Topic: Is the US economy suddenly recovering? - page 5. (Read 1079 times)

There is a growing consensus the protests did not cause the recent spike in infections:


https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/protests-in-seattle-and-elsewhere-dont-appear-to-be-driving-virus-surge-researchers-say/
https://time.com/5861633/protests-coronavirus/

I think it's more about the "lockdown fatigue" o_e_l_e_o mentions. Younger people are comprising a growing share of new cases, suggesting they are probably socializing more and not complying with distancing and mask standards. Plus, economic reopening and all that. I'm sure the protests played a role too though.

In any case, state governments seem pretty dead set against re-implementing full lockdowns. I do wonder what will happen if hospitals start getting overcrowded though.

In my opinion, these charts are not enough to cover the big picture which is that majority of the world will probably take a couple of years at the very least to recover from a crisis of such epic proportions.

The big point that many seem to forget is that the virus is still active currently and there is no vaccine available yet which means an economy that looks like it's recovering could go to hell just like that at any moment thanks to COVID.

If we only look at the statistics then to someone who observes it from a distance it may seem so. But even within the EU itself, things looked pretty chaotic at first, because each country had some ideas of its own and it took a month to agree on some things. The situation is now getting worse in some countries that have had 0 new cases in 2-3 weeks and now have 50-100 new cases a day again. This is the price that must be paid if the borders are opened and people can move freely - only two weeks after the incubation period is over, we return to the old state.

But at least as far as the EU is concerned, there is currently no talk of re-locking, but moving in the direction of acting locally in places where the virus appears. What was also found was that the virus had weakened because most of the infected have very mild symptoms and few end up in the hospital at all. This is most likely due to the very high temperatures currently in the EU, which in some ways weakens the strength of the virus.


My opinion is that the virus has spread more than it should in the USA because of the protests that took place just at an inconvenient time. So many people in everyday interaction is nothing but a time bomb that unfortunately exploded, the results are more than visible. In Europe, everything went to hell when the Champions League match was played in Milan (Atalanta-Valencia, February 20) in front of 40 000 spectators, which had catastrophic consequences for Italy and Spain, but also for the whole of Europe.

I just hope that the announced vaccine will be effective (AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine to be shared across Europe, says France), and I see they mention in some other newspaper articles that the USA will receive a sufficient amount of vaccine for its needs.

If we look at the indexes of the top stocks, we will be able to confirm that the US economy is recovering but the reality is not like that. The US government provided people with subsidies but most people used the money to buy stocks. That's why US stocks are growing but their real economy is still in ruins. in the future we will see the consequences of covid 19 left and will witness a strong dump once again. This year of 2020 is still a bad year for the United States and I see no opportunity for growth.

Printing money however is a fake way to show that an economy is recovering.
In long term this is going to put the US economy in bigger economic crisis due to the rise of inflation.

It seems so at the moment, but it's too early to say this for sure.

Compare the graph you posted with the graph I posted on the previous page. Peak new confirmed cases for the US was near the start of April. Peak deaths was mid to late April. There is a lag of 2 to 3 weeks between new cases and mortality rates. The graph you posted ends on June 22nd. 2 to 3 weeks before that, in early June, was the lowest number of daily new cases we have seen in the US since this all began. Now that cases are spiking again, it will be mid to late July before the mortality figure reflect this.

Given the number of countries we have seen that have opened up and then had to reimpose lockdown restrictions, I would say a second wave is almost inevitable at this point. The big concern at the moment for healthcare systems is that for the Northern Hemisphere the second wave could coincide with flu season.

Yeah, thankfully I live in an area which hasn't been that badly hit at all, and has generally had very sensible policies coming from local government and healthcare providers. As you say, what I see locally is good, but much of the country and the world is not in such a good situation.

The market is front running an actual economic recovery. That doesn't mean one is imminent, it just means investors are optimistic. They also know that worst comes to worst, the Fed will bail out the market and keep blood out of the streets.


Aren't we all?

As a contrarian trader, I'm just nervous when I see lots of optimism. In terms of job losses, the current situation blows 2008 out of the water. It will take years to recover those jobs. If stock markets continue to new ATHs despite high double digit unemployment, it'll show how truly perverted the markets have become from central bank intervention.

I think, that yes. FED just printed money and everyone gets happy, except people whose money are getting less and less valuable. That's why people should spend their money on something which is not having so big inflation or just buy some things.

Depends what you mean incredible...in the number of infectious cases, yeah Europe has done better, when it comes to deaths...nope.
The US with all the drama is still below France, Italy , Spain and the Uk, with Belgium in another league of its own.
If we go deeper and we compare the number of deaths per confirmed cases, it's even worse for Western Europe.

For example, France vs Us, per mil population.
Infection:
2,525  vs 8,242   France is better. 4.x
Deaths:
457    vs  393   US is better  1.11
Deaths per infection:
1/5     vs 1/20   US is better by 4x

The problem is what happens next...
We in Europe have somewhat managed to contain the virus, but we can't do this forever, sooner or later other cases will appear, and then others, you can't lock the whole continent.
At which point more people will get infected, another wave of infection and unfortunately deaths.
What would be interesting to know would be, if possible, the number of deaths per total infected people, a number no-one knows and it's just approximation, 5%-20% in some cases even 50%.
If the US has a higher rate like 30% of the population has come in contact with the virus it means the numbers of deaths will just triple if it's only 10%, it means 10x.

Just because you have saved your country now doesn't mean you can keep it locked forever and with this number of cases all over the world sooner or later even the countries that claim they've contained it will give up, and when this happens it will be just like the reverse of the Columbian exchange.

Back to the economy, I have a feeling it's going to be not so bad as some doomsday lovers want it to be nor it will recover in a flash, as I said in other threads before, right now I have a feeling it's going to be way less dramatic than the 2007 crisis. The car industry is back at 100%, so are all the businesses related to, agriculture didn't take a hit at all, the constructions are back, what is left is tourism but I think this will pick up also in 3-4 months. Of course, time will tell but I'm optimistic about what I'm seeing in my town and around me.

The government has not been coherent with situations surrounding the invisible enemy in the person of Covid-19. Easing the lockdown isn't the solution to the problem entirely.Are there measures put in places by the people and the government to ensure social distancing is maintained to a certain stage? I know we still have a long battle with the Covid-19.

Some economies will recover faster than others it is simple ideology behind strategic planners in the economy sector of the fast rising economies.

Since the United States lifted the lockdown and everything is back to normal businesses have reopened and the impact of the virus in their country may have been much under control. But it is a long time to recover from the damage done to the country's economy by the virus Since the US has started everything it will return to normal more easily than other countries.

From the analysis, necessary steps has been taking in time to minimize the deep effect by the pandemic. Traveling well controlled, hotel services dropped, trading was also controlled and people cooperated and complied. Though the graph showed economy has not been productive but when those who are managing the economy are secured the economy will recover faster as they resume

The mortality curve of corona appears to be on the decline ^. Infections are rising while lethality appears to significantly decrease.

The media is trying to hype a second deadly wave of the virus. Somewhere between those conflicting paradigms is where we may determine whether a quick recovery is on the way. If the lethality of the virus continues to diminish, eventually there will be no need to quarantine or close businesses. Life will return to some semblance of normality. As near to it as we might get.

The US stock market would seem to indicate a recovery may be imminent. Equity market whale traders would be expected to have the best and most accurate information on the topic. I hope the US stock markets near recovery indicates the worst of the crisis is passed. The only thing casting doubt on the accuracy of market recovery is the potential of the federal reserve injecting liquidity to artificially prop markets up above where they should be.

Personally, I'm hoping for a quick recovery. Followed by greater decentralization of supply lines, trade and everything else which might help to prevent a disaster like this in the future.

Not only US had suffered but the rest of the countries are totally affected by covid 19 pandemic. But since most of the lockdows are already lifted, people are starting going out and those who have still jobs to return are already working again. I am expecting this already that US economy will still recover but not as quick like this. Country might not even recover even a year after but i'm glad that things are starting to go back to its new normal.

Completely agree. That article is grasping at straws. There was pent up demand in the real estate market after the lockdowns restricted the spring buying season. I'm not sure that mortgage applications recovering to previous levels says a whole lot about the big picture anyway.

Not much actual economic data here. I have a feeling Q2 numbers (company earnings, retail sales, unemployment) coming out next month will put a damper on some of this optimism.

All the Fed interventions are widening the chasm between the stock market and the actual economy. May unemployment at 16.3%, U-6 unemployment (adds discouraged and marginally attached workers, and those working part-time for economic reasons) almost hit 25%. The window to apply for PPP loans (the government program paying companies to keep workers on the payrolls) ends today, and the extended unemployment benefits are set to expire in July. Senate Republicans have indicated that provision won't be extended, at least at current levels.

Given that the virus seems to be getting worse across the country and businesses are already running at limited capacity, a swift recovery to pre-pandemic productivity and employment levels seems nearly impossible now. 15-20 million jobs are not going to be created overnight. And as stimulus provisions begin winding down, we may begin seeing more business failures that were previously being delayed by band-aids measures.

I agree with you.
All of us had suffered big losses and even though US has a lot of resources but I can't think they can recover shortly. In fact, many experts say that the global economic status will be getting worse if the situation won't start to flatten. The more this virus spreads, the more it prolongs the recovery of the economy. It surely US will recover sooner (the same with the others) but not this time and not a good idea for them to fully resume business operations and lifestyle in order to make a huge recovery otherwise the crisis will still continue and it getting worse in their place.

In my country, after the government eased the lockdown to an extent where people could go out, markets and businesses could open and some other sectors, it passed a wrong message to our citizens that things are totally back to normal and the economy recovering, but after some weeks now, positive cases of Covid-19 increased and the government are forced again to shut down the states that are affected the most.

Imo it'll be like this for some time, there is prolly no economic recovery in sight at the moment, even in the US. In the long run some countries will recover faster than others, as they have always had a better economy and America is one of those countries, but for now with all the the talk of rising unemployment and recession, they still have a long way to go.

It is not "suddenly recovering", it is just getting back outside which means there will be return obviously. Nobody could compare an economical situation where people stay at home for months to a situation where people are finally going outside.

Even though economy still sucks and even though there are still 13% unemployed numbers, even though many small business went out of business, and even though there are tons of other horrible stuff, the statistics will show an improvement only due to the fact that people are back outside and spending money again. This is why I think it is quite important to know the difference between "unrealistically horrible" to " very bad", when you see an improvement from one to another it may look like recovery but it is in fact not a recovery but an obvious change.

I don't think so, there are countries which are also having a hard time recovering from economic crisis. Although US is a first world country, as there are also a huge cases in their territory, they will probably have a much harder economic recovery. Even China can't eliminate the virus in their country but their economy is stable, it is just because their products are still circulating globally.

US can do it, but I don't think that this is the time where they can recover their economy. Their government has a lot of sectors that should prioritize including the health sector, agricultural and especially the economy sector. If they want to recover from economic crisis, they should make a plan about opening some business safely.

Short Answer: No

1.48 Million More Americans Applied for Unemployment Benefits Last Week

The ones given by the article is not really the major factors to consider that the economy is recovering it's not even how to spot if the economy is rising or not. From what I know the US has now a growing debt because of the pandemic as well as the massive protests happening US as of right now is a lot of things but one of it isn't really about their economy having a jump start at all.