I do wonder what will happen if hospitals start getting overcrowded though.
Then the Italian scenario is inevitable, people who could have been saved were literally dying in the hallways and waiting rooms because there were not enough respirators to give them a chance to fight for their lives. But I hope that will not happen, because the pandemic has been going on for almost 3 months and the production of protective equipment and respirators is at the highest possible level around the world.
We are far better prepared from a healthcare perspective for a second wave, that much is true. This is for multiple reasons. First of all, Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) production has ramped up massively over the last few months - everything from gowns and gloves to respiratory masks and body suits. My hospital now has a significant stockpile of these, with more readily available as required. Secondly, none of the preparatory work needs to be done again. Everything from making sure every member of staff is tested to see which size of respiratory mask fits them best, to expanding ICU in to adjacent areas and redesigning rotas to meet the increased capacity. We can "hit the ground running" with a second wave, so to speak. Thirdly, we know more about the virus. We know the course it takes and we know the complications it causes. We are starting to get good data about which drugs and medications are and are not effective.
The limiting factor from a healthcare point of view for the second wave I think will no longer be how many ventilators there are - as you say, production has ramped up massively over the last few months. The limiting factor is going to be the availability of staff with the knowledge and training to operate a ventilator. The virus causes a condition know as ARDS - acute respiratory distress syndrome. Incorrect use of a ventilator at the best of times can be life threatening, but with ARDS the lungs are so fragile that ventilatory parameters have to be very carefully controlled.
Coincide all of that with the next flu season, which already puts a huge strain on intensive care resources, and even with the increased numbers of ventilators it won't take a huge number of new cases to saturate hospital capacity like we saw in Italy. If people are being denied life saving treatments and dying in the corridors and on the floor, I can't see how new lockdown restrictions wouldn't be implemented. Whether or not people actually stick to them is another thing altogether, though.
If we do hit that scenario, the economy is going to take another beating. As we've said above, the Fed are quickly running out of options to keep the economy afloat. Print more money? Negative interest rates? Helicopter money? All we are seeing at the moment is a small rebound as lockdown restrictions are eased. We definitely can't call this economic recovery yet, and although obviously I hope that recovery is swift and the concerns about a second wave are unfounded, the worst may yet be to come.