It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 16.

philipma1957

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yeah a hard push the last day and we are now at

Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com

Latest Block:   637028 (31 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   99.9948% (1989 / 1989.10 expected, 0.1 behind)
Current Difficulty:   15784744305477.41
Next Difficulty:   between 15785124249565 and 15785124317729
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.0024% and +0.0024%
Previous Retarget:   June 16, 2020 at 12:49 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 12:50 PM (in 0d 4h 30m 0s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 12:50 PM (in 0d 4h 30m 0s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 1m 3s and 14d 0h 1m 3s

maybe we get 0% Roll Eyes

Biffa

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Looking more like an increase Angry

mikeywith

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Quote from: philipma1957 on June 25, 2020, 06:57:27 PM

So I am in a mine and hold mode. We can do this a long time

With the current mining gear prices, this is the best thing to do, most experienced miners have already positioned themselves pre-halving to stay profitble post-halving, what I do with mining profit now is basically day trading it trying to increase it while keeping the risk as minimal as I can, the initial plan was to slowly add M21s gears but because of Bitmain's internal issues, prices have increased a lot which makes buying gears at current prices a terrible idea, so I might just accumulate and when the right time comes I'd go lump-sump on adding mining gears instead of gradually accruing them, this, of course, that depends on the price of those gears for the next a few months.

Meanwhile, this is what we have

Quote

Current Pace: 99.1908% (1463 / 1474.93 expected, 11.93 behind)
Next Difficulty Change: between -0.7990% and -0.7393%

3 days to go, and looks like <1% drop in difficulty.

philipma1957

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I cut out all my high watt per th gear.

the 1.7 ph gear is under 50 watts a th.

the 1gh of ltc is only 1.5 Kwatts.

At the moment we make $90 usd a day profit my share is $22.50 a day but and this is big it is all paid for.

Making only $22.50 a day means don't buy gear just hold the coins.

So I am in a mine and hold mode. We can do this a long time

We were making $280 a day.

My share was $140 As I had purchased most of the gear for a while I collected 1/2 the profits.

But once gear was fully paid I went back to 1/4 the profits.

So to be honest it is very easy to run but I would like to earn more then I am.

For me to get a m20s at 1500 I get about 4 a day profit from it. that is around a 375 day pay off.

Reality is we would give me 1/2. 90. which is 45 a day and my 1500 laid out. It would be paid off in 34 days.

1 would be mine and 1/2 would be buy solar.

It almost makes sense to get it at 1500. but it would be a no brainer at 1200. I am talking shipping and tax included.

I don't like to wait for gear purchases. But with every thing happening I think I need to do this. Just mine and hold.

Next jump should be -2%. which means we may clear 92 a day vs 90.

mikeywith

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Quote from: minefarmbuy on June 24, 2020, 10:02:25 AM

MicroBT has a reasonable amount of inventory available to ship now so I wouldn't expect any large diff drops either.

The current prices on Microbt gears are very high, the M30S++ 110th sells for $3,400 and does 31w/th, on the other hand, the last batch of S19 pro went for $2,407 and does 29.5w/th (slightly more efficient) and $1000 cheaper and ships only month later, with free power you need 4 months to ROI the price difference, not very encouraging if you ask me.

When Bitmain went out of stock due to their internal issues, MicroBt raised its gear prices, M21s was about $600 and now it's 800$ that's 33% increment, mind you profitability has gone lower than before so the price increment is simply due to the fact that Bitmain went out of stock and looks like MicroBT don't have enough gears to handle the market alone at those prices so the easiest thing to do was to boost prices.

I hope Bitmain rivals take this chance to gain more popularity and to improve, this is a huge opportunity for them that might not repeat itself in years to come.

alh

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Well over halfway through the current epoch, witch a SMALL decline in difficulty predicted.

BTC price certainly isn't going to push difficulty: $9300/BTC

minefarmbuy

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We are not retail.

MicroBT has a reasonable amount of inventory available to ship now so I wouldn't expect any large diff drops either. 17 would be pretty impressive short term but Oct seems reasonable to hit that number especially if bitmain situation gets sorted out.

philipma1957

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Works for me no gear ships 🚢 til october and diff floats in the 14-17 range.

mikeywith

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Looks like we are going to have a small relief in difficulty.

Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com

Current Pace:   96.0957% (863 / 898.06 expected, 35.06 behind)
Current Difficulty:   15784744305477.41
Next Difficulty:   between 15171030193302 and 15366455052471
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.8880% and -2.6500%

I don't think we will have any major drops anymore, but not going up in itself is overall good for us miners, what is considered to be bad news coming in from Bitmain seems like good news to everyone else who doesn't have a pending order from Bitmain, Zhan who now controls the supply warehouses of Bitmain has paused all shipping operations, because all payments are controlled by Jihan Wu, so the former has the gears in control and the latter has ownership of funds, and we all know how complicated the Chinese law is, so it might be a good while before Bitmain ships anything which would help with sustaining difficulty adjustments with either small drops or flat numbers for a few coming adjustments.

philipma1957

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Yeah. So like me but I am on a small scale I have 28 s9's. well after making 10 into heaters I have 18 s9's

Most are running on lowest setting.
My better gear runs on higher settings.

I can shift quick. 1.2ph to 1.4ph to 1.0ph

If I want to expand We could toss all the paid off gear and get better gear but I don't need to do so.

I am thinking of getting some gear from pangolinminer.com. maybe a few m20s

So it looks like a lot of marginal gear was shut down first few days of the jump.

So maybe. a lot of people are doing what I am doing. I dropped mine down to 1.2. from 1.4. and if we go -10% on diff I will bounce from 1.2 back to 1.4

I will play this game all the way to Christmas as it will be turning a profit.

mikeywith

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Quote from: DaveF on June 16, 2020, 07:14:44 PM

Guess what some of my racks have in them. Grin

fish tank bulb? Grin

Quote from: DaveF on June 16, 2020, 07:14:44 PM

So how many people out there are like me? More concerned with what I can use more then how efficient they are. Buying 1 or 2 gens out like I do totally changes the pricing dynamic too. That is what is keeping a lot of small miners running. How much does that add to the hashrate worldwide? 1EH? More?

I have to agree to phill, I believe "we" make more than a quarter of the total hashrate, although these "free" limitations differ form a place to another, for an example, I have a small farm of 30kw, I don't pay for power there, but I pay a small amount of money in a form of rent.

So I can run about 25* S9s and that will be about 350th in total, but I don't go that route with this farm anymore, so I mix T17,S17pro,S17+, M21s and A few S9s to maximize the hashrate and to also keep the initial investment as low as possible.

In another place, I have access to a 300KW transformer, that's a lot of power so we are filling it with mainly S9s and a few more efficient gears, the reason I chose to add a few efficient gears is merely for testing what to upgrade to next year when S9s start making little to no profit even at 0 power rate, meanwhile, I am leaning towards M21s, if we could squeeze 90 of them at the right price, there will be about 5PH in that farm alone, but this won't and can't be done in a lump sum, luckily there are many people here who would want to buy those S9s at a much better price than probably any other where, so the plan is to slowly get rid of those S9s by year end or early 2021, hopefully by end of 2021 we hit the 5PH mark on that farm with 0 bitmain gears ( can't wait to divorce Bitmain) Grin

I have a few places where I put some miners here and there, one of them is 10kw only, but I don't pay rent or anything like that so the majority are S9, and most of my clients here can be divided into 2 groups

1- small miners who use their garage or an empty room, those have access to almost free power but it's pretty limited, so they usually get mid-range efficiency gears like the 17 series.

2-larger miners who can afford to build farms and buy those expensive 11kv > 220v transformers focus on nothing but the cost per th, everything else is NOISE to them, some are still buying those m3x gears burning 2000w to get a 12th.

The second group is the "scary" one, and they are not limited to where I live, They are almost in every continent, probably Europe and North America have the smallest shares, there are in South America, Africa and plenty of them in Asia, those guys send every rational calculation someone can make to predict their mining rewards in the future to the trash because they mine outside of the game rules.

philipma1957

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Way more then 1eh

if you look at the analysis I do with viabtc 104 of 134 payments range from 0.01 to 0.1 btc which means a lot of miners on viabtc mine in the 250 th to 10ph range.

I suspect that ½ of viabtc is is in the range we speak of viabtc alone is 6.2 eh ½ is 3.1 eh

other pools are like this

my guess is niche miners like you and me and mikeywith are more then 20% of the network.

maybe 40eh worth of the network hash.

My place can give me 200kwatts well 80% so 160k-watts I am around 110k-watt right now I am consolidating and deciding what to do next.

Between the cover-19 the protests and the riots 2020 oh the ½ ing 2020 has been slow.

I am mining and holding more then anything else. I just wait for a moment to pull the trigger again.

DaveF

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Crypto Swap Exchange

I do have "free" power. We pay a flat rate for rack space in the DC and it comes with 20A.
If I have 3 routers pulling 1A each I pay for 20A
If I have 3 routers pulling 1A each and a miner pulling 15A I pay for 20A

Guess what some of my racks have in them. Grin

So with that being said I am more concerned about the power draw of the miners. Many of the newer more powerful & efficient ones are bumping on the limit of what I can safely put in without worrying about what happens if I have to add more routers / switches.

So how many people out there are like me? More concerned with what I can use more then how efficient they are. Buying 1 or 2 gens out like I do totally changes the pricing dynamic too. That is what is keeping a lot of small miners running. How much does that add to the hashrate worldwide? 1EH? More? Less?

Just something to think about.

-Dave

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

we are now at 15.7

ATH was 16.6 IIRC

1th earns 0.00000786 btc a day at viabtc

10th earns 0.00007860 btc a day at viabtc

100th earns 0.0007860 btc a day at viabtc all 'free' power numbers.

so $7.45 a day

a s19 would earn about 7.08 a day with free power costs about 2000 and takes 282 days with diff and price flat to pay off.

no one has 'free' power since gear breaks and travel time and labor all have a cost.

so pretend 1 cent is minimum also use high estimate and say 3.412 kwatts an hour or 82 kwatts a day about 82 cents.

so

s19 makes

6.25 at free power adjusted to 1 penny so pay off is 282 to 320 days
5.43 at 1 cent adjust to 2 cents ................pay off 320 to 368 days
4.61 at 2 cent adjust to 3 cents ................ pay off 368 to 433 days
3.79 at 3 cent adjust to 4 cents ................ pay off 433 to 527 days
2.97 at 4 cent adjust to 5 cents ................ pay off 527 to 673 days
2.15 at 5 cent adjust to 6 cents ................. pay off 673 to 930 days

so if you have 5 cent power s19 looks very shaky.

mikeywith

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Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Current Pace:   114.8406% (1998 / 1739.80 expected, 258.2 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   13732352106018.34
Next Difficulty:   between 15770387238294 and 15770573838797
Next Difficulty Change:   between +14.8411% and +14.8425%

Almost 100% of the difficulty drop post halving (-6% -9.25%) is going to be wiped out in 2 hours, we are going straight back to early May difficulty, price hasn't changed much post halving, so is difficulty (judging by what's going to happen in 2 hours) yet rewards dropped 50%, in plain English this is will be "the final nail in the coffin" for many of those guys who own 60-70w gears and not the best power rate.

Meanwhile, miners with free or super cheap power rates are still adding on cheap gears such as S9s and the like, other miners who positioned themselves pretty well prior to the halving will probably be adding 30-40w/th gears non-stop, so it's a matter of a few months until many of those miners who were counting on the difficulty to save them from the halving realize that mining isn't an easy game.

Interesting and sad times are ahead, and with bitcoin price not making any higher highs, rest assured that no mining operation is safe long run without proper planning.

What to do?

if I were paying 5-6 cents for power, I would start acting right away, it's time to start utilizing the profit from previous months/years and investing it in positioning myself better as far as efficiency is concerned, I would get rid of anything that isn't 45w/th or more efficient.

minefarmbuy

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We are not retail.

I don't see much of a drop coming either. likely another increase but time will tell. Of course after this coming adjustment.

philipma1957

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Yeah the sample I showed a few posts back has 104 of 134 miners in say 333th to 10ph size.

these are good if they have solid power deals.

free which is really 1 cent. since labor and breaking gear ⚙️ cost around 1 cent.

people like me with a spilt the coins deal.

oh coins are 9100 if we crash hard . to 7000 diff will drop but other then that i dont think diff will be dropping much.

mikeywith

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Quote from: vapourminer on June 13, 2020, 05:53:17 AM

sorry if this was already explained upthread. ive tried to keep up but as i said im not too bright. is there a tldr for a brief recap?

I went into detail on how will difficulty keep rising post halving (long term) despite the price, the first obvious reasons are

-gears efficiency : This is very obvious and needs no explanation.

-people who have access to free power: There are more of them than most people think, those can mine with the old cheap gears non-stop thus adding pressure on the difficulty, I put a few real examples in my previous posts a few months ago.

-Newbies: because mining doesn't require a license and experience to start, many people ( call them what you like ) mine at a loss either for the hope of their holdings to go up, tax evasion or whatever reason they see fit ( many of those reasons are terrible) and there are plenty of them, and we see them around more often, some people have a power rate of 15 cents and the buy Bitmain gears for $4000 and they never ROI, but during the time they mine, they help increase the difficulty, and by the time they leave, more of them will come.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Why the jump up?

well question is good. I will merit it.

the ath is 16.5 or 16.6. around 125eh

we may have enough gear ⚙️ to do 19.9 right now. around 160eh.

of course a lot is old s9 and avalon 841.

So we have maybe 45 to 60 eh of swing gear ⚙️

I can move my 1.3 ph to 1.5ph or 1.1 ph in 10 minutes remotely.

when the drop came last jump i boosted our hash to 1.4 ph

in two or three days when we get the jump of 18% I will shut down all the s9s.

my farm is in a warehouse it is 1.5 ph mine and buy solars

.5 ph more is the ware house guys

and 10gh is ltc mine and buy solars.

We occupy 10% of the ware house and we use around 115kwatts

we could do 160kwatts . we do have 300th in s9s. this is swing gear.

we have 22 s17 pro and s17. we can flux them from 44th to 57th

I know lots of small players like me.

I think I know of six mini farms 1-10 ph in NY , NJ.

we can all bump up or down 10-20% on a dime.

I would think there are hundreds of us in USA 🇺🇸. And thousands of us in China 🇨🇳.

The farm is a small part of the warehouse spot. Players can jump up and down 20% easy.

Years ago I did a study of f2pool payouts.

They had hundreds of payouts based on miners with 10 to 50 s9s. say 130 to 850 th.

since i did that when there was less hash.

I do glance at payouts and I can tell you the viabtc pays hundreds of 1.1 ph to 10 ph miners.

give me an hour or two I will show stats that back this up.

1.1 ph pays about .01 btc a day at viabtc
11 ph pays about .10 btc a day at viabtc.

viabtc is 6 percent of the network.

i should be able to show just how many 1.1 to 11 ph miners exsist in the net work. in under an hour from now.

here is a viabtc pool payout

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/tx/f0da0c21bbeadfadf4d414ccf7d23883f72e80be0e1ba4c225c44971bbf6ff64

Code:

2020-06-11 22:26

paid from

1F14hf631skuNpQxkbg24T3yhcGQ5CdjYV
10.00000000 BTC
1gMk6kPchi5BXei1JKC2BbvZkRcGDTs6a
10.00000000 BTC
1MLYhbxKykTYza4aXAvXtyUefhC9ZjppR1
10.00000000 BTC
1buJKUZDiYvdd4Job6mre3nhgTTJ1rad8
10.00000000 BTC

paid to. I listed 140 payments. there are 940 in the transaction

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0.01049103 BTC
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0.01000637 BTC
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0.04007722 BTC
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13UCVTSW2SipRTP8XWa8TTS5U5gz8q9xgm
0.01479937 BTC
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0.00400997 BTC
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0.02626985 BTC
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0.00190627 BTC
3K6QYrpNzjZ3TD1voccvzun4qWEWMA42LB
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1FRvq1mypQ5xLYKbkBSw7LXeXDE7M9Ce9p
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1EqtPqJFK2hcYT2BSQkJvzSLdYo2A97cWQ
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37wBr2VyUCoT6WHjHtfFd4RhYdtwyz7ikZ
0.01030200 BTC
34nGxbidw3zCnye8GP2osRZ8NiiG1HrSw2
0.01211714 BTC
1WZCau2SR3BLF5UNY4KfZ4bhZpXpj6G9W
0.01118543 BTC
17PgcAhc5EEkyGt3CjzefkQFvsPVQrKcRc
0.01006599 BTC
34TwZmqwFfCo1ySXtxVQ5aoZrfpvd5ocyE
0.01007058 BTC
14kH5UhRsvfHEVzNfhpSZn47fAuoWWhmkQ
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36icRcniSx7J8UVmL1J6NvE9SuR3TKUXxe
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1K9pSFM8ogzn73yqZNb7EewVHgdX5D81w
0.01174700 BTC
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0.02733268 BTC
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19hFBy4qYyB5qr4j5Dh3buBgKoFwrEkVJ8
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0.01706218 BTC
39VXseuyZMDztC1z22qFQvwBrnoTm5VatN
0.10745951 BTC
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0.00140230 BTC
1M5kPiHdd5p9t81UnJqBRK3dWRnX4LoHGQ
0.01275984 BTC
3HxJUz94VUfwdRHtEjAZakQJwiFLaLb8H2
0.06133780 BTC
1KTjU6z1QdSLkfJh85ZQZUD4yeKDMZx8Ug
0.05000921 BTC
1PpEmq8h9DG6mGnJMKBAkbAtVttFLrXeSp
0.01733515 BTC
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0.01153854 BTC
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0.01076058 BTC
1NbwJvyeA4B2HBht6ijrfJg6Uo3PMEkYtx
0.07335562 BTC
18iUcEMqTDZDfYyodeVCPHJBgvcsWjjEGt
0.01039222 BTC
14YMHw6Ks5J5Q7ffoGVoNj4gwFVBqUaDRZ
0.00592940 BTC
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0.01189289 BTC
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0.06459009 BTC
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0.00115354 BTC
3EPj3ySdYo3EkKT8de6KhT8NpwSN1bgXb3
0.01878810 BTC
Load more outputs... (801 remaining)
Fee
0.00097788 BTC
(3.077 sat/B - 0.769 sat/WU - 31781 bytes)

So I did the first 134 on the list of 940

Under 0.001 25
Over 0.01 104
0ver 0.10 4
Over. 1.00 1

You can see. most miners grabbed over 0.01 btc and under 0.1 btc

puts them in the 1 ph to 10 ph range.

Not they could be lower 350 th. would take 3 days to reach 0.01 btc

So you can argue base on this smaller sample. most miners at viabtc have between 333th and 10 ph

only 1 guy is mining over 1 btc a day. = super farm
only 4 are doing over 0.1 btc a day. = large farm.

I would argue if you break down this transaction completely you would find that more then 1/2 the hash and coin paid. is to guys in the 333th to 10ph farm size.

these people will be nimble and shift fast because they can.

If you have all whatsminer m20s say 66 th. and 30 pieces

you can alter from low to high on all 30 pieces in under 1 minute That is from 49th to 66th x 30 fast.

if they were marginal at a diff of 16.1. and mined at low speed. so 30 x 49 = 1.47 ph

14 keystrokes on the whatsminer 5.0.2 app and they all mine at high speed. 30 x 66 = 1.98 ph. 34% hash jump

and if the jump goes 18%. they will drop back to low speed at 1.47 ph. 25% hash drop.

this is one section of miners.

then if you grabbed a 2 month rainy season contract you may load up with s9's at 2 cent power and hope you make out.

when we saw the big hash drop a while back we could see with 1 week to go hash would drop.
if you did a 1 mega watt contract. for 2 months. at a penny

you could fire up old gear on hand. these guys won't shut down for 2 months.

I can give 11 angles all because I think we really have 200eh of gear able to mine and we mine with only 90 to 120eh due to low coin price and high diff.

Long post sorry.

favebook

sr. member

Activity: 604

Merit: 416

New gear (S19 Pro and S19) are already being turned on. They were delivered to Serbia (I do not know how exactly as Bitmain is not officially shipping to Serbia) like two or three weeks ago. Also as soon as miners saw the drop in difficulty, they turned back their miners, that's what I did too, had 2 T2TZ sitting as soon as BTC halved and they weren't running until 5 days ago.

Topic: It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 16. (Read 14862 times)