Topic: It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 13. (Read 14627 times)

my ATI HD 4850 may ride again?  yes! it made my 1st coin back in 2011.

heck maybe i should try to get it up and running again. dunno what software would even support it anymore.

/end daydream

Phil... let me pick your brain.... at what price point will 30th miners at 6c/kw/hr power will break even ?

Many have advised me that its a lost cause but if I was not wrong at their peak 15k pricing....  every miner in the world were dusting even their oldest & powerhungry GPUs to work

We all would like it to continue upwards and onwards.

Maybe 11k by mid August?

With BTC touching 10k....... I am very tempted to restart my 30TH miners!

I know all and all...this is why I'm always on the wrong end of BTC/Crypto Choices..it is too often to be 'chance' so perhaps I'm a 'reverse' visionary

Yeah it would be nice to see a lot of 1166 models.

Price has gone up a bit about 9700 last I looked.

@ searing did you know the founder of Fleetwood Mac died today

or was your reference to "the edge of seventeen" a vision?

Now there would be a lot of space for AvalonMiner 11 series...! With competetive power efficiency vs. S19 and M30S++.

Do you really think Bitmain and the rest are gonna release anything new of any Algo flavor BTC/Crypto or otherwise even beginning of the 2021 year? I just can't see it.

I can see however them continuing the design aspects of any flavor of BTC/crypto for machines and sitting on such and/if when BTC/Crypto was to pop in price...THEN release such. But I think all this, with the pandemic and all, from a manufacturing point of view would be as they say from a 'dead stop'.

From what I understand, no matter how confident you are or how many chip platters you get for your ASIC chips there is a 3 month lead time to pull the trigger. Now assuming I'm right and most ASIC makers are sitting on their hands right now...we would need a pretty good pump to pull such off, like, IMHO above 11-12K for sure and 'stable' at that point, again, IMHO, as in the past the 'dreaded' 3-month pre-order (or more) and the above $3k price for any flavor of BTC/crypto ASIC would come back into play...and of course, as in the past, during that 3-month or more pre-order places like Bitmain and the rest will be filling up their data halls and driving up the difficulty, to fill their own empty ASIC coffers first. Again, the 'bad old days' of ASIC mining with a lot more risk and a lot less profit. Just saying I've seen this song play at least TWICE with various ASIC makers of any flavor Algo in the past. So myself, I don't see anything even potentially being able to MAYBE speculate on of any crypto/BTC flavor ASIC till at least Fall of 2021 at best. This is also wildly optimistic in my view.

I could be wrong.....but the big guys/manufacturing/ASIC makers are 'hunkering down' and it will take them more than a bit to 'rev up' again with the corresponding 'moon' to get them off the pad. We will see, hope I'm wrong, but damn the 'tune and music' is so damn haunting and familiar!

Good news if true.

Now of course whatsminer will go up in price.

But growth will slow.

The last I looked a m30s is no more efficient than the s17pro set to low.

the 30s     is 38 watts a th
the 30s+   is 34 watts a th
the 30s++ is 31 watts a th

I've got an info from one of Bitmain's marketing people that we might not see a single 19 series for sale all the way till the January.

Not really sure how correct this info is, but they told me that they do not know about other miners like Z15.

Seems like the drop is getting a bit smaller, and my outrageous scenario of 50% now needs a 55% increase.


But I'm still confident we will see a rise in the hashrate, if Microbt can brag about sales, I don't see why Bitmain with it's sold out till October batches wouldn't be able to sell a few tens of thousands of miners at least, it's not overt ill the fat lady sing, or in this case till Bitmain delivers, if! they are going to with all the legal troubles and the fork the company is going through. Also, I have one thing I could blame for this drop, the floods happening right now in China, I am not familiar with the design of micro hydroelectrical stations they have in China but around here when there is a flood that has tons of debris and the debit is off the scales turbines are getting shut down and they let the spillway take care of the excess water.  Of course, just an assumption with little to back up this scenario other than some piece of news.
Anyhow, me being wrong is good for miners around here, so I guess everybody is happy with it.

Well a drop would be nice.

We know there is cheap power out there.

lets do a simple resource number the network is 120 eh

all gear is 50 watts average

we get 6000 megawatts maybe 7000 megawatts to run the entire network.

many dams world wide have enough capacity to run the entire network.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_hydroelectric_power_stations

Yep, it sure is great to see some up movement for a change.

Now at 9.6k USD.

That's true, but we don't know if they accounted for those factors or not, it's more than just broken grears and cooling, you have labor, rent, tax, security, insurance, and etc. I don't think the exact figure matters, the point here is that there is a good percentage of miners who operate at a much cheaper cost than the rest, it's like a "glitch in the game" where some people get to utilize something that others can't, those who pay 5-6-7 cents have the same extra cost from cooling to broken gears, in fact things could be even worse for them, are tax, labor and all that the same between China, Russia and the U.S? I bet not, anyway, looks like we have really hit the roof on difficulty and there we go.

---

So we finally get an uptick to 9500+ on the price side

and a downtick on the diff

I thought China was 1-2c kWh during these months of the rainy season (if the miners or the power or the Inet is not wiped out by floods in whatever/whichever the downstream province you may be storing your china ASICs at. Or is the above 3.3c kWh above best deal in USA/Canada the best in those countries you can pull off. I still think MASSIVE amounts of miners are mining for free on hydropower with electric utility handshake deals...the utils have electric in the rainy season they can't fully use and Bitmain/Innsilicoin/etc have miners..thus 'handshake deal' via rainy season. Utility supplies electric and Bitmain or whoever supplies ASIC equipment of whatever flavor and split the coins at the end of the month 50/50 till the rainy season is over in I think 2 months. win/win it seems..if indeed the 1-2c kWh in China is more or less correct with and/or alongside the 50/50 split arrangement above. Anyway ....like I know anything..but have heard the above as rumors off/on for last few years.

Brad

I personally I think the median price is more then 3 cents for power.

Now If you look at it they add 10% for cooling and infrastructure which means 3.3 cents.

I also do not see broken gear anywhere in the calculation.

i do about 10% for broken gear.   so this means  3.6 cents is a better number to use.

not 3 cents.

But what do I know.

If you use 3.6 cents and price stays flat they are wrong.

We will be more like 180-210 eh.

Indeed, that's great point phill,  you would include those under the "newbies" who make profitability calculation off by a good portion, really it's like slowing down when the traffic light is green because you can't possibly trust that all cars from the other roads will stop for the red light, it's common sense, assuming that all other miners run their gears at the same exact conditions as you are is plain stupid.


That's a nice read buddy, despite the fact that it could be off by 50% i tend to agree to many points.


So by July 2021 IF bitcoin price is at about $11,250 - 12,150$ hash rate should be 260EH or nearly double the current hashrate, sounds reasonable to me, but the price factor is CRUTIAL, taking their estimation of the average cost being 3cents per Khw, let's run some numbers.

S19         95TH  > $2150 for September batch > Makes $145 a month > ROI in 15   Months
S19pro    110TH  > 2900 for September batch > Makes $175 a month > ROI in  16  Months

The above numbers don't include pool fees, other operation and maitninace fees, it only takes powest cost of 3cents into account, these numbers are pretty terrible, assuming addition cost add 10-20% it will take about 18 months for these gears to ROI, 18 months is probably above their techincal lifespan anyway, and this assumes that difficulty states flat, it will be even worse with those miners who have FREE power keep adding more gears with 100% felixblity, with free power you ROI an S9 in 2-3 months, the incentive to mine at 0 power cost will always be there, it will only make thing works for anyone who pays a thing for power, even those 3 cents guys, let alone 4-5-6-7 cats.

The research is good, I wish it was done in the assumption that bitcoin price isn't going to increase, so if we have +100% difficulty and +35% price, if price is +0% then difficulty is +65% or about 200EH in a year from now.

That is a fantastic report with lots of solid info been looking for a report like this for some time great find LOTV8's.

Just shows really the amount of cheap power in china really has a monopoly over the network now and I worry that if prices in the west continue to rise the way they have been then it's going to put a lot of pressure on miners and hand control over to the east.

Thanks for the share.

https://medium.com/@BitOoda/bitcoin-mining-hashrate-and-power-analysis-bitooda-research-ebc25f5650bf

interesting new report on mining, with a link to the full pdf