Topic: It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 12. (Read 14627 times)

It would be a good floor for us miners.


A tiny diff drop of -.5% and a 11111.11 price floor for August 10th jump would be very helpful.

My 1.7ph is on line again. brownouts ended.

1700 x 0.0896 = 152.32 a day

2 weeks ago

1700 x 0.0675 = 114.75 a day

We need more upwards price movement.

lets get to $12345.67  by august 15th.

Just saw a BTC price of $11,111.12 on Coinbase. This was just off by $.01 from an earlier comment by Phil. Made me smile so I thought I would mention it here.

I think the bitmain issue is good for price.

If we can bounce back to 11400. I think we will go past 12,000

Or settle back to 9500

So 9500 to 12,000.

I am not a price picker. But the jump over 11,111 was welcome to see.

2.78% difficulty drop along with 20% price increase is something I will take with absolute pleasure.  

However, i still wouldn't fomo just yet, we are back below 11k which could actually be just a minor correction, I still think that we MUST close this weekly candle above $10500 for us not to dip below current prices again, as far as difficulty goes, I highly doubt we see crazy jumps in the near future, remember that the largest supplier of mining gears is out-of-stock and facing some real internal issues, old gears alone won't be able to make any crazy jumps, I think if price goes up, difficulty will take a much longer time to catch up, and that is paradise for miners.

We did -2.87

diff moved from 17.34 down to 16.84

price went from 9237 on July  to 11408 now 11,222

11,408 is fucking impressive

some sell off got triggered and we dropped to 11,222

July and August could be very interesting.

All my gear just became more valuable.



I wonder if I am going to have to sell some coin soon.

A 'floor' of above $11k from now till the end of time is what I need to 'not worry about such much' from now on..that is my 'safe' place for price.

hey, so I'm 'girly' about my HODL/HOARD... but that would be my 'always' comfort zone as far as price...anything under that and I'm still bit 'miffed' or course it is an arbritray amount and 'fencepost' in my mind...but when above $11k for obvious math reasons most should be able to figure out..anything above $11K till the end of time, compared to when I started with BTC in 2013..would be my 'happy place indeed!:

(ah, daydreaming is nice....)

Brad

---

At $18,500 BTC say, I'd 'dump' all my altcoins for safety reasons..due to past 'corrections' on such BTC pumps/jumps..now what I do with such... spend the Altcoin money on dubious women of low morals or trips or fast cars or bitcoin I'm not sure..but from 'daydream' point of view at an $18,500 BTC price, I would not be 'sweating' the BTC HOARD/HODL situation much anymore..in that is well above my $11,000 'happy place'

Again....back to daydream of this pump until BTC 'you merciless' bitch dumps back to $9k or something to bust my balls'. Anyway, I celebrate while I can. The ways of BTC/Crypto are mysterious to me! So I take my 'happiness' of pumps while I can to store against 'dumps' ..but maybe, just maybe, $10,000 is the new floor that BTC will never go under again. (I know, tis, stupid ..but be still my heart!....rainbows/unicorn farts and fairy-dust aside!)

Brad

what would really be interesting would be a tremendous price jump.

18500 comes to mind this would bring back a lot of old gear.

we could move to 20t diff in a flash.

barring a crazed jump like that. if we stay at 10500 to 11111 next jump will be very interesting.

I would think we would have an ath of 18.0t

or maybe something weird happens and we drop 5% even though we maintain the 10500 to 11111 number.

My breakout number is $11,000 BTC and I'll be a very, very happy man! (will not take much to figure out why..this $$$$ is approprate in HODL mode!)

Although $11,111.11 is much nicer!

So were expecting just about a 6% drop half way through the current epoch, and now in just 14 blocks we will have a 2.5% drop, so in other words we claimed up 3% after a massive 18% increase in price, which means if price didn't climb so fast we would be most likely have gotten more than 6% drop, my previous assumptions that we continue to go go lower in diff or stay flat was based on the fact that price wouldn't be going any higher, I still think that current prices of $10800 won't change the equation much, but if we close this week above $10500 chances are we go to $13900 in no time, and from there many things will change, even old obsolete gears will be able to come back online.

19 blocks to go.

now -2.6%


10,842

I would love to see it break 11111.11

China is flooding and US is having a heat wave. Portland is hot af for us as well.

And the diff is going to be negative!


So 10,200 and -3% pretty good for a Monday morning.

The only negative thing is my entire 1.7ph has been offline since last Friday
due to the heatwave in our area.

Zoomed right on past $10K to $10280 at this time. It will be interesting to see if that will hold or if the "magical" $10K price motivates folks to sell.

Look like it is exactly as described by me.

we peaked at 102 blocks behind around -8%

we have gone to 66 blocks behind around -3%

That gain of 36 blocks has all been done against 9800-10000 a coin blocks.

https://diff.cryptothis.com/

we dropped more since I typed this.

Interesting strategy. I never considered the ramifications of over/under clocking at scale at the network side.

Great notes for LP organizational strategy.

Timing and some luck.

 If I was a huge farm with custom s19pros or s17pros I could manipulate hash rate with ease.

I have lots of s17 pros I set them to low 42th or 4.2eh cause I have lots

I could run them at 57th or  5.7eh this means I can change 1.5eh up or down in a few minutes.

If I am bitmain and have s19pros  I could do maybe 70th on low and 105th on high

say  7eh to 10.5eh

So I could shift 3.5eh on a whim.

I can effectively alter the entire network by shifting my gear settings.

Now if I dropped my settings for 12 days because price was dropping to 9000 or 9100
and now price jumped to 10000 with only 2 days left I could bump to 10.5eh and earn 10000 dollar coins vs 9100 dollar coins

Plus the diff ends up negative on the 2 week jump.

Toss in some luck too ing some others jumping in on the price jump and boom a nice high spike.

Since bitmain is fully and entirely unregulated no one know the extent of bitdeer size.

 I have read articles that the eco of bitmain claimed to have as much as 10% of the network.
Since he did not clarify if that is bitmain's private miners or bitdeer.  most likely bitmain has far more then full control of 10% of the hash power in the world.

  Always remember bitdeer  sells s17 and s19 contracts.  No auditors no evidence of what they use a full and complete lack of transparency. So I suspect bitmain can move 5eh to10eh up and down on any given day. Since no one has ever shown anything of their capabilities no one can prove this guess to be wrong.

I also think many of us hold old gear and can add on when the time is correct.

That is why the spike happened. Some is also luck.

Of course no proof of my guess only that it would be easy to do.

It could all be luck. But since my explanation has never been disproven and bitmain will never effort to do so. My guess is a mix of luck, bitmain/bitdeer, and the rest of the miners.

Any thoughts on the huge spike yesterday?

171.73 EH at 640727

Yeah I am seeing a reverse action which I think is due to the shitton plus of 60 watt to 100 watt gear that lays idle.

Okay I am no large or even medium but I have 60 pieces of s9's and l3+ sitting.
I can try to dump them or  let them sit just in case.

I have the room for them and could store them for years. Part out fans whatever.
I am not the only guy like this citronick is talking about his 30th inn's and others are in the same boat.

So we have a lot of forces in play here.

What is my cost of letting 60 pieces sit on a shelf at best I sell them all for 1500-2000 usa.

Involves work and labor to do so.

Everything is paid off. I have physical room to store them.
I can sit and spec with them.

If coins go up just enough I can mod them all (23 s9s) into 2 board braiins  space heaters. I sell them at a bit of a premium since they are really quiet and can use under 400 watts and as high as 800 watts

If coins go up a lot I can mine with them.
I would think if coins were to go to 15k a ton of gear goes on line just like that.

Which jumps the diff which I think drags down price a bit.

The gear glut will not leave for a long time.  So when we go up in price then up in diff then price drops a bit.

This reminds me when cpus coins got flood by ASICs excess hash hurt pricing.

I see this cycle really taking a long time to play out unless we moon to 30k or more.

Would be cool if it happened.

As I finally am prepped for mooning to happen. I do not expect it to happen.

The reason why gear glut will stick around is simple.

s9's can do 80watts a th
m10s can do 60watts a th
m20s can do 50 watts a th

the best gear is 30 watts a th

80/30 = 2.66 to 1 ratio

it is easy to over come with cheap or next to free power.

my 30 s9's at 1 cent power =   easily beat 4 s19 pros at 3 cent power

my 30 s9's at 1.5 cent power are very competitive with 4 s19 pros at 3 cent power.

whatsminer m10s at 1.5 cent power beat s19 pros at 3 cent power.
whatsminer m10s  at 2 cent power are competitive with s19 pros at 3 cent power.

What phil said

sure

at current price of  9950 usd a coin

1 th earns 0.0764 cents at viabtc
30 th earns $2.29 usd a day

2kwatt an hour is 48 kwatt a day make it 50 or $3.00

So if your gear is 2kwatts it loses 70cents a day at price of 9950

bump to 15,000

15,000/9,950 = 1.5 rounded up a bit

1.5 x 2.29 = $3.43 usd a day

so if diff is 17.0 and price is 15,000 it makes money assuming your gear burns 50kwatts a day.

I would argue BTC at 11k is sustainable long term

Not sure if it could stay over 15k long term.