Is the US economy suddenly recovering?

teosanru

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Quote from: Juggy777 on June 29, 2020, 07:56:40 AM

It was obvious that in the long run we would have seen the US economy recover, but honestly I wasn’t expecting US economy to recover so fast, or is this just another false positive for us?. I’m referring to the article posted by CNBC where they have shown stats which proves that the US economy has started recovering despite many states yet being in lockdown. What are your thoughts on this, will the US economy recover faster than what we had anticipated?.

Source:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/28/here-are-five-charts-illustrating-the-us-economic-recovery-amid-the-coronavirus-pandemic.html

I think there could be two reasons behind this. One is some great policies framed by the existing government because they wanted to clean the slate before the US Election in coming November. There was immediate action upon policies to boost economy. Second is that everything could merely be framed. Fed might have ensured that there is enough money in the market until end of the year and once elections are done Economy would show it's real colors. Because no one can digest the fact that the world is under a complete lockdown and we haven't had another black Monday until now.

Cnut237

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The economic impact of a pandemic will always be a lagging indicator. Obviously the US is still in the stage where infections are increasing... but even once the rate slows down, and all states are 100% re-opened, that doesn't mean that everything is suddenly back to normal from an economic perspective. The bailouts and the loss of business need to be paid for. Unemployment is likely to increase significantly. People are likely to have less money to spend, exacerbating the problem.

I think even once the pandemic is under control, it is far too early to be talking about the start of an economic recovery.

verita1

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The charts are not so convincing because we know that the USA is experiencing the worst coronavirus pandemic. If at least the rates of infected people were lower than the current ones, these figures would be encouraging. But the USA is a strong and experienced nation that will achieve the desired economic recovery that will benefit all of us.

Axelseseclevz

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In the latest news ,US still a high record of covid possitive in just 24hours. I don't think that US country economy are now suddenly recovering although we know that every country implementing a new normal that can help the economy rise again and not to collapse totally. I still believed that US economy won't collapse easily. The Government will make sure that they will recover after this pandemic.

Mame89

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Quote from: Kong Hey Pakboy on July 16, 2020, 05:39:52 AM

Quote from: bitbunnny on July 15, 2020, 04:38:50 PM

I wouldn't say that is recovering at all. At first US predicted they will not be so hit with pandemic, which was wrong, and that their economy will recover within few months, which was again wrong.
The fact is that people are still losing jobs and companies are struggling to survive, like in many other countries in the world. And to my opinion that is just the begininig of crisis and recovery is still far away.

Most of the countries that have been affected by the pandemic of COVID-19, including the US country that they are having a huge problem recovering their economy because most businesses shut down and employees lost their jobs due to community quarantine lockdown. It is the reason why a lot of people is struggling just to provide their necessities and pay their bills.

see conditions like making people worry. the economic impact of covid-19 will increase dramatically everywhere, the severity of the impact depends on how long the pandemic lasts ..
in a poor community where many individuals from various neighborhoods have to work day to day to be able to eat, the call for social isolation will be very difficult. In fact, it is impossible to obey, worldwide, when individuals lose their jobs. There should be an increase in homelessness and hunger

BuNga_cute

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If you look at the data from CNBC COVID-19 positive cases in the US continues to grow to reach 3 million people, even on July 16 based on
John Hopkins data universities with the positive addition of COVID-19 throughout the US, around 71 thousand people. I doubt the US economy
will recover suddenly, according to an official of the Central Bank of America saying clearly that the recovery of the US economy will be slower
than expected. That is because the surge in COVID-19 infections across the United States continues to grow.

Shimmiry

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US economy is having a difficult time recovering their economy since the lockdown was implanted because thousands of people have temporarily stopped their jobs and businesses. Good thing that the US and other countries have lifted the lockdown because their economy is making a considerable downfall, so I think the US has stopped its economy from falling.

Wexnident

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Probably half fake. It's probably just to appease the masses about the current state of affairs of the US especially in this case where they have to do everything to make it seem like everything is okay. That, or just the info actually not really releasing any relevant info with regards to the economy. We may say that everything would return to normal since quarantine period is easing up and all of that, but the amount of businesses that could go back to a 100% can be counted in one's hands most likely.

And recovering is a too much of an optimistic period imo. It may have stopped dropping, but that's it. It hasn't recovered, but it also hasn't dropped more so than it already has. I expect the economy to actually below the average of the past years and that's already an optimistic view with regards to this years economy.

kolbalish

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Us economy is being dominated by the Chinese economy from the last few months. Despite Us wanted to recover but there has some issues in their end for this pandemic and some recent issues. For this reason, they are still trying to recover and it a small part of making positive things to people.

Negotiation

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Although the United States is recovering very quickly from the effects of the virus it will take some time for the economy to recover Many companies have shut down their businesses because other countries are still unable to cope with the effects of the virus. It will take time for the economy to recover if production and inflation do not slow down.

Savemore

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Quote from: elisabetheva on July 16, 2020, 06:09:29 AM

Quote from: ChiBitCTy on July 15, 2020, 09:49:08 AM

I don't think the economy is actually recovering I think however that the stock market is painting a bit of a false positive as it's been roaring back since it drastically fell in March/April. I think when quarter two reports come out, and we realize how many businesses are truly struggling or have gone out of business all together.

indeed there will be panic in dealing with things that are not expected at all and assume that time is something that will be easily overcome, so it is not prepared properly.
when all the panic had happened it was inevitable and enveloped all state institutions.

of course many will predict that difficulties will not be easily resolved quickly, but we know that as a big country, of course, have experience that can be done to follow up on what has happened with all the possibilities and a measurable and tested analysis to be able to cope with things like this.

although it might not be easy to overcome it immediately, but all can believe that as a big country there are certainly alternatives that can be done to immediately be resolved.

I think only HongKong is the certain country who treats this virus seriously when it strikes. They are the 1st country who immediately imposed travel ban from Wuhan, China when the first researchers found out that this is serious. The action of the government is really good and that is why they do not have any active cases today and they are living normal like before.

Most of the countries are still suffering because of the pandemic, I know that the business around the world especially the small businesses are still closed because of the pandemic. There are some that declared bankruptcy where they cannot operate anymore. Even 1st world countries are having hard time to survive in this pandemic so for sure that it will really take a long period of time for us to see the new normal.

ser7878

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Quote from: Vishnu.Reang on July 12, 2020, 07:42:26 AM

Quote from: thesmallgod on July 09, 2020, 01:22:23 PM

US is witnessing the second wave of the pandemic recently with over 50k cases recorded recently in a day which goes a long way to tell us the economy recovery will be very difficult. Currently the US government is having a serious argument with the education board that has makes it clear that student will not resume schools. US economy recovery policy is flexible but there is currently no certainty that the economy will recover rapidly

If that is the case, then an economic recovery may take many years. During the last 4-5 days, the United States has reported anywhere between 60,000 to 70,000 cases per day. And remember that this count is even more than the highest daily count we had, even during the peak of the first wave (when states such as New York and New Jersey were affected in April-May).

It surely can may take several years to recover completely. That's some sad news for all of us. But for a matter of fact I think that US govs decision to open cities and start working again is a good one.
Otherwise people would get sick anyway, but our resources would die so quickly without any liquidity on the market.
There were other options, but I don't think they were better

elisabetheva

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Quote from: ChiBitCTy on July 15, 2020, 09:49:08 AM

I don't think the economy is actually recovering I think however that the stock market is painting a bit of a false positive as it's been roaring back since it drastically fell in March/April. I think when quarter two reports come out, and we realize how many businesses are truly struggling or have gone out of business all together.

indeed there will be panic in dealing with things that are not expected at all and assume that time is something that will be easily overcome, so it is not prepared properly.
when all the panic had happened it was inevitable and enveloped all state institutions.

of course many will predict that difficulties will not be easily resolved quickly, but we know that as a big country, of course, have experience that can be done to follow up on what has happened with all the possibilities and a measurable and tested analysis to be able to cope with things like this.

although it might not be easy to overcome it immediately, but all can believe that as a big country there are certainly alternatives that can be done to immediately be resolved.

Kong Hey Pakboy

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Quote from: bitbunnny on July 15, 2020, 04:38:50 PM

I wouldn't say that is recovering at all. At first US predicted they will not be so hit with pandemic, which was wrong, and that their economy will recover within few months, which was again wrong.
The fact is that people are still losing jobs and companies are struggling to survive, like in many other countries in the world. And to my opinion that is just the begininig of crisis and recovery is still far away.

Most of the countries that have been affected by the pandemic of COVID-19, including the US country that they are having a huge problem recovering their economy because most businesses shut down and employees lost their jobs due to community quarantine lockdown. It is the reason why a lot of people is struggling just to provide their necessities and pay their bills.

bitbunnny

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I wouldn't say that is recovering at all. At first US predicted they will not be so hit with pandemic, which was wrong, and that their economy will recover within few months, which was again wrong.
The fact is that people are still losing jobs and companies are struggling to survive, like in many other countries in the world. And to my opinion that is just the begininig of crisis and recovery is still far away.

beerlover

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It is actually not recovering so "suddenly" because it is not recovering at all. You know what you are seeing? You are seeing the affects of a nation that is making the companies so rich that the poor people do not even matter in the economical sense.

Just because NASDAQ went up doesn't mean that nation is doing better as a whole, you could just pay all those companies tens of billions of dollars, even hundreds of billions of dollars and those companies will recover because you are paying them what they would have made already without even having to work for it and those companies go up in stock price. That makes it look like those companies are doing much better and that resembles a sense of "well if they are doing better the nation must be doing better to make them profit this much" feeling but in reality people are still unemployed and poor.

perfect999

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The economy might be recovering or might not be but the charts can be deceptive because let me try and explain the situation with the help of an example.

Suppose bitcoins price is going down from 9000 to 7000 and during the downfall there is a little hike. Imagine it went to 8000 and then grown to 8100 and then again went down to 7000 would you call the price is recovering? Absolutely no, because the overall impact is negative and the similarly the economy has gone down overall no matter if you show a few charts and they try and impose an image of improving economy.

Sometimes the false image is being created to attract investors and more industries to their country because no one wants to invest in a country where the economy is sliding down.

ChiBitCTy

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I don't think the economy is actually recovering I think however that the stock market is painting a bit of a false positive as it's been roaring back since it drastically fell in March/April. I think when quarter two reports come out, and we realize how many businesses are truly struggling or have gone out of business all together.

Vishnu.Reang

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Quote from: Juggy777 on July 12, 2020, 08:17:50 AM

@Vishnu.Reang yea the US economy is faltering again, and the recent surge in cases is the primary reason why the economy has started falling downwards again. Further the jobs sector which had gained in June has also gone down, and this is not a good sign for the US citizens. Lastly I’m not sure how will Trump be able to accelerate the economy by September, as he had claimed that by September US economy will be back on track.

Sources:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-11/five-real-time-charts-show-signs-economic-recovery-is-faltering

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/06/trump-recovery-summer-304384

Trump can say whatever he want, but as of now I am skeptical whether there would be a rebound in the economy by September. A rebound may only occur if the pandemic can be contained. And under current circumstances, it is impossible to contain the pandemic unless a vaccine is made available. And all that is going to take a long time. And let's not forget the fact that the US federal debt is at a historical peak. That further reduces Trump's maneuvering space.

Shasha80

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I have a different opinion from the article in the opening post, I am not sure that US economy will recover quickly. That the US is still
a country with the highest spread of COVID-19. The number of businesses closed in the US is very large, and unemployment is high.
And state spending so much money on health equipment and state must help the poor and starving population. The US economy is in
a situation which is very bad, so in my opinion it must takes several years for recovery.

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