Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game - page 110.

maqifrnswa

sr. member

Activity: 454

Merit: 252

Quote from: chriswen on September 29, 2013, 04:41:59 PM

Quote from: mechs on September 29, 2013, 04:36:54 PM

Quote from: chriswen on September 29, 2013, 04:35:03 PM

So, I have this awesome idea.

Someone should turn just-dice into a stock. So people can trade it on bitfunder or something. Now you ask why wouldn't you just do a regular stock? That's because now people can buy options on the stock. That would be cool.

A stock would be based off revenue from commissions and ads - that is a much better deal than being an investor.

No it would be a third party who invested in just-dice.

Doog doesn't need capital, so he doesn't need to sell stocks. You're proposing a pass through. Go ahead and set one up, offer an IPO, invest it all in JD, and distribute dividends above some bankroll if it is available a given week. Seems kind of silly to me since you could just directly invest in JD - but you're right, you want to setup a JD derivative and that needs some underlying security.

chriswen

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

Quote from: mechs on September 29, 2013, 04:36:54 PM

Quote from: chriswen on September 29, 2013, 04:35:03 PM

So, I have this awesome idea.

Someone should turn just-dice into a stock. So people can trade it on bitfunder or something. Now you ask why wouldn't you just do a regular stock? That's because now people can buy options on the stock. That would be cool.

A stock would be based off revenue from commissions and ads - that is a much better deal than being an investor.

No it would be a third party who invested in just-dice.

mechs

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: chriswen on September 29, 2013, 04:35:03 PM

So, I have this awesome idea.

Someone should turn just-dice into a stock. So people can trade it on bitfunder or something. Now you ask why wouldn't you just do a regular stock? That's because now people can buy options on the stock. That would be cool.

A stock would be based off revenue from commissions and ads - that is a much better deal than being an investor.

chriswen

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

So, I have this awesome idea.

Someone should turn just-dice into a stock. So people can trade it on bitfunder or something. Now you ask why wouldn't you just do a regular stock? That's because now people can buy options on the stock. That would be cool.

BitcoinLeader

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: chriswen on September 29, 2013, 04:28:03 PM

Quote from: HowGudAmI on September 29, 2013, 04:20:16 PM

I could divest now at a loss of only 2.5% from the original amount invested!. Probably the sensible option for the short term but I have kinda grown to love these violent swings.

Wow, if I divested now I would have lost 8% of my original amount invested.

Nope, it's a lot more now.

Well, at this volatility you should just sit and wait till you break even again.

chriswen

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

Quote from: HowGudAmI on September 29, 2013, 04:20:16 PM

I could divest now at a loss of only 2.5% from the original amount invested!. Probably the sensible option for the short term but I have kinda grown to love these violent swings.

Wow, if I divested now I would have lost 8% of my original amount invested.

Nope, it's a lot more now.

HowGudAmI

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

BTC --> ??? --> PROFIT

I could divest now at a loss of only 2.5% from the original amount invested!. Probably the sensible option for the short term but I have kinda grown to love these violent swings.

nicolaennio

member

Activity: 99

Merit: 10

This time he is waging the same amount of money (around 170B), so that there is not even the illusion of a "strategy"...

mechs

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: chriswen on September 29, 2013, 04:04:35 PM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on September 29, 2013, 03:30:49 PM

Quote from: stripykitteh on July 19, 2013, 10:54:15 AM

Seeing 1 million btc being bet today and no profit (nor loss) I was wondering how likely this was. I don't have the answer so if anyone knows?

The above post however showed that the bankroll can go down to -80% so even if that were to happen that would be not an indication of cheating. I think this was with 1% max bet, but still.

Okay, let's see what that would be like.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2778468

Assumptions:
p = 0.495
b = 200 //I'll be assuming 5 000 bets of 200 BTC at 49.5% chance of winning
c = 5 000

Total BTC bet = 1 000 000 BTC
Expected BTC return for gamblers = 990 000 BTC
Expected Profit = 10 000 BTC
Expected Standard Deviation of amount returned to gamblers = 7000 BTC

Expected profit is (10000±7000) BTC
If actual profit was 0, than that would be 1.43 times the standard deviation away from the expected value. If the profit followed a normal distribution, the probability of this distribution occurring through sheer chance is approximately 15.3%

That is just for this one session - you have to look at all his cumulative sessions and the odds really start looking amazing

chriswen

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on September 29, 2013, 03:30:49 PM

Quote from: stripykitteh on July 19, 2013, 10:54:15 AM

Seeing 1 million btc being bet today and no profit (nor loss) I was wondering how likely this was. I don't have the answer so if anyone knows?

The above post however showed that the bankroll can go down to -80% so even if that were to happen that would be not an indication of cheating. I think this was with 1% max bet, but still.

Okay, let's see what that would be like.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2778468

Assumptions:
p = 0.495
b = 200 //I'll be assuming 5 000 bets of 200 BTC at 49.5% chance of winning
c = 5 000

Total BTC bet = 1 000 000 BTC
Expected BTC return for gamblers = 990 000 BTC
Expected Profit = 10 000 BTC
Expected Standard Deviation of amount returned to gamblers = 7000 BTC

Expected profit is (10000±7000) BTC
If actual profit was 0, than that would be 1.43 times the standard deviation away from the expected value. If the profit followed a normal distribution, the probability of this distribution occurring through sheer chance is approximately 15.3%

RationalSpeculator

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

BitcoinLeader

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Swing started again, who's up for 10 BTC too and make a quick 1.25 BTC when profit nets zero again?

broolstoryco

member

Activity: 76

Merit: 10

Enemy of the State

his daily volume is nearly 1mio, our expected profit for today is 10k Sad

mechs

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: broolstoryco on September 29, 2013, 02:37:54 PM

im losing my mind here. such swings

He had a 14 win streak just now on 49.5% all max bets.

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

Quote from: broolstoryco on September 29, 2013, 02:37:54 PM

im losing my mind here. such swings

Haha, learn to love it!

broolstoryco

member

Activity: 76

Merit: 10

Enemy of the State

im losing my mind here. such swings

HowGudAmI

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

BTC --> ??? --> PROFIT

Quote from: drawingthesun on September 29, 2013, 02:11:03 PM

Quote from: DiamondCardz on September 29, 2013, 02:03:13 PM

Quote from: drawingthesun on September 29, 2013, 01:51:12 PM

Quote from: chriswen on September 29, 2013, 01:46:03 PM

Quote from: mechs on September 29, 2013, 01:45:01 PM

Quote from: Skinnkavaj on September 29, 2013, 01:41:13 PM

Before all this with Nakowa winning big and taking the house down. What was the max profit the house ever had since the site started?

1% kelly and had a max profit over 550 BTC

The highest its ever been was 6000 btc. Though I think it was 7500 btc for a short time.

They are talking about the max profit a gambler is allowed to win in one bet. You are talking about the maximum the site profit ever reached.

Yep, if the max profit a gambler could make went that high, then I'd be very scared about how much money dooglus was being trusted with. He's pretty trusted, but not that trusted. Wink

Its only 500,000 btc required, or now with 0.5% max profit, 1,000,000 btc required for a 5,000 bitcoin profit.

I am sure we can trust Dooglus with 10% of all bitcoins.

1 million BTC in one wallet is only worth $127,320,000

drawingthesun

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1015

Quote from: DiamondCardz on September 29, 2013, 02:03:13 PM

Quote from: drawingthesun on September 29, 2013, 01:51:12 PM

Quote from: chriswen on September 29, 2013, 01:46:03 PM

Quote from: mechs on September 29, 2013, 01:45:01 PM

Quote from: Skinnkavaj on September 29, 2013, 01:41:13 PM

Before all this with Nakowa winning big and taking the house down. What was the max profit the house ever had since the site started?

1% kelly and had a max profit over 550 BTC

The highest its ever been was 6000 btc. Though I think it was 7500 btc for a short time.

They are talking about the max profit a gambler is allowed to win in one bet. You are talking about the maximum the site profit ever reached.

Yep, if the max profit a gambler could make went that high, then I'd be very scared about how much money dooglus was being trusted with. He's pretty trusted, but not that trusted. Wink

Its only 500,000 btc required, or now with 0.5% max profit, 1,000,000 btc required for a 5,000 bitcoin profit.

I am sure we can trust Dooglus with 10% of all bitcoins.

DiamondCardz

legendary

Activity: 1134

Merit: 1118

Quote from: drawingthesun on September 29, 2013, 01:51:12 PM

Quote from: chriswen on September 29, 2013, 01:46:03 PM

Quote from: mechs on September 29, 2013, 01:45:01 PM

Quote from: Skinnkavaj on September 29, 2013, 01:41:13 PM

Before all this with Nakowa winning big and taking the house down. What was the max profit the house ever had since the site started?

1% kelly and had a max profit over 550 BTC

The highest its ever been was 6000 btc. Though I think it was 7500 btc for a short time.

They are talking about the max profit a gambler is allowed to win in one bet. You are talking about the maximum the site profit ever reached.

Yep, if the max profit a gambler could make went that high, then I'd be very scared about how much money dooglus was being trusted with. He's pretty trusted, but not that trusted. Wink

BitcoinLeader

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

They should make a graph of the house profit. Then you can see when and how many times within a timeframe it crosses Zero up (profit) and down (loss).

Along with the volume it will show a neat indication of the moving profit and it's associated volume.

Topic: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game - page 110. (Read 435357 times)