happen as soon as capital controls are established. To transfer their money abroad many will exchange it to Bitcoin and re-exchange it on the destination. That happened in Cyprus 2013 and was certainly one of the reasons why Bitcoin was pumped that much during this time.

It obviously looks like they are already successful as the default issue was taking place around April 07. Best outcome for us would be that Greece adopts btc but it would be too good to be true.

"Right now, what the market has priced in is a reasonably positive outcome, one that would delay any default,"

- Millan Mulraine, deputy head of U.S. strategy at TD Securities in New York.

The U.S Strategy is already working on delaying the default and they just might give a better outcome to the situation.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2015/06/19/greek-debt-crisis/28973733/

yeah Russia just from its image and super power status hits lately would love to be seen as the 'savior of Greece' even if it hurt Russia as a bottom line with fiat $$$$

just to stick it in the EU's eye..not to mention NATO I"m sure as a condition there would be Russian ships in Greek ports..the whole reason for Crimea was to have
such access...with Russia and loans would Greece really say .if no longer part of EU ...er NO ..to a couple Russian bases? It is setup to be a WIN/WIN/WIN for Russia imho.

but defaulting 137B to the Russians in a few years would be solved in a more 'immediate' way imho

thou such a Russian Aid Package ..as a lever the EU will cave and make the loans ..again in my view...it will make a temp band aid and again kick the can down the road...they can probably lurch from crisis to crisis just fine ..the EU members calling the shots..for many years

better a 1/20th loss per year to the EU on this farce for 20 years then the whole thing due to the EU taxpayers etc in one shot

they will settle imho till the next crisis likely say in 4 months  ...this will repeat for many many months/years imho

truth be told the only way Greece can get out of this is dealing with the EU and 3% bonds etc and a 20 year plan...its either
that or the EU lets them go hat in hand to the Russian Trade pack thingy they are trying (or were) to build

strange bedfellows indeed

well played Greece well played..that will make them sit up and take more notice of your clout .a trade/loan alignment with Russia..stuck it to the EU good with that move

so again the fix is in the works (for now) again my speculation on all this geo politic vs just $$$ aside

Sorry but the Troika are plain idiots..They want to impoverish every country they lay their hands on..I mean what kind of economists impoverish a nation that then has no buying power, so in effect VAT will also go down because no one has any money to buy anything DUH  TROIKA = DIVS.. No offense but creating a sustainable and growing economy is far better for all concerned and this is what Tsipras is on about but the big Sharks that be just don't want a prosperous and buzzing economy of thriving people who can give back MORE in effect through direct and indirect taxes than by starving and waiting in the queues for aid to be fed..

Greece can earn plenty through deals with Russia and China and other countries..It is in a very nice spot geographically and once the Russian pipeline goes in and China grows it's presence in Piraeus that will be a nice chink of revenue coming in.. Greece has also a lot of land so more should be invested in the agrarian sector as well.. If the Brits want out of the Eurozone because they don't like the German axis muscling in on their sovereignty then why should it be such a disaster if Greece left? Greece did fine before the EU..now all Greece needs to do is get it's tax system in order and the ministry of corruption do its job to kick out all the corrupt govt officials.. Once Greece can clean up its act internally it can be a really prosperous place..oh we have the tourist industry as well, I forgot about that!

It would still be easier to buy bitcoins, transfer them out and reconvert them to USD.
Not sure if there are any restrictions on Greeks buying dollars, but bitcoins can help circumvent that.

Hehe, indeed. It happened before, and it will happen again. Just take a hard look at the numbers -- there is no way in hell that Greece can repay its debts. This whole thing is some sort of a dog-and-pony show. It's ridiculous. Just get it over with already. Refinance it per usual, or Grexit. Let's do it.

My mistake, sorry.


It's not only Goldman Sucks, it's all taxpayers in the whole European Union. The pensioners would go through much harder times if Greece pays their pensions in drachmas. It will be tough for drivers, too. The oil companies will not accept drachmas...