Some people believe that global warming is just the conspiracy to control the development of industrial country. Sometime, I think so. What about you?
Scientists worldwide agree that global warming is happening, and that human activity causes it...
No they do not.
They typically may say something like human activity is a partial factor.
It depends on semantics.
There are many peer reviewed studies that calculate the global warming consensus differently. The main difference is how they handle studies that do not take a stance one way or the other. Another factor is whether the the authors self rate their study or if they are rated abstractly.
In all cases, the % of studies with the stance that it's extremely likely that humans do not play a roll in global warming ranges from 0.4% to 2.1%.
When taking into consideration studies that do not take a stance, 33%-38% have a stance that it's extremely likely humans do play a roll, 63%-67% have no stance.
When only considering studies that take a stance one way or the other, ~97% of studies take a stance that it's extremely likely humans are the primary factor of global warming.
Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literatureWe analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991–2011 matching the topics 'global climate change' or 'global warming'. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. In a second phase of this study, we invited authors to rate their own papers. Compared to abstract ratings, a smaller percentage of self-rated papers expressed no position on AGW (35.5%). Among self-rated papers expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. For both abstract ratings and authors' self-ratings, the percentage of endorsements among papers expressing a position on AGW marginally increased over time. Our analysis indicates that the number of papers rejecting the consensus on AGW is a vanishingly small proportion of the published research.
Comment on 'Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature'Cook et al's highly influential consensus study (2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 024024) finds different results than previous studies in the consensus literature. It omits tests for systematic differences between raters. Many abstracts are unaccounted for. The paper does not discuss the procedures used to ensure independence between the raters, to ensure that raters did not use additional information, and to ensure that later ratings were not influenced by earlier results. Clarifying these issues would further strengthen the paper, and establish it as our best estimate of the consensus.
Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warmingThe consensus that humans are causing recent global warming is shared by 90%–100% of publishing climate scientists according to six independent studies by co-authors of this paper. Those results are consistent with the 97% consensus reported by Cook et al (Environ. Res. Lett. 8 024024) based on 11 944 abstracts of research papers, of which 4014 took a position on the cause of recent global warming. A survey of authors of those papers (N = 2412 papers) also supported a 97% consensus. Tol (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 048001) comes to a different conclusion using results from surveys of non-experts such as economic geologists and a self-selected group of those who reject the consensus. We demonstrate that this outcome is not unexpected because the level of consensus correlates with expertise in climate science. At one point, Tol also reduces the apparent consensus by assuming that abstracts that do not explicitly state the cause of global warming ('no position') represent non-endorsement, an approach that if applied elsewhere would reject consensus on well-established theories such as plate tectonics. We examine the available studies and conclude that the finding of 97% consensus in published climate research is robust and consistent with other surveys of climate scientists and peer-reviewed studies.