The second time around, Trump loses by a greater margin than he did in 2020. Even a lot of Trump supporters have moved past Trump and accepted he lost then moved on. Hell, I'm not even sure he'd be able to win the nomination.
Trump losing or winning the general election may depend on whom democrats nominate... and there isn't a simple formula for that. I thought Biden was a horrible candidate but apparently he managed to pull some independents and maybe even disgruntled republicans.
I'm quite sure Trump would win GOP nomination in a landslide. He's been basically offline for 3 months and he's still polling way ahead of any other potential nominee. If he runs for nomination, he would get the inevitable publicity and would dominate the media with the stupid shit he does and says.
I'm not so sure whether he
wants to actually run, or just talk about it and collect donations.