Topic: If someone buys Bitcoin today, they&#039;ll be lucky to see a 300%+ ROI. - page 8. (Read 17741 times)

Quote from: Peter R on March 02, 2014, 01:30:27 PM

For the record, I just sold all of my Bitcoins.

Given the viewpoint you expressed above, I'm surprised that you didn't sell your bitcoins in November to January for over $1000. Why did you feel they were worth holding at a higher price a few months ago, and worth selling now at a lower price today?

most likely a sheep

GoWest

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I was interested because I actually view the MtGox fiasco as medium and long term bullish (especially if the missing coins were stollen in 2011 and long ago sold into the market). I see this event as the impetus needed to create real exchanges in the US, as well as a supply shock reducing the bitcoins currently available for purchase.

That's the million dollar question, isn't it? Based on the various attempts at investigative journalism I've read, I'm leaning more towards the Bitcoins having been either seized or temporarily frozen by the US government due to something likely related to the Silk Road investigation, or to money transmitter licensing issues.

If they have in fact already disappeared and were sold, or the private keys have been lost, then I agree with you that it's a bullish situation. I'm just concerned that the US government may now be in control of hundreds of thousands of coins. To me, the downside risk of such a reality makes an investment in Bitcoin untenable at this juncture.

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Quote from: GoWest on March 02, 2014, 01:13:08 PM

The top was not obvious until it was passed. I was hoping to see a return to the $800 level before I sold the remainder, but the Mt.Gox fiasco has motivated me to sell earlier.

Fair enough. Thank you for the explanation.

I was interested because I actually view the MtGox fiasco as medium and long term bullish (especially if the missing coins were stollen in 2011 and long ago sold into the market). I see this event as the impetus needed to create real exchanges in the US, as well as a supply shock reducing the bitcoins currently available for purchase.

Quote

Alright, alright, bad math acknowledged. However, I stand by the point I was trying to make.

Thanks for acknowledging the mistake. But your point that it would likely take an order of magnitude more fiat is still valid. My counter argument is that more than an order of magnitude more people now know about bitcoin and may be considering purchasing some.

Only time will tell....

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Quote from: GoWest on March 02, 2014, 01:20:06 PM

Quote from: Peter R on March 02, 2014, 01:03:33 PM

Quote from: Peter R on March 02, 2014, 01:03:33 PM

yes you do make really valid points there, but again who though that bitcoin could go to $1000 in one year when buying at $10 ....

It took $6.8 billion to get from $10 to $500. It would take $63 billion to get to $5000/Bitcoin. A lot of people are counting on Wall St. and institutional investors to make that happen, but $63 billion is A LOT of money, even for Wall St. How likely is it that investors will come up with $63 billion to put into a speculative currency?

Why, because 12.5 million coins x $5000 = $63 billion? I'm surprised someone who's been here since 2011 could still think this.

Alright, alright, bad math acknowledged. However, I stand by the point I was trying to make.

yes growth will slow down after a certain price is reached, I think this is what you were implying to...

GoWest

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Quote from: Mitzplik on March 02, 2014, 01:08:41 PM

yes you do make really valid points there, but again who though that bitcoin could go to $1000 in one year when buying at $10 ....

It took $6.8 billion to get from $10 to $500. It would take $63 billion to get to $5000/Bitcoin. A lot of people are counting on Wall St. and institutional investors to make that happen, but $63 billion is A LOT of money, even for Wall St. How likely is it that investors will come up with $63 billion to put into a speculative currency?

Why, because 12.5 million coins x $5000 = $63 billion? I'm surprised someone who's been here since 2011 could still think this.

Alright, alright, bad math acknowledged. However, I stand by the point I was trying to make.

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If its already awesome, it wouldn't be cheap.
Its similar to when the OP bought his BTC

Ripple was started by the original Mt.Gox CEO. I wouldn't go anywhere near something founded by Magic The Gathering folk.

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Quote from: FierceRadish on March 02, 2014, 01:12:54 PM

yes you do make really valid points there, but again who though that bitcoin could go to $1000 in one year when buying at $10 ....

It took $6.8 billion to get from $10 to $500. It would take $63 billion to get to $5000/Bitcoin. A lot of people are counting on Wall St. and institutional investors to make that happen, but $63 billion is A LOT of money, even for Wall St. How likely is it that investors will come up with $63 billion to put into a speculative currency?

facepalm.jpg

Mitzplik

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Aside from all the possible counter-arguments, there's an implication here that 300% is a poor rate of return. Tell that to the average stock investor.

For sure this is very risky and it could be -1000% too.

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Quote from: Peter R on March 02, 2014, 01:06:03 PM

Quote from: GoWest on March 02, 2014, 12:59:32 PM

For the record, I just sold all of my Bitcoins.

Given the viewpoint you expressed above, I'm surprised that you didn't sell your bitcoins in November to January for over $1000. Why did you feel they were worth holding at a higher price a few months ago, and worth selling now at a lower price today?

I should have clarified. I didn't sell all of my Bitcoins just now. I've been gradually selling them on the way up, and sold the last large chunk in the last 48 hours.

I think most investors slowly divest as the price climbs. This is a logical way to diversify.

But what I wanted to know is why did you feel the "last large chunk" was worth holding at a higher price a few months ago, and worth selling now at a lower price today?

The top was not obvious until it was passed. I was hoping to see a return to the $800 level before I sold the remainder, but the Mt.Gox fiasco has motivated me to sell earlier.

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Aside from all the possible counter-arguments, there's an implication here that 300% is a poor rate of return. Tell that to the average stock investor.

mmitech

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yes you do make really valid points there, but again who though that bitcoin could go to $1000 in one year when buying at $10 ....

It took $6.8 billion to get from $10 to $500. It would take $63 billion to get to $5000/Bitcoin. A lot of people are counting on Wall St. and institutional investors to make that happen, but $63 billion is A LOT of money, even for Wall St. How likely is it that investors will come up with $63 billion to put into a speculative currency?

while I really appreciate the math you did there and while you have a strong and valid point regarding the growth strongly slowing down when reaching some point (I think this is what you are trying to point out)but again, you are ignoring a really important fact, let me point out few things out.

-there is more than 12 million BTC on existence (without ignoring lost bitcoins or satoshi's coins...) now you don't need to dump all these coins to bring the price to 0, I was discussing this before on the wall observer, if you have around 100K available for instant dump on all exchanges, you can bring the price to 0 and kill confidence... but if you had that amount of coins you wouldn't do that because this is plain stupid, why sell for 30 millions or less when you can sell for 5 or 10 times that in batches.

- we would never reach the $1000/BTC if all coins on circulation were traded daily in other words if we had that volume.... there is no demand near that point yet not even near 5% of that, we are far and so far from that point.

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The needed numbers don't match, but the scales do.

The amount of money to 3 times the current price is 3 times the amount invested thus far.

And it's very questionable if bitcoin is going to be THE currency... It has users now, but just considering how easy it would be for a new alt-coin to get in if the really big players would go with it, like Amazon, Paypal and Google.

Just consider those 3 would start offering it as option for payment for all the sites they are now available... Why would they, because they would be early adopters in that case and gain the benefits form it instead of giving it to current early adopters...

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Quote from: Dalmar on March 02, 2014, 12:54:41 PM

Is Bitcoin really a good store of value if 35% of Bitcoins are held in only 500 addresses?

As much as I don't like paraphrasing Paul Krugman, I think you're conflating normative and positive analysis here. You are basically making the argument that Bitcoin has a socially undesirable element to it because it has high wealth concentration. However, that does not mean jack to someone looking to preserve the value of their own wealth, and people who have wealth will not put their money into media that try to wash wealth disparities away. Bitcoin has among the lowest inflation rates of cryptocurrencies, with the exception of 100% premined/presold coins like MSC, XRP and NXT, but most importantly it has the Schelling point aspect of being the first cryptocurrency out there. Bitcoin is temporally antecedent to every other crypto, and that is one property that it will never lose; hence, it will always be "special" amidst a sea of innumerable other cryptos no matter how powerful they are. That's why I can see it maintaining its value for quite a long time as a digital gold.

Mitzplik

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Ripple's chart just follows bitcoin and its liquidity is ridiculously poor. Don't see how that could go anywhere unless they convince big banks to accept their system. As for Ethereum, it lacks the elegance of bitcoin and nobody really even understands it.

If was already awesome, it wouldn't be cheap.
Its similar to when the OP bought his BTC

EDIT - Grammar

chesthing

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Thanks for the newsflash, captain obvious. Roll Eyes

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Quote from: GoWest on March 02, 2014, 12:59:32 PM

For the record, I just sold all of my Bitcoins.

Given the viewpoint you expressed above, I'm surprised that you didn't sell your bitcoins in November to January for over $1000. Why did you feel they were worth holding at a higher price a few months ago, and worth selling now at a lower price today?

I should have clarified. I didn't sell all of my Bitcoins just now. I've been gradually selling them on the way up, and sold the last large chunk in the last 48 hours.

I think most investors slowly divest as the price climbs. This is a logical way to diversify.

But what I wanted to know is why did you feel the "last large chunk" was worth holding at a higher price a few months ago, and worth selling now at a lower price today?

Peter R

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yes you do make really valid points there, but again who though that bitcoin could go to $1000 in one year when buying at $10 ....

It took $6.8 billion to get from $10 to $500. It would take $63 billion to get to $5000/Bitcoin. A lot of people are counting on Wall St. and institutional investors to make that happen, but $63 billion is A LOT of money, even for Wall St. How likely is it that investors will come up with $63 billion to put into a speculative currency?

Why, because 12.5 million coins x $5000 = $63 billion? I'm surprised someone who's been here since 2011 could still think this.

Cyberlight

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yes you do make really valid points there, but again who though that bitcoin could go to $1000 in one year when buying at $10 ....

It took $6.8 billion to get from $10 to $500. It would take $63 billion to get to $5000/Bitcoin. A lot of people are counting on Wall St. and institutional investors to make that happen, but $63 billion is A LOT of money, even for Wall St. How likely is it that investors will come up with $63 billion to put into a speculative currency?

You definitely not understand market capitalization , you dont need 63 billion dollars to get 5,000 dollar coins.

GoWest

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