Jan 12th to Approx Jan 27th diff thread (3.5%) - page 5.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: QuestionAuthority on January 17, 2015, 12:50:18 PM

If the price were to stabilize between $180-$210 for 90 days how much drop off in hash rate would you all expect? How much, how fast and what impact to the difficulty?

really hard to answer your question.

The 180 - 210 number puts a lot of pressure on diff. but will some go out and buy sp20's and s-5's to be able to earn over the price of power.

Also is or does a .2-.3 watt miner exist at a cheap price?

Assuming sp20's and s-5's stay as the best gear around. how low do they sell at?

I am 8 sp20's and 1 s-5.

In terms of power available I am just about all in. maybe 1 more s-5 and I am maxed.

What about the guy with 200 s-3's he can't get much for them on ebay craig's list etc.

but at 180 his s-3's are in the red.

How about a big farm 2000 s-3's and the farmer did not sell his s-3's to buy s-5's or sp20's

lets give him 4 cent power in the state of washington and 2 cents for other costs and he is 6 cent power.

his 1ph clears 30000 usd a month. now if he setup with s-3's in nov 2014 he spent 500000 to build the farm. say he made 100,000 in nov dec and jan.

he is 400,000 in the hole but his cheaper power cost farm is paying above costs.

he is standing pat. and hoping to skip the s-5's and the sp20's . he may have enough back on his investment of 500k in the late spring just in time for new gear.

QuestionAuthority

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You lead and I'll watch you walk away.

If the price were to stabilize between $180-$210 for 90 days how much drop off in hash rate would you all expect? How much, how fast and what impact to the difficulty?

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: notlist3d on January 16, 2015, 04:26:04 PM

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,113,243,921 (-1.95%)
Adjust time:    After 1457 Blocks, About 10.6 days

Around 215 per coin. Guess it could be worse but sure hope to see price go back up a little more.

my birthday is this Jan 27 .

So a new diff may come on my birthday.
I want a 41 diff and 260 price on my birthday. I could live with that.

I am getting other fears about the industry.

Gridseed blades went from 3000 usd to 100 usd and LTC went from 40 usd to 2 usd.

I can see s-5's selling off at 200usd in an effort from bitmaintech to get out of the business.

I do not think we need this firesale.

notlist3d

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Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,113,243,921 (-1.95%)
Adjust time:    After 1457 Blocks, About 10.6 days

Around 215 per coin. Guess it could be worse but sure hope to see price go back up a little more.

philipma1957

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Quote from: Swimmer63 on January 16, 2015, 11:41:17 AM

Assuming the price holds I think we'll see the S3's and all miners released prior to their introduction slowly get turned off.
Does anyone know if BitFury has their new chip up mining? They said it would be released around now but I don't think it's actually up in mass yet.

yeah this diff and the next will be very interesting. Along with btc price.

Swimmer63

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Assuming the price holds I think we'll see the S3's and all miners released prior to their introduction slowly get turned off.
Does anyone know if BitFury has their new chip up mining? They said it would be released around now but I don't think it's actually up in mass yet.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   339209
Total BTC   13.730M

Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   42892876733 in 1495 blks this is (-2.45%)

Network total   310567.804 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.92 / 608 s

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:   43,219,778,244 (-1.71%)
Adjust time:   After 1495 Blocks, About 10.8 days
Hashrate(?):   304,322,472 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 10.4 minutes
3 blocks: 31.3 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   9:15 (2.2 minutes ago)

It is pretty simple math we have at least 80ph in s-3's network wide.

If you are over 12 cents a kwatt your s3 is losing money.

I have to think that s3 owners are hoping to go back to a 300 usd price. They are holding on at least for a while.

The s3 now sells on ebay for 118 and make a best offer.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Bitmain-Antminer-S3-SHA-256-BTC-Bitcoin-Miner-441GH-s-340w-Used-Full-Function-/261718288439?pt=US_Virtual_Currency&hash=item3cefa02837

and some s3+ are 119

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Bitmain-Antminer-S3-450-GH-Asic-Bitcoin-Miner-SHA256-In-hand-Not-S1-S2-S5-/291320098280?pt=US_Virtual_Currency&hash=item43d407ede8

I have about 200 in ebucks to spend and I would not buy these since they would kill me on power.

suchmoon

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https://bpip.org

Quote from: notlist3d on January 16, 2015, 01:46:31 AM

With BTC going up now btcwisdom is showing a upward trend on hashrate.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,454,349,592 (-1.18%)
Adjust time:    After 1536 Blocks, About 11.1 days
Hashrate(?):    302,754,595 GH/s

After nearly 500 blocks done in this cycle the average 504-block time is 10.4 minutes, or ~4% below target.

It looks like there is a lot of hope still in the mining business that BTC will rise. I don't believe that only less than 10% of hashpower would become unprofitable with this recent exchange rate drop. Some are probably just trying to hold out until their next electric bill

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

but on www.bitcoincharts.com

still lower

Blocks   339172
Total BTC   13.729M

Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   43225557369 in 1532 blks

Network total   373889.925 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.13 / 505 s

notlist3d

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With BTC going up now btcwisdom is showing a upward trend on hashrate.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,454,349,592 (-1.18%)
Adjust time:    After 1536 Blocks, About 11.1 days
Hashrate(?):    302,754,595 GH/s

notlist3d

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Quote from: klondike_bar on January 15, 2015, 12:33:32 PM

Quote from: davejh on January 15, 2015, 12:20:07 PM

Quote from: notlist3d on January 15, 2015, 02:05:13 AM

It will be interesting to see what happens with hosted miners at some data centers if price continues to be down. I think some might have hard time paying data centers if we keep going so low on BTC price.

The interesting question is how long do the data centres have commitments on power? If they've pre-paid or have contractual obligations then their hashing will stay online as long as the companies involved stay solvent. My guess is that we won't see too many gradual drops from the largest hashing locations, but instead we'll see step drops as whole sites go offline instead.

So far there doesn't seem to be too much evidence of huge amounts of hashing going offline just yet, although realistically it will take a couple of weeks to really be sure unless there are some dramatic reductions. Smaller miners are probably switching off some of their stuff but anything less than about 15 PH/s pretty-much ends up looking like noise in the charts.

a lot of the big players upgraded to stuff thats <1w/gh, and/or pay <$0.08/kwh worth of costs and maintenance. they can be squeezed a bit further before they have to shut down.

but the farms that never unloaded the AM gear or those A1/dragon units are probably struggling hard right now, even if they pay low power costs.

personally, Im hoping we see a bubble after another 2 weeks of this despair and hashrate shutting down. A bubble causes mining to be profitable to a much wider audience, and the rapid price increases allow hundreds of small miners to deploy more equipment on outlets/locations they had already, compared to months of planning and rollout required by the big guys like Bitfury. typically it helps decentralise it and profits whoever can plug the gear in fastest

The A1/dragon who pay data centers to host will really hurt to. I think we will see quite a few hit ebay.

Difficulty slowly going down. And around 220 almost on btc price. So doing a little better.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,327,517,233 (-1.46%)
Adjust time:    After 1618 Blocks, About 11.9 days
Hashrate(?):    294,102,980 GH/s

klondike_bar

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ASIC Wannabe

Quote from: davejh on January 15, 2015, 12:20:07 PM

Quote from: notlist3d on January 15, 2015, 02:05:13 AM

It will be interesting to see what happens with hosted miners at some data centers if price continues to be down. I think some might have hard time paying data centers if we keep going so low on BTC price.

The interesting question is how long do the data centres have commitments on power? If they've pre-paid or have contractual obligations then their hashing will stay online as long as the companies involved stay solvent. My guess is that we won't see too many gradual drops from the largest hashing locations, but instead we'll see step drops as whole sites go offline instead.

So far there doesn't seem to be too much evidence of huge amounts of hashing going offline just yet, although realistically it will take a couple of weeks to really be sure unless there are some dramatic reductions. Smaller miners are probably switching off some of their stuff but anything less than about 15 PH/s pretty-much ends up looking like noise in the charts.

a lot of the big players upgraded to stuff thats <1w/gh, and/or pay <$0.08/kwh worth of costs and maintenance. they can be squeezed a bit further before they have to shut down.

but the farms that never unloaded the AM gear or those A1/dragon units are probably struggling hard right now, even if they pay low power costs.

personally, Im hoping we see a bubble after another 2 weeks of this despair and hashrate shutting down. A bubble causes mining to be profitable to a much wider audience, and the rapid price increases allow hundreds of small miners to deploy more equipment on outlets/locations they had already, compared to months of planning and rollout required by the big guys like Bitfury. typically it helps decentralise it and profits whoever can plug the gear in fastest

klondike_bar

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ASIC Wannabe

Quote from: philipma1957 on January 15, 2015, 09:10:17 AM

price has crept back past 210 usd. the drop in diff to 42.8 would be nice

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ (-2.57%)

yeah, looks like the rebound happened nicely. Probably gonna dip below $200 again once more, and then hopefully we can finally see it get bck around $250 and begin a real uptrend

i think a -8% change is still very likely, there are probably a lot of machines mining at a slight loss because they expect BTC>$250 again soon. if tat doesnt happen it will keep shaking out all those with high priced power or low efficiency hardware.

Im just glad that of my 20.5TH, 16TH of it is 0.5w/GH or better, and the remainder is an SP10 (~0.9w), S2 (1w), and BTCG (1.2w). I plan on turning the bitgarden off very soon, as well as the S2, since they are both working at a slight loss. Hopefully the market goes up and in a few weeks they will turn back on

davejh

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Quote from: notlist3d on January 15, 2015, 02:05:13 AM

It will be interesting to see what happens with hosted miners at some data centers if price continues to be down. I think some might have hard time paying data centers if we keep going so low on BTC price.

The interesting question is how long do the data centres have commitments on power? If they've pre-paid or have contractual obligations then their hashing will stay online as long as the companies involved stay solvent. My guess is that we won't see too many gradual drops from the largest hashing locations, but instead we'll see step drops as whole sites go offline instead.

So far there doesn't seem to be too much evidence of huge amounts of hashing going offline just yet, although realistically it will take a couple of weeks to really be sure unless there are some dramatic reductions. Smaller miners are probably switching off some of their stuff but anything less than about 15 PH/s pretty-much ends up looking like noise in the charts.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

price has crept back past 210 usd. the drop in diff to 42.8 would be nice

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ (-2.57%)

Blocks   339054
Total BTC   13.726M

Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   42838021959 in 1650 blks

Network total   292288.543 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.57 / 646 s ---------------------------If this stays around the drop may be bigger -4% or -5%

The Bottom line is a lot of people are stuck with s-3's. S-3's are more then 60th of the network they don't make much money.

Not as a diff of 43.9 and a price of 210 usd a coin.

I also got back a bit of value on the coins I purchased over the last week.

notlist3d

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BTC price still down but up around 195. Hopefully we continue to see it go up were around 8-9 percent up on price.

Slowly difficulty is going down.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,678,828,853 (-0.67%)
Adjust time:    After 1686 Blocks, About 12.3 days
Hashrate(?):    301,645,842 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours

It will be interesting to see what happens with hosted miners at some data centers if price continues to be down. I think some might have hard time paying data centers if we keep going so low on BTC price.

alh

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Despite the Bitcoin price fall, there is one small bright spot. The difficulty rise may be near zero, with 12+ days to go:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,794,012,725 (-0.40%)
Adjust time:    After 1697 Blocks, About 12.4 days
Hashrate(?):    302,137,553 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: alh on January 14, 2015, 08:43:13 PM

Just to be clear Phillip, I assume when you say that you can "profit" at $180 and 70B difficulty, you mean an operating profit. That doesn't mean to suggest that you will be able to have also paid for the mining gear itself, does it? You will have paid for running costs, primarily electricity, and nothing else?

Actually I switched early and made a lot of btc during the nicehash/westhash rush on paycoin renting. so my 8 remaining sp20's are not much left on initial payoff.

But you are correct in that my numbers are paying for running costs.

The sp20 is a case of did you buy it at the right time. If you were too early you overpaid. if you were too late you missed the westhash , nicehash payments. If you grabbed them at the right time like I did the crash is not so painful.

I also sold 13 or 14 s-3's . So if I add the s-3 money and the overpayments from nice/westhash my 8 sp20's cost me. 3200 + 2000 = 5200 - 2000(s-3's) = 3200 - 1400 in cashed coins = 1800 out of pocket

maybe 1700 maybe 1900 as of today. If i mine them at 1200gh x 8 = 9600gh at 4800 watts. I may earn 2600 over my costs. So I am not as torched as some. I could turn a 700 to 900 profit over the 5200 I put up.

My biggest hit was buying btc the last 6 days I purchased 5btc and I am down at least 500 on that.

But if you sat on s-3's they are close to worthless for resale now. turning to sp20's or s-5's is very hard to do today.

alh

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Just to be clear Phillip, I assume when you say that you can "profit" at $180 and 70B difficulty, you mean an operating profit. That doesn't mean to suggest that you will be able to have also paid for the mining gear itself, does it? You will have paid for running costs, primarily electricity, and nothing else?

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: philipma1957 on January 14, 2015, 12:56:30 PM

Quote from: huffdaddy5 on January 14, 2015, 12:34:06 PM

Well as long as BTC stays below $200 there is no such thing as ROI, even on the most efficient miners and on cheap electric. If this keeps up I suspect some huge farms will be coming down soon which will have to decrease the difficulty. Sounds like a strategy similar to what OPEC is doing. Lower the prices to find a bottom that will cause miners to shut down...

well btc at 180 usd and a diff of 45 to 73 I turn a profit over power.

but s-3's are really hurting here. if you do not have an sp20 or an s-5 or an sp30 sp31 sp35 you are a loser.

now if you have a big s-3 or s-4 setup you can't sell the gear to help buy s-5's or sp20's

If you did the switch over to sp20's or any .5 watt gear you are pretty much a winner with these numbers. If you were slow to switch you are pretty much stuck with a ton of dead gear.

Topic: Jan 12th to Approx Jan 27th diff thread (3.5%) - page 5. (Read 5913 times)