Topic: It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 7. (Read 14620 times)

We are going back to July's difficulty level, which was a few months into the rainy season in China, this could suggest that there hasn't been many S19/S19 pros out there, and the main cause for the recent difficulty spikes was the old gears coming back online in China, I think that is accountable for at least 50% of the difficulty increments, anyway 13% drop is NO joke.


Some would argue that the opposite is correct because more profit = less pressure on miners = fewer coins being sold, my take on this is a bit neutral because after all, newly mined coins are really nothing but a small percentage of the circulation supply, looking at the daily trade volume of BTC gives you a clearer vision on what I am trying to explain.

We dropped some more.


a diff drop from 19.997 to 17.473  is really big

https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate

hashrate dropped from 146 eh on oct 17 to  130 eh on oct 26

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#3m

hashrate dropped from 157 eh on oct 17 to 101 eh on oct 28.

not sure why the hashrate charts vary that much.  As the truth seems to be somewhat inbetween those numbers.

To bull run guys hashrate drops like these tend to drag prices downward. As they allow a miner to sell more coin since they will earn more coin.

The profitability margin in mining is very tiny, 5% in either direction makes all the difference between winning and losing, thousands of mining gears shut-down with a tiny increase in difficulty because their gears become no longer profitable.

One more thing is that a difficulty drop of 5% isn't just 5% more profit, it could be a lot more than that, and here is the math the most people aren't aware of:

Let's take the average miner who pays 5 cents per Khw and see how the next 10% drop in difficulty will make him A LOT more profitable.

Currently, T17 makes  $4.53, pays $3.02 for power and NET profit is $1.51

With a 10% drop (ignoring price factor since it can go either way) it will make $4.98, pays the same $3.02 for power, and nets $1.96 in profit which isn't just 10% more profit by any means, it's almost 30% more net profit ($1.51 vs 1.96$)

So a -5% in difficulty isn't just 5% more BTC and it gets even better for the guys who pay 6-7 cents, even much better for those who have less efficient gears than the T17.

Yeah home mining btc is a lost thing.

Back in 2012. I had 22gh on gpus mining btc this would only happen on overclock.

22gh sounds like a joke now but at the time the network was 22th.  So 1/1000 of the entire network of btc was in my garage  .  about 7kwatts an hour

at the current time the net work is 146,000,000th

so 146,000,000/1000 = 146,000th that is 2920 s17 units burning 5840 kwatts. it could hardly fit in a 24 by 20 foot garage

right now hash has dropped to 130,000,000th due to end of rainy season and price dropped a bit to 13,132 due to miners like myself  and bigger converting btc to usd.

I made a decision to cash in some btc the last 10 days
4743 usd for  btc in cash which has gone towards various things like buying gear and repairs from AUG to OCT

I Still held some back and of course I am earning coin every day as I type this.

yeah i always like the hum of computers, did seti and folding for years. so mining corn was a natural thing.

but now? i have one 8 slot mining board with some gpu and fpga gear that mines eth at the moment. other times, some shitcoin or another. autoconvert pools (yes im that lazy) turn it into corn. my mining may not secure the bitcoin network but selling crap for corn on a regular basis (should) help the price.

any worthwhile asic btc miner is far too loud for home use. i started mining as a hobby, kinda want to keep it that way.

Miners have to micro manage.

Forget all costs except power.  Power is paid in cash not BTC.

Monthly bills are common

So a 2 week difficulty is about 1/2 of your bill time.

Next jump is -10% and it lasts for 14 or even as much as 16 days if it is a big drop.
Since we know that rainy season prices ended for power in China the jump after this one will be -3 to +3 (estimate)

I know 28-32 days of good difficulty are coming.  I can micromanage those days. I can turn an almost certain profit for that time period.
In my case I am a 4 man team with a small team. On great months we make 8000 a month on shit months we make 2000 a month.

That is usd profit. Last month we made 2600 usd.
The projected profit based on difficulty will be 1.1 x 1.03 = 1.133 x 1 higher than last month.

This allows me a cash out choice of 345 worth of coin into fiat

2600 x 1.113 = 2945

2945-2600 = 345   and be cashed and we can still hodl the same 2600 usd worth of coin we held last month.

What kills miners is over expanding and not hodling some of the profit.

I always need to study my:

cash
coins
gpus
asics
debt

vs the diff the next 2 diff and the current price along with 20% lower price and 20% higher price.

This lets me know if I need to sell some coin buy some gear sell some gear.

Look at a model with 8k a month for 12 months = 96k
Look at a model with 2k a month for 12 months = 24k

play with debt number.
play with diff number.

We have some time had 6 months of flat diff = good time to expand your mining gear.

Concededly, I am NOT mining, so I do not have the same kinds of "hands on" and personal experience as you guys, yet I am having some troubles understanding the degree to which any kind of meaningful changes in mining difficulty are taking place.  When I look at the difficulty measurements, I mostly see minor fluctuations, especially if such measurements are made over each of the adjustment periods.

https://btc.com/stats/diff

So, currently, the difficulty estimator is showing that the next adjustment of difficulty is currently projected to be down about 5.91% in 5 days and 8 hours.... and I know that those projections can end up changing, too.. but even if such downward difficulty projection plays out, it still keeps difficulty higher than it was 4 adjustments back - on 9/7.

From a non-miner perspective, the adjustments to difficulty do not seem to be very great, significant or material, even if miners are reporting on the ground that these kinds of adjustments have a lot of meaningful impact on their own profitability - coupled with short-term UPpity BTC price moves?

I should have blown some 'dubious' litecoin back in the day for solar arrangement like you did Philipma1957....my 8c arrangement with a friend at data hall. 8c kWh is just not gonna cut it for any POW mining. Indeed I don't see any ASIC or POW miner of any algo flavor working until maybe, Fall 2021.

Not sure what I'd have to have to make 8c kWh work for a Bitcoin price, even if I got a new, largest, Bitcoin miner today on the doorstep...but I would think I'd need about $18k Bitcoin price to even look into the possibility. Currently selling crap out of attic on ebay to convert to BTC dust...it sucks... but makes a lot more sense than a POW miner. I miss mining, I was such a cute newbie miner full of hope, back in the day. Miss the fun. Miss all them pretty coins at 50/25/12.5 per block. I mean 6.25 per Bitcoin block, yech!

Brad

Yeah I can sell a bit today and hedge if it crashes .
What is Nice is if it goes up I also do okay.
Since I earn more which makes up for the sale.

I can't complain, this means we have about 8 weeks of good profitability regardless of what the price might or might not do, this should make up a bit for all the losses which many of us have been facing with the 17 series gears. .

Current difficulty status


BTC price is making new highs, currently at $13777, which is great, if we break that 14k level, we should head straight to 16k, with difficulty dropping >10% is just too good to be true as Phil said.

I think the majority of the first S19 batches are already online and have been for a month or so. I could be wrong, but I don't think there will be any more coming online till January now.

I agree, this might make me OC some units again that I downclocked for efficiency. Price-wise, I expect it to rise again before end of year, but not further than 15k.

A solid drop over 10%

and prices at 13400

this is almost too good to be true.

Things are getting even better


I wanted to confirm the theory of the ending of the rainy season in China from a different point, and I can now tell you with confidence that we have thousands of S9s going offline, the price of those used miners in China has dropped quite a bit since the past week, which means a good number of mining gears "suddenly" got into the supply circulation of used miners in China.

The good news: Price is still at the 13k level, this epoch will most likely be negative. The bad news: Many S19s and S19 pros will be delivered soon (need more information regarding this.

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-7%. and coins at 13k would be nice for mining

time will tell.

Even though we went up about 15% in price, the difficulty is still dropping, which suggest that those thousands of S9s that were running on hydropower in China have actually left (at least a large portion of them), I am pretty confident that we will have a drop in difficulty for this epoch even if the price was to shoot to $15,000, what happens in the following epoch will, of course, be different depending on the price.


I wouldn't really worry about 55-60 wat/the gears, they are a drop in the ocean, the big player is "S9", the moment they become profitable at 4-6 cents again, a huge chunk of them will come back online to boost the difficulty.

well at 12000 price and  a diff drop of 5%

the 55-60 watt gear like the A1066 look okay.

we are at -8% and 12,900

Good trend on tx fees, and market is up. Wonder how much older gear and/or higher kwh will come online if this keeps up.

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So far a very solid drop. 12% this is nice.

By markets I meant the stock market, followed by Btc. Once BTC clears 15k then the cycle of positive feedback loop will begin. Add fears of inflation down the road and thats more than enough for the next rally, which is due.