Topic: It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 17. (Read 14827 times)

ok now i know im stupid. and i read that many big miners have power contracts still in effect so they will run no matter the price of difficulty till they expire.

but wasnt there a big drop last(?) adjustment? why shut down and turn it back on if power was fixed.

or do you think its new gear. although i though bitmain wasnt shipping new orders due to their internal civil war.

or is this preordered gear just exiting the pipeline?

sorry if this was already explained upthread. ive tried to keep up but as i said im not too bright. is there a tldr for a brief recap?

Still moving up in diff +18%. this will get us very close to all time high

we will be 16.2 or 16.3.

ATH IS 16.6. iirc

BTC price isn't going to help any at this time: $9357.

Well I did not post here for a few days hoping to see an improvement.


It is quite impressive we are still over +15% with 999 block to go.

and price is around 9763

a fast calculation below

100 th at 50 watts. earns 9.07 and uses 120 k-watts thus

9.07 -0.00 = 9.07. with 'free' power.  and this does not count labor
9.07 -1.20 = 7.87. with 1 cent power
9.07 -2.40 = 6.67  with 2 cent power
9.07 -3.60 = 5.47  with 3 cent power
9.07 -4.80 = 4.27. with 4 cent power
9.07 -6.00 = 3.07. with 5 cent power
9.07 -7.20 = 1.87  with 6 cent power
9.07 -8.40 = 0.67. with 7 cent power

lets say we do go 15%. the 9.07 becomes

7.71-0.00 = 7.71 with 'free' power
7.71-1.20 = 6.51 with 1 cent
7.71-2.40 = 5.31 with 2 cent
7.71-3.60 = 4.11 with 3 cent
7.71-4.80 = 2.91 with 4 cent
7.71-6.00 = 1.71 with 5 cent
7.71-7.20 = 0.51 with 6 cent  power

I used 50 watt gear as my number because I think as of now the network may be close to 50 watt gear.

Phil, aren't we officially difficulty prediction experts?  

Jokes aside, diff.cryptothis is undergoing some changes, a nice copy to clipboard function, and seems like dark-mode is in the making.

So at current prices and difficulty, a lot of S9s are profitable, many S19s / M30s came online, I am not surprised seeing 88 blocks ahead in under 500 blocks, looks like the jump in difficulty for this epoch will be big, maybe big enough to wipe the -9% we had.

Ill set it up and see what it can do as is and report back.  It is packed up now as we are moving around the middle of july to a new house a few minutes up the road.

True, the system doesn't have to run 24/7, maybe just during the day and a few hours at night, remember you need to focus on winter's numbers since this is more like a winter space heater, so say 5 hours per day from solar, maybe add 3*100ah 12 volts battery, I guess they cost about $400 and can give you 6 hours of 300 watts, so you are getting 11 hours of free mining a day for about 4-5 years.

So you looking at about 1k for the whole setup including the miner, if you run it around the winter only, maybe 6 months, this gives you about 8-10 years of heat and a ticket in the bitcoin block race.

Looking forward to more details on your project.

you would be surprised on getting cheap batteries.  If you are near a golf course "dead" golf cart batteries are cheap.

If I was going to do a small play system I would add 1 panel a bigger one say 300watts. blend it into the 300 watts he has. source some batteries he does not need to run system all the time.

Run it 9 hours a day.   600 watts of panels to charger to batteries to inverter to s9 set to 300 watts. which would be 8 volts and 225  on brains.

way cheaper then a 24 hour setup. and for 6 hours a day he has a shot to hit a block on solo.ckpool

since he is subject to seasonal change.  He could do 4 hours in winter 6 hours in spring 8 hours in summer.

If he really looked around I would think he could do this for 500 dollars.

this never lets batteries run down as he only runs an hour after sunrise. and shuts down 1 hour before sundown.

it would be a fun project.
I will be doing a thread soon on s9 upgrades here is the link

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/new-s9-upgrade-thread-some-info-is-5253561

note:

it is a teaser so no info is on it.

HAHA well then nevermind.  They are actually a combination of 2 - 50 watt and 1 - 100 watt renogy panels.  Had them for a few years.  I think I purchased them on Amazon.  I tinkered around with it a bit but solar is so limited for a hobbyist - unless I want to charge my cell phone or run an LED light.

More than a single panel for 300watts? when did you buy those? the lowest I see nowadays where I live is 300w per panel, up to 500w, running the space heater version of S9 might do, let's say it needs 300wh so that's 7200w per day, depending on where you live, say you get 5 hours of sunlight ,so all you need from the backup batteries would be  5700w per day, in batteries' language that's more like 5700*2 = 11400w since you can't really discharge a battery with more than 50% DOD, say your system is 12v so that will be 950ampH batteries, well, worse than I thought . I think 950ah will cost you about 1k,  say with you get an average quality battery with 1500 cycles at 50% dod, you are looking at about 4 years of running that S9 on batteries and solar alone, provided of course you have enough solar to charge the batteries to 100% in those 4-5 hours of sunlight.

Amazing story - I had no idea this was a thing, let alone widespread.

I have a very small solar setup, 300 watts of panels and a deep cycle battery.  I keep it charged up for emergency use and for a hobby.  Gonna try to put one of those S9 space heaters on one and see what it does.  Probably need to put a few more panels on that thing.  But something to try.

The ware house owner in clifton has 7 buildings the 2ph with mine costs

lets say 2 k of the bill  all the other business using the builds cost say 5k.

the total bill is 7k a month.  he got the long deal til 2021 oct 1.  he charges his renters 7k for power so he pays 0 cash  for the bill.

he paid zip for the gear.

and he clears 1 ph of mining every day.

he had no customer fo the spare power so  would you want to break even on the monthly power bill or would you want the coins you get from us.

his other renters still pay a decent power rate even with the markup he charges them.


So we all gain.  Downside covid-19 hurt renters income.  and now threat of riot damage.

of course mining today is not making what it did last month. but it will sort out over time.

I remember this story, you told me about it once, still interesting every time I read it, so free power in "great" America, let alone other countries, where I live we have access to free or nearly free power in most places, I know a few other countries, I know a country where people would set farms in the middle of nowhere, bribe someone in the power company because it's owned by the government, they hook up un-metered power line for you, let the farm run for a few months, maybe years, it's like hit and run, if the police where to find it, well it's a dozen of miners that belong to nobody, they will seize them, probably sell them for cheap on an auction for someone else to pick them up and do the exact same thing all over again, and since it takes a long enough time for the police to notice it ( if ever ) and with 0 power rate, those farms ROI in 2-4 months with the right gear in place.

This is really not just a bunch of miners running on free power, it's a TON of them, this makes mining predictions way less accurate, you can't say all S9s will shut down if difficulty gets to x and price get to y,  a huge portion of those S9s will only shut down if they fail, burn, or get seized by the government, which might be a few years from when mining with S9 is no longer profitable for anyone who actually pays for power, the same thing happened with V9 or S7, some people think nobody uses these gears anymore, but trust me, there are a lot of them still hashing their way in.

I had a long article linked to bitcointalk years ago about Chinese ghost cites.

Here is the short of it there where places in China empty apartment complexes and the like.

So how about this example 10x 20 story apartments standing empty but operational.  that is 200 stories with say 10 apartments  or 2000 empty apartments.  In the winter running gear to keep them warm is feasible.

Years ago my wife and I lived in an apartment in Astoria New York



We had a major black out  everything was dark. I said to my wife lets finish the ice cream before it melts.

I opened the fridge and it worked.  I said wtf  I later tried to figure out how it was hot wired and what it was hot wired to.  I found out it had 10 gauge wire.  But never could figure out how it was hooked up.

Since it was long before bitcoin I just ran my fridge for free .

You would be surprised how much free power is out there.

I had a buddy that was a building engineer in a few malls and later in the empire state building.  He had access to lots of power in nooks and crannies of those buildings.  These are smaller example of mine and hold people.

One or two or three machines are not much but  New York City has thousands of spots that could be doing a small operation.

So it is no longer small it is 20000 miners.   who cares if it is all s9's 20,000 x 14 =  280000 th or 280 ph


these people are around.  smaller than me.  with my 2000 th on a 50-50 split deal.  which is 1000 th for free.

they are a motorbike on the highway.  I am a van.

Yeah the big fleet it 100 to 1000 full size  greyhound buses.

I quoted what you wrote.


What I understood from "hands that don't have to sell BTC"  is that 0 BTC has to be sold by those "strong hands", anyway while in the process of searching for that statement, I remembered that I know Matt's business partner Mason (from their company name), it's been a while since we talked so figured out i'd ask him if Blockware S really think that, and his answer was that "Matt will never say such a thing', which means he also understands "don't have to sell BTC" as in 0 BTC to be sold,  but we will just call it a misquotation or a misunderstanding on my side and leave it there.

Now the fact that there are some people like phill or myself who don't have to sell BTC, or even Blockware who run about 10MW of mining gears, has nothing to do with halving, it's all about the power/business plan you have  (Mason also agrees to that), phill explained in details, as far as the halving is concerned it does have a positive impact on the minimum selling pressure but is only valid for a very short period of time (right after a difficulty drop) but it's only a matter of time before miners start adding more hashrate to compete against one another, without the price going any higher, miners will be forced to sell more bitcoin since they will be getting less of it.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the minimum sell pressure assumes that miners only sell enough to pay their bills, which is a good way to run the numbers, but if you think about it, there is no reason why wouldn't miners sell more or ALL of their BTC earnings, I am not claiming the research is wrong, I know Mason for a long time and he knows his stuff, I know and talk to many large miners, and all of them will tell you the same "we are speculating".

Do you want to hear a funny story? I personally know a guy who bought 10,000 S9s that will run on FREE power, this is only one person whom I happen to know, how many others? probably a dozen, who can count all of them and add those numbers into any research? nobody, so will the selling pressure really drop from now on (long term)? maybe yes, maybe no, IMO it's highly unlikely unless bitcoin increases in price and if we stay flat, miners will be in an equilibrium where mining revenue is too slim, and they will probably have to sell most of their btc earnings to survive for the long run.


.

True, but that's a lot of maybes, they could buy more mining gears, they could buy gold, or of course, hold BTC, what I think that at least the majority of large miners in China sell most of their mined BTC to hedge their funds, remember that investing in mining gears, is somehow investing in bitcoin itself, your profitability depends greatly on BTC's price and existence in the first place, if things go south, you lose everything, wise investors usually know how to hedge their wealth.

You don't have to be large I can mine and hold due to my deal.

I know others with the same setups.

You need to find someone with a power contract that he is stuck with.

Many people  buy a 1 year 1 mega watt contract to something like that and get stuck with the contract.

My host has a three year power deal.  He splits coins with me. my gear is paid off.  so I can mine and hold the entire year. if I choose to.

I am small about 2 ph.  but I know a 10ph guy same setup.  he is sitting on 200 s17pros giving him just over 10.6 ph

he gets 5.3 ph worth of coins.  the guy with excess power gets 5.3 ph worth of coins  he is obliged to pay his power contract for  next 16 months.

the owner of the miners can simply hold coins.

I know a third guy with a 1 ph deal.

all three of us have the gear paid off
all three of us have a mix of s9,m10,m20,s17,a1066

we can sit on the gear and just take in coins for about 13 to 18 months.

If I know three guys in NJ like this there are more scattered about.

I would think it could be 5% of the worlds hash is being power by people with failed power contracts.

my guy lost a lot of freezers when an ice cream guy shut down. so he had spare power.  things went sideways with cover-19 and now the riots.  we did not and may never build the big solar array.

buy solar still has the 1 acre array for his home and some mining.

but the clifton place may be around for 14 months and then shut down.

hard to say.  If a huge rally happens we will  do very well if it limps a long it will most likely die off.

I never said "zero btc" or "no btc" but a significant less amount. I mean if miners are able to pay expenses without selling BTC, for many reasons - previous profit, money from other assets they have, etc. and they have a choice, then they may choose to not sell BTC if they think its a better asset to own than cash, or other assets.

I mean this doesn't seem like 1+1=3 nor does it seem like rocket science. Matt literally says that this is the case with some large miners and is correlated with mining consolidating into stronger hands.

Do I have proof that 1+1 = 2? I really don't, I just know it is.  I don't know who that guy is but I am sure that anyone who knows the basic of economy and mining won't say



The bold part is 1+1 = 3, really it doesn't matter who says it, if Albert Einstein comes back alive from his grave and say 1+1 = 3, it will still be wrong, and since you mentioned that


Then I can only assume that you misunderstood whatever he was trying to say, could you please quote the part where he says, "miners don't have to sell BTC"? Because that statement is really wrong, I have no better way of telling you how wrong that sounds.

Hey Mike, Matt works in the mining industry and is in touch with large miners on a daily basis as a part of his business. You completely discount what he has to say. Do you have proof of this on your end or just speculation based on the economics being the way you suppose they are? Honest question, as I have no direct personal knowledge either way.

and boom. diff is now 13.7

my miners made 1800 x 0.00000883 = 0.015894 btc a day. of which I get 25%

today they make 1800 x 0.00000964 = 0.017352 btc a day of which I get 25%

so in theory I will earn 1.58337 btc over the next year.  with full flat diff.


the ath diff was 16.5.  we are at 13.7

lets see how this unfolds.