If you could travel back in time today, what would you do?
Every now and then someone asks a similar question and each time I ask why don't people just buy bitcoin right now. It is not like we've reached the maximum price possible! Funny thing is that if you check the price at that time against current price you can see what those who didn't buy then, have already missed out.
For example you can see in
this topic some people say "they would have bought $X worth of bitcoins". Price that month dropped as low as $6k and today it is 5x higher! Do you think any of those guys bought bitcoin then instead of wishing they had a time machine?
Who knows, maybe in a couple of years from now I find
this topic and post it as an example for someone else who will have asked this question again
That is mostly true and I see it the same way, but the huge difference between back then and now is the significantly increased downside risk and the decreased upside potential. Nobody could have ever truly known how far Bitcoin will go, but when you consider its total supply and you would have decided to buy 10,000 Bitcoin for $45, you would have owned a significant share that either goes to 0 one day and you would be $45 poorer or you would hold a relatively significant share in something you think is interesting and somewhat different from other potential assets in a very tempting way.
This does not mean that Bitcoin can't outperform other assets anymore. It would probably will for quite some time, but if I am not mistaken, nothing has ever performed like Bitcoin I believe. The psychological effect on getting in when you know you have missed the train for over a decade is rooted in the accounting you do in your head. You think about the 10000x that it has done already and then you have doubts whether it can do it again and whether there is something else that could do this. Ultimately, you do know that it had never been easier to get rich and this has certainly become true for some of the earliest buyers.
It is said that seed investors take the biggest risk because they finance a start-up or product that is still in its infancy. In the case of Bitcoin there wasn't really any risk if you only look at the numbers. Throw 50 bucks at it and let it go. Couldn't have invested 50 bucks in Facebook or Amazon and also became as rich.