Topic: Jan 12th to Approx Jan 27th diff thread (3.5%) (Read 5925 times)

Locking topic as it is over.   Final stats:
Jan 27 2015    41,272,873,895    -6.14%    295,442,739 GH/s

Please use new thread:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/new-diff-thread-jan-27th-to-feb-11-573-to-009-938186

couple this with the low btc price and miners are in doing well atm.

see new thread;


https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/new-diff-thread-jan-27th-to-feb-11-573-to-009-938186


 I use  3 figures  my guess is -2 to -4

Any early predictions for next adjustment and what are predictions based on please?

it is in !!

Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895    -6.14%           295,442,739 GH/s

woohoo -6.15% with 1.5 hours to go, looking good for those who predicted -6%, spot on keep up the good work

About 2 hours to go

price = 258

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:   41,307,845,790>>>>>>>>>>>>> (-6.06%) <<<<<<<<<<<<< New Number
Adjust time:   After 11 Blocks, About 2.0 hours
Hashrate(?):   280,264,096 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 11.1 minutes
3 blocks: 33.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   8:45 (2.3 minutes ago)


Not that bad at all.

I have to agree with you for the most part.  Slow growth.  Jan of 2016 a 400 to 500ph network looks a lot more likely then a 2000ph network.

Wall Street and Coinbase Exchange may just drive the price up this year tossing all predictions of growth out the window.  In the meantime I am mining.

The problem here is that the Poisson process nature of mining and the relatively short window of blocks found (2016) means that there's a huge amount of variance affecting any difficulty change. When things are expanding rapidly then these are less obvious because +/- 6% doesn't seem dramatic against a backdrop of +20% but when things are much more static it's very difficult to tell the signal from the noise (it's mostly noise). Right now, for example, we may be seeing some large DCs powering down, but it's equally possible that we're just seeing a natural return to normal after what looked like a statistical blip two weeks ago. The problem is that two weeks ago there was no way of knowing if things were trending upwards or not (although this seems very unlikely).

The one thing that we probably can now say with some confidence is that hash rates will now be tied to the BTC price far more than they were for the last 18 months (something I predicted 9 months ago - long term trends do work :-)) unless someone successfully manages to convince very large numbers of people to decentralise the network (unlikely while BTC prices aren't racing upwards). BTC prices aside, technology improvements should almost certainly give us a 2x to 3x increase in global hash rates as more power-efficient hardware comes online but even if the BTC price went back to $1000 it seems unlikely that the network capacity would increase much more than 10x

I have been following difficulty predictions for a while and found out that until 4-5 days before diff change it's pure guessing regardless of method  This is chart of estimates in time before todays difficulty change:


Only few days before difficulty change all the predictions start to unify. At the beginning of the period bitcoinwisdom was overly upside (because of wrong recalc algo) and bitcoincharts is most conservative because it always starts close to zero. I will be dumping cryptanalys.is from watching as their predictions are totall mess lately.

Live chart version is here http://www.nextdifficulty.com/#others

So much for that "price jumping". It jumped right back down to the $250s after a very brief visit in the 300s.

I'm continuing to mine and hodl but I'm starting to feel like a chump.  

looks like it will actually be a rounded -6%, which is still fantastic in my mind. Its likely we will continue to see adjustments around 0% until the price begins staying above $300.
cant wait for my 3xSP20 to show up this week

yeah

 http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   340608
Total BTC   13.765M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   41417600938 in 96 blks
 
Network total   269542.910 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.14 / 701 s  -----------------------This is  -14.33  %

If it stayed  at -14 for the next  96 blocks      vs   - 5.92 for the first 1920 blocks      we could drop to  -  6.32 % . 

     So -5 to - 6.5  is a very safe bet for the next diff.

I keep hoping to see neg 6 but i think will be high neg 5.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    41,367,917,072 (-5.92%)
Adjust time:    After 96 Blocks, About 17.6 hours

 I purchased 5.5 coins as the prices were dropping.
 I sold 5.5 coins as the prices rose. My net profit  was about  100 bucks.  

we are just at 302 on coinbase.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:   41,485,794,891 >>>>>> (-5.65%)
Adjust time:   After 161 Blocks, About 1.2 days
Hashrate(?):   276,330,145 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.9 minutes ---------------------------this is -10% so we could do -6%
3 blocks: 32.8 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/
Blocks   340543
Total BTC   13.764M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   41554383399 in 161 blks >>>>>>>>>>> (-5.49%)
 
Network total   261978.079 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   4.99 / 721 s -------------------- this is -16% so we may do -6%

to have diff at 41.2 and coins at 310 on my birthday JAN 27th  Would be really nice.

Drop in difficulty would be most welcome indeed 

One heck of a ride indeed.  Very happy to see this.   Hard to do any long term planning with this BTC trend.   Around 100 dollars up or so in a week.

With less than 200 blocks to go -6% drop is 95% sure. Together with BTC price bump nice short term opportunity for cloud mining speculation

BTC price is now well over $300 per coin as I type this. What a ride...... 

I would agree a negative would be very nice.   And the price is getting a lot better then the low 200's.  At 200 a coin I was having to start a new plan for some gear I planned to ride out during winter.  Luckily it appears I will be doing good through winter if this continues. 

Even at around .09 cents for electricity some machines were awful tight margins on running at 200.