would be interested in OPs opinion about market now - were you collecting?
pretty much agree with the 2.0 projects - however they will not become bigger as the reserve currency
Topic: If someone buys Bitcoin today, they'll be lucky to see a 300%+ ROI. (Read 17741 times)
January 31, 2015, 05:58:11 PM
January 31, 2015, 04:40:54 PM
Yea we pretty much bottomed out here. Good times ahead. Finally!
Sure we may go down a little more but not by much.
Sure we may go down a little more but not by much.
I am sure 90% of the people are waiting for next year to end , and see what happens after the halving happens.
Some would say that since the halving is a known quantity, that it'll be priced in long before it happens. It's likely to impact things just as the last one did, simple supply and demand (however, speculator actions might still maintain a stronger effect on things). I don't think you can easily isolate a single factor.
January 31, 2015, 01:58:59 PM
Yea we pretty much bottomed out here. Good times ahead. Finally!
Sure we may go down a little more but not by much.
Sure we may go down a little more but not by much.
I am sure 90% of the people are waiting for next year to end , and see what happens after the halving happens.
January 31, 2015, 08:14:08 AM
Well, it does show some upside.
That us a relief!
That us a relief!
I'm starting to see it as possibly a sort of blood in the streets indicator. I'd have to do further analysis on it to see what kind of a predictive measure that it might have.
365 days is somewhat arbitrary, but it's also the line between a short and long term capital gain here in the U.S., so, that's one of the reasons why I went with it. It also just happens to be a psychological reference period/time frame for people.
Back in 2012, it hit the low point where if you had bought any at the 2011 peak, a year later you would've been down 81% on those bitcoins. It actually dropped further than that in a shorter time period back in 2011, and was actually already rising by the time it hit the 365 day mark. This time around hasn't had quite the sheer percent magnitude drop of the 2011 crash, but this bear market has been much longer, and still just hit a low of -76% a couple of weeks ago (on January 15th, 2015).
January 31, 2015, 08:07:58 AM
For the record, I just sold all of my Bitcoins. I bought my first Bitcoins in June 2011 at around $28 and continued buying all the way down to $2. I actually bought about 8000 BTC around the time I made this post: http://www.thebitcointrader.com/2011/10/im-calling-bottom.html.
Needless to say, my return on investment was massive. We're talking 25,000% plus. For someone to see that kind of ROI today, Bitcoin would have to hit $125,000 each, or a market cap of $2.6 trillion on 21 million coins. Which brings me to my first point:
There's significantly less incentive for someone to speculate on Bitcoin today. To see a return comparable to what we've been seeing over the last couple of years, the amount of capital that would have to be injected into the markets is exponentially more than it was just over a year ago. This is going to cause investors to really do their homework before buying Bitcoin, and recent news events are exactly the sort of thing that will deter new investors.
Next, the vast majority of merchants are using Bitcoin as a protocol, not as a store of value. Anytime we hear of a new merchant choosing to "adopt Bitcoin," what they're actually doing is two-fold. One, they're getting free advertising for themselves, especially local businesses that find themselves on the front of the business sections of their local papers. Two, they're not adopting Bitcoin, they're adopting BitPay or Coinbase. These merchants care about lower fees and irreversible transactions, not so much the value of a Bitcoin itself. There are a few exceptions where the merchants retain some or all of the Bitcoins, but they're the minority, by far.
Third, Bitcoin early-adopters are cashing out. When you hear about Overstock, TigerDirect, Fancy, and others doing hundreds of thousands, if not millions of dollars of business in Bitcoin, those are old Bitcoins that are being sold. No one is going out to buy Bitcoins so they can make purchases they could already make with PayPal. It's inefficient and expensive.
Finally, there are better protocols that are being derived from and have improved upon Bitcoin. If Bitcoin is more useful to businesses as a protocol, then why wouldn't a better protocol oust Bitcoin in the long run? The Bitcoin 2.0s of the world (Ethereum, Open Transactions, Ripple, etc) will eventually unseat Bitcoin. Some say that Bitcoin will remain an ideal store of value, and the other technologies will become the ideal "payment rails," but is Bitcoin really a good store of value if 35% of Bitcoins are held in only 500 addresses?
Anyway, suffice it to say that I'm not done in the crypto-currency space. I've divested into Bitcoin 2.0 technologies, and look forward to seeing the space grow. I expect to see better returns on those investments than I would if I simply held Bitcoin.
Needless to say, my return on investment was massive. We're talking 25,000% plus. For someone to see that kind of ROI today, Bitcoin would have to hit $125,000 each, or a market cap of $2.6 trillion on 21 million coins. Which brings me to my first point:
There's significantly less incentive for someone to speculate on Bitcoin today. To see a return comparable to what we've been seeing over the last couple of years, the amount of capital that would have to be injected into the markets is exponentially more than it was just over a year ago. This is going to cause investors to really do their homework before buying Bitcoin, and recent news events are exactly the sort of thing that will deter new investors.
Next, the vast majority of merchants are using Bitcoin as a protocol, not as a store of value. Anytime we hear of a new merchant choosing to "adopt Bitcoin," what they're actually doing is two-fold. One, they're getting free advertising for themselves, especially local businesses that find themselves on the front of the business sections of their local papers. Two, they're not adopting Bitcoin, they're adopting BitPay or Coinbase. These merchants care about lower fees and irreversible transactions, not so much the value of a Bitcoin itself. There are a few exceptions where the merchants retain some or all of the Bitcoins, but they're the minority, by far.
Third, Bitcoin early-adopters are cashing out. When you hear about Overstock, TigerDirect, Fancy, and others doing hundreds of thousands, if not millions of dollars of business in Bitcoin, those are old Bitcoins that are being sold. No one is going out to buy Bitcoins so they can make purchases they could already make with PayPal. It's inefficient and expensive.
Finally, there are better protocols that are being derived from and have improved upon Bitcoin. If Bitcoin is more useful to businesses as a protocol, then why wouldn't a better protocol oust Bitcoin in the long run? The Bitcoin 2.0s of the world (Ethereum, Open Transactions, Ripple, etc) will eventually unseat Bitcoin. Some say that Bitcoin will remain an ideal store of value, and the other technologies will become the ideal "payment rails," but is Bitcoin really a good store of value if 35% of Bitcoins are held in only 500 addresses?
Anyway, suffice it to say that I'm not done in the crypto-currency space. I've divested into Bitcoin 2.0 technologies, and look forward to seeing the space grow. I expect to see better returns on those investments than I would if I simply held Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is stronger and more widely known than a few years ago so it is safer to invest now. We could see a price of 10 000$ soon when the US is hit by a massive currency crisis.
January 31, 2015, 04:36:01 AM
Yea we pretty much bottomed out here. Good times ahead. Finally!
Sure we may go down a little more but not by much.
Sure we may go down a little more but not by much.
January 31, 2015, 03:38:49 AM
I forgot that I'd posted that chart in this thread. Here's an update:
Well, it does show some upside.
That us a relief!
January 31, 2015, 12:57:14 AM
I forgot that I'd posted that chart in this thread. Here's an update:
January 30, 2015, 02:11:44 PM
correct - this man is on the money
November 01, 2014, 11:29:09 AM
Here's an update of my chart, with the projected red (if price stays the same) extended through the top of last year's peak. I haven't forgotten about requests for other time windows, btw, I just haven't had the chance to put them together.
October 24, 2014, 08:43:57 AM
So? Your advice is? Do not get in the bitcoin biz?
his advice was "you are late to the party sir, don't get over excited"
October 23, 2014, 11:45:48 PM
So? Your advice is? Do not get in the bitcoin biz?
October 23, 2014, 09:37:38 PM
Nice. While you are at it, could you find out what returns two years of holding would have given? Or, how long period would be necessary to have had a positive return?
The actual chart for a two-year time horizon isn't anything special, but looking at the data, I calculated that around a 269% gain would have been the worst that you could have done. Essentially, this was if you bought in on the day of the June 2011 peak, and then sold on its two year anniversary. Still not a bad two-year investment if you really had the fortitude to have held over that tumultuous period! If you'd really made it that far, you'd likely not have sold on the exact two-year anniversary, anyway.
The best two-year return, on the other hand, would have been if you bought in during the first week of December 2011 and sold near the peak in December 2013, with a gain of nearly 40,000%!
Finally, the smallest investment horizon across which you'd never have gone into the negative, no matter when you bought in, looks to be around 623 days (~20.5 months or 1.71 years). The single culprit behind this long of a period of time was the steep mid-2011 bubble and bust, with the daily average high back then being close to $30, which was not eclipsed until the end of February 2013.
Good numbers, thanks.
October 23, 2014, 11:51:05 AM
This thread reminds me of a chart I've been working on to show what the return on a 365-day investment in bitcoins has been over time.
[…]
For context: For much of May-August 2012, you would have taken a loss on year-old bitcoins. This is contrary to the idea going around that if one had simply bought and held for at least a year, he would have always profited.
Very nice, and I'd love to see both a two-year and a 3-year chart![…]
For context: For much of May-August 2012, you would have taken a loss on year-old bitcoins. This is contrary to the idea going around that if one had simply bought and held for at least a year, he would have always profited.
I can post a "rough draft" of the two and three-year charts later, but I won't have the time to keep them all updated right now; one is enough for me based on how it's currently implemented. (I've actually had to trick Excel a bit just to get the log axis to display correctly with negative data, and I'd have to redo how the spreadsheet is organized to handle more than one chart per sheet). Some further caveats: Since the Bitcoin data, by definition, only go back to July 2010, the longer a period one chooses, the fewer the data points there are to display.
And, given the large difference in price over such a long period, the three year chart seems to just take on the appearance of an exaggerated recent price chart, for the most part. The only impactful bit I gained from it was that if you really had been holding that long, you should've sold back at the end of November, not waited for the full three years! Hindsight is 20/20. From November 29th until June 8th of this year, it was down-down-down, from ~539,000%(!) to a chart "low" of 2118%. Still not a bad return, of course, to make over 21 times your investment, but 5390x is what really makes people millionaires. You just can't know where you stand when you buy, and there's always the chance of missing a peak if you wait to sell. If you bought at ~$30 and expect the same returns as the earliest investors, you'll have to be hodling 'til it's $161,700!
October 23, 2014, 10:00:31 AM
This thread reminds me of a chart I've been working on to show what the return on a 365-day investment in bitcoins has been over time.
[…]
For context: For much of May-August 2012, you would have taken a loss on year-old bitcoins. This is contrary to the idea going around that if one had simply bought and held for at least a year, he would have always profited.
Very nice, and I'd love to see both a two-year and a 3-year chart! […]
For context: For much of May-August 2012, you would have taken a loss on year-old bitcoins. This is contrary to the idea going around that if one had simply bought and held for at least a year, he would have always profited.
October 23, 2014, 09:53:00 AM
Nice. While you are at it, could you find out what returns two years of holding would have given? Or, how long period would be necessary to have had a positive return?
The actual chart for a two-year time horizon isn't anything special, but looking at the data, I calculated that around a 269% gain would have been the worst that you could have done. Essentially, this was if you bought in on the day of the June 2011 peak, and then sold on its two year anniversary. Still not a bad two-year investment if you really had the fortitude to have held over that tumultuous period! If you'd really made it that far, you'd likely not have sold on the exact two-year anniversary, anyway.
The best two-year return, on the other hand, would have been if you bought in during the first week of December 2011 and sold near the peak in December 2013, with a gain of nearly 40,000%!
Finally, the smallest investment horizon across which you'd never have gone into the negative, no matter when you bought in, looks to be around 623 days (~20.5 months or 1.71 years). The single culprit behind this long of a period of time was the steep mid-2011 bubble and bust, with the daily average high back then being close to $30, which was not eclipsed until the end of February 2013.
October 23, 2014, 07:55:25 AM
This thread reminds me of a chart I've been working on to show what the return on a 365-day investment in bitcoins has been over time. I get the data from the following page: https://www.quandl.com/BAVERAGE/USD-USD-BITCOIN-Weighted-Price
I've filled in occasional missing dates with the previous day's price.
The dates along the horizontal axis represent hypothetical sell dates following a hold of exactly a year. The vertical axis shows the percentage gain or loss that one would have experienced had he decided to sell his bitcoins that he'd purchased exactly a year prior.
For context: For much of May-August 2012, you would have taken a loss on year-old bitcoins. This is contrary to the idea going around that if one had simply bought and held for at least a year, he would have always profited. I will be watching to see if we continue to approach 0%, and hoping that we don't. I've added the red line to show what the future data will look like if the current price remains constant through 11/15/2014.
I've filled in occasional missing dates with the previous day's price.
The dates along the horizontal axis represent hypothetical sell dates following a hold of exactly a year. The vertical axis shows the percentage gain or loss that one would have experienced had he decided to sell his bitcoins that he'd purchased exactly a year prior.
For context: For much of May-August 2012, you would have taken a loss on year-old bitcoins. This is contrary to the idea going around that if one had simply bought and held for at least a year, he would have always profited. I will be watching to see if we continue to approach 0%, and hoping that we don't. I've added the red line to show what the future data will look like if the current price remains constant through 11/15/2014.
Nice. While you are at it, could you find out what returns two years of holding would have given? Or, how long period would be necessary to have had a positive return?
October 23, 2014, 12:30:52 AM
This thread reminds me of a chart I've been working on to show what the return on a 365-day investment in bitcoins has been over time. I get the data from the following page: https://www.quandl.com/BAVERAGE/USD-USD-BITCOIN-Weighted-Price
I've filled in occasional missing dates with the previous day's price.
The dates along the horizontal axis represent hypothetical sell dates following a hold of exactly a year. The vertical axis shows the percentage gain or loss that one would have experienced had he decided to sell his bitcoins that he'd purchased exactly a year prior.
For context: For much of May-August 2012, you would have taken a loss on year-old bitcoins. This is contrary to the idea going around that if one had simply bought and held for at least a year, he would have always profited. I will be watching to see if we continue to approach 0%, and hoping that we don't. I've added the red line to show what the future data will look like if the current price remains constant through 11/15/2014.
I've filled in occasional missing dates with the previous day's price.
The dates along the horizontal axis represent hypothetical sell dates following a hold of exactly a year. The vertical axis shows the percentage gain or loss that one would have experienced had he decided to sell his bitcoins that he'd purchased exactly a year prior.
For context: For much of May-August 2012, you would have taken a loss on year-old bitcoins. This is contrary to the idea going around that if one had simply bought and held for at least a year, he would have always profited. I will be watching to see if we continue to approach 0%, and hoping that we don't. I've added the red line to show what the future data will look like if the current price remains constant through 11/15/2014.
October 22, 2014, 01:41:21 PM
If I want to buy something online I will only pay in Bitcoin unless it's not available with a merchant who accepts Bitcoin.
I buy on Coinbase and then use those Bitcoins to pay for my order. I think there's a large enough community where if more did this it would greatly affect the Bitcoin economy.
Honestly I think Bitcoin can easily hit $125,000 per coin in a few years. Considering the sheer size of the mining infrastructure, the scope of the new innovations on the horizon, the ones that we know about...
I think the exchange price is irrelevant right now; it doesn't reflect any weakness or limit it's potential growth.
I guess we'll see how it turns out. I wish I had the opportunity to get in when you did. I hadn't even heard about Bitcoin until November 2013...
I buy on Coinbase and then use those Bitcoins to pay for my order. I think there's a large enough community where if more did this it would greatly affect the Bitcoin economy.
Honestly I think Bitcoin can easily hit $125,000 per coin in a few years. Considering the sheer size of the mining infrastructure, the scope of the new innovations on the horizon, the ones that we know about...
I think the exchange price is irrelevant right now; it doesn't reflect any weakness or limit it's potential growth.
I guess we'll see how it turns out. I wish I had the opportunity to get in when you did. I hadn't even heard about Bitcoin until November 2013...
Paying for stuff with BTC does NOT help at all. Because the retailer or merchant simply dump that BTC into the market and covert it back into fiat. The only way BTC will go up is when the people who you pay with BTC, once again use it to pay others and a proper cycle is formed. Tipping with BTC helps since there is a chance that that person will once again rotate BTC to someone else.
The day we see people getting PAID in BTC as salaries is when it becomes a real currency. But then again, the price of BTC will not be so low like as well. So now is a good time to buy BTC!
This. The only salary you can make with BTC now are laughable, like sig campaings and what not, waste of time unless you are in a 3rd world country or something. You can make more flipping burgers in any developed country.
OP has been spot on. The only way Bitcoin can take off now is it simply gets trendy as fuck with correct marketing and so on, if it becomes a "cool" thing to own/use, because for the common folk it's pretty pointless, unless it's cool.
I make good money programming computers and I'm paid in BTC.
I know I'm in the minority, but there are jobs available out there. Take a look around the services subsection of the marketplace sometime.
And no, I'm not going to tell you who I work for or how much I make. That's none of your business. But I can tell you it involves web development in the Ruby language.
It works like this: I work, I earn an hourly rate in $. When I get paid, the dollar amount I've earned is converted to BTC (whether an actual exchange takes place is up to my employer, they hold BTC as well) and then sent to me.
October 22, 2014, 01:34:49 PM
If I want to buy something online I will only pay in Bitcoin unless it's not available with a merchant who accepts Bitcoin.
I buy on Coinbase and then use those Bitcoins to pay for my order. I think there's a large enough community where if more did this it would greatly affect the Bitcoin economy.
Honestly I think Bitcoin can easily hit $125,000 per coin in a few years. Considering the sheer size of the mining infrastructure, the scope of the new innovations on the horizon, the ones that we know about...
I think the exchange price is irrelevant right now; it doesn't reflect any weakness or limit it's potential growth.
I guess we'll see how it turns out. I wish I had the opportunity to get in when you did. I hadn't even heard about Bitcoin until November 2013...
I buy on Coinbase and then use those Bitcoins to pay for my order. I think there's a large enough community where if more did this it would greatly affect the Bitcoin economy.
Honestly I think Bitcoin can easily hit $125,000 per coin in a few years. Considering the sheer size of the mining infrastructure, the scope of the new innovations on the horizon, the ones that we know about...
I think the exchange price is irrelevant right now; it doesn't reflect any weakness or limit it's potential growth.
I guess we'll see how it turns out. I wish I had the opportunity to get in when you did. I hadn't even heard about Bitcoin until November 2013...
Paying for stuff with BTC does NOT help at all. Because the retailer or merchant simply dump that BTC into the market and covert it back into fiat. The only way BTC will go up is when the people who you pay with BTC, once again use it to pay others and a proper cycle is formed. Tipping with BTC helps since there is a chance that that person will once again rotate BTC to someone else.
The day we see people getting PAID in BTC as salaries is when it becomes a real currency. But then again, the price of BTC will not be so low like as well. So now is a good time to buy BTC!
This. The only salary you can make with BTC now are laughable, like sig campaings and what not, waste of time unless you are in a 3rd world country or something. You can make more flipping burgers in any developed country.
OP has been spot on. The only way Bitcoin can take off now is it simply gets trendy as fuck with correct marketing and so on, if it becomes a "cool" thing to own/use, because for the common folk it's pretty pointless, unless it's cool.
I make good money programing computers and I'm paid in BTC.
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