Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game - page 111.

mechs

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: drawingthesun on September 29, 2013, 01:51:12 PM

Quote from: chriswen on September 29, 2013, 01:46:03 PM

Quote from: mechs on September 29, 2013, 01:45:01 PM

Quote from: Skinnkavaj on September 29, 2013, 01:41:13 PM

Before all this with Nakowa winning big and taking the house down. What was the max profit the house ever had since the site started?

1% kelly and had a max profit over 550 BTC

The highest its ever been was 6000 btc. Though I think it was 7500 btc for a short time.

They are talking about the max profit a gambler is allowed to win in one bet. You are talking about the maximum the site profit ever reached.

The max profit per bet ever as 550BTC at 1% kelly
The highest profit the site ever had was very briefly over 7500. It was at 5000 for a while before all the volatility started

drawingthesun

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1015

Quote from: chriswen on September 29, 2013, 01:46:03 PM

Quote from: mechs on September 29, 2013, 01:45:01 PM

Quote from: Skinnkavaj on September 29, 2013, 01:41:13 PM

Before all this with Nakowa winning big and taking the house down. What was the max profit the house ever had since the site started?

1% kelly and had a max profit over 550 BTC

The highest its ever been was 6000 btc. Though I think it was 7500 btc for a short time.

They are talking about the max profit a gambler is allowed to win in one bet. You are talking about the maximum the site profit ever reached.

chriswen

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

Quote from: mechs on September 29, 2013, 01:45:01 PM

Quote from: Skinnkavaj on September 29, 2013, 01:41:13 PM

Before all this with Nakowa winning big and taking the house down. What was the max profit the house ever had since the site started?

1% kelly and had a max profit over 550 BTC

The highest its ever been was 6000 btc. Though I think it was 7500 btc for a short time.

mechs

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: Skinnkavaj on September 29, 2013, 01:41:13 PM

Before all this with Nakowa winning big and taking the house down. What was the max profit the house ever had since the site started?

1% kelly and had a max profit over 550 BTC

Skinnkavaj

sr. member

Activity: 469

Merit: 250

English Motherfucker do you speak it ?

Before all this with Nakowa winning big and taking the house down. What was the max profit the house ever had since the site started?

chriswen

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

Quote from: wachtwoord on September 29, 2013, 01:29:30 PM

Quote from: BitcoinLeader on September 29, 2013, 01:26:57 PM

Quote from: broolstoryco on September 29, 2013, 01:24:58 PM

Quote from: chriswen on September 29, 2013, 01:22:06 PM

Quote from: broolstoryco on September 29, 2013, 01:18:44 PM

Quote from: BitcoinLeader on September 29, 2013, 01:15:37 PM

So with 10 BTC investment you can theoretically earn 1.25 from 5K profit swing?

5000 / 40.000 * 10 = 1.25

Let's assume there will be 5 x 5k profit swings in a day, it could earn you about 6.25 Bitcoins with a 10 BTC investment if you step in and out at the right time.
This is without taking divesting fees into account.

theoretically. timing invest/divest is impossible, however (akin to predicting coinflips - dont get fooled by randomness)

Actually it could be possible. If you know there is going to be huge variance then you could invest low and divest high.

Of course you could be missing on profits but its better than losing money. If you know there is gonna be 1k btc profit swing you could make use of that.

no, you could not. you cannot predict the direction, even after a long winning/losing streak. yes you could decrease/increase your variance IF you knew when big bets are coming, but you would also be decreasing your expected value.

If you can't predict the direction, doesn't it mean that the house can go bankrupt?
Because when you enter at -5k, there's a high chance it will go back to zero due to the house edge? Or am I wrong?

You are wrong, that's what Kelly is for. 1% of the bankroll is an ever decreasing number if the house continues to lose.

So it's like Zeno's paradox.

Since you can only lose 1% of your bankroll at a time , you'll never lose your whole bankroll. But, then it doesn't really matter because,
0.99^25 = 22% lost
0.99^50 = 40% bankroll reduction
0.99^100= 63% bankroll lost
0.99^200= 87% bankroll lost

It's like the martingale theory. What's the chance that you'll lose 50 times in a row?

broolstoryco

member

Activity: 76

Merit: 10

Enemy of the State

Quote from: chriswen on September 29, 2013, 01:27:20 PM

Except it is quite reasonable to predict that profit will eventually go down over a certain time period of high variance.

going up or down at any point is symmetrical, with regards to probability. This is the same illusion when one discusses stock prices or forex.

Quote from: BitcoinLeader on September 29, 2013, 01:26:57 PM

If you can't predict the direction, doesn't it mean that the house can go bankrupt?
Because when you enter at -5k, there's a high chance it will go back to zero due to the house edge? Or am I wrong?

the chances are the same as going from +5k to +10k

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

Quote from: BitcoinLeader on September 29, 2013, 01:26:57 PM

Quote from: broolstoryco on September 29, 2013, 01:24:58 PM

Quote from: chriswen on September 29, 2013, 01:22:06 PM

Quote from: broolstoryco on September 29, 2013, 01:18:44 PM

Quote from: BitcoinLeader on September 29, 2013, 01:15:37 PM

So with 10 BTC investment you can theoretically earn 1.25 from 5K profit swing?

5000 / 40.000 * 10 = 1.25

Let's assume there will be 5 x 5k profit swings in a day, it could earn you about 6.25 Bitcoins with a 10 BTC investment if you step in and out at the right time.
This is without taking divesting fees into account.

theoretically. timing invest/divest is impossible, however (akin to predicting coinflips - dont get fooled by randomness)

Actually it could be possible. If you know there is going to be huge variance then you could invest low and divest high.

Of course you could be missing on profits but its better than losing money. If you know there is gonna be 1k btc profit swing you could make use of that.

no, you could not. you cannot predict the direction, even after a long winning/losing streak. yes you could decrease/increase your variance IF you knew when big bets are coming, but you would also be decreasing your expected value.

If you can't predict the direction, doesn't it mean that the house can go bankrupt?
Because when you enter at -5k, there's a high chance it will go back to zero due to the house edge? Or am I wrong?

You are wrong, that's what Kelly is for. 1% of the bankroll is an ever decreasing number if the house continues to lose.

chriswen

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

Quote from: BitcoinLeader on September 29, 2013, 01:26:57 PM

Quote from: broolstoryco on September 29, 2013, 01:24:58 PM

Quote from: chriswen on September 29, 2013, 01:22:06 PM

Quote from: broolstoryco on September 29, 2013, 01:18:44 PM

Quote from: BitcoinLeader on September 29, 2013, 01:15:37 PM

So with 10 BTC investment you can theoretically earn 1.25 from 5K profit swing?

5000 / 40.000 * 10 = 1.25

Let's assume there will be 5 x 5k profit swings in a day, it could earn you about 6.25 Bitcoins with a 10 BTC investment if you step in and out at the right time.
This is without taking divesting fees into account.

theoretically. timing invest/divest is impossible, however (akin to predicting coinflips - dont get fooled by randomness)

Actually it could be possible. If you know there is going to be huge variance then you could invest low and divest high.

Of course you could be missing on profits but its better than losing money. If you know there is gonna be 1k btc profit swing you could make use of that.

no, you could not. you cannot predict the direction, even after a long winning/losing streak. yes you could decrease/increase your variance IF you knew when big bets are coming, but you would also be decreasing your expected value.

If you can't predict the direction, doesn't it mean that the house can go bankrupt?
Because when you enter at -5k, there's a high chance it will go back to zero due to the house edge? Or am I wrong?

Wrong the chance is still the same as going down another 5k.

chriswen

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

Quote from: broolstoryco on September 29, 2013, 01:24:58 PM

Quote from: chriswen on September 29, 2013, 01:22:06 PM

Quote from: broolstoryco on September 29, 2013, 01:18:44 PM

Quote from: BitcoinLeader on September 29, 2013, 01:15:37 PM

So with 10 BTC investment you can theoretically earn 1.25 from 5K profit swing?

5000 / 40.000 * 10 = 1.25

Let's assume there will be 5 x 5k profit swings in a day, it could earn you about 6.25 Bitcoins with a 10 BTC investment if you step in and out at the right time.
This is without taking divesting fees into account.

theoretically. timing invest/divest is impossible, however (akin to predicting coinflips - dont get fooled by randomness)

Actually it could be possible. If you know there is going to be huge variance then you could invest low and divest high.

Of course you could be missing on profits but its better than losing money. If you know there is gonna be 1k btc profit swing you could make use of that.

no, you could not. you cannot predict the direction, even after a long winning/losing streak. yes you could decrease/increase your variance IF you knew when big bets are coming, but you would also be decreasing your expected value.

Except it is quite reasonable to predict that profit will eventually go down over a certain time period of high variance.

BitcoinLeader

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: broolstoryco on September 29, 2013, 01:24:58 PM

Quote from: chriswen on September 29, 2013, 01:22:06 PM

Quote from: broolstoryco on September 29, 2013, 01:18:44 PM

Quote from: BitcoinLeader on September 29, 2013, 01:15:37 PM

So with 10 BTC investment you can theoretically earn 1.25 from 5K profit swing?

5000 / 40.000 * 10 = 1.25

Let's assume there will be 5 x 5k profit swings in a day, it could earn you about 6.25 Bitcoins with a 10 BTC investment if you step in and out at the right time.
This is without taking divesting fees into account.

theoretically. timing invest/divest is impossible, however (akin to predicting coinflips - dont get fooled by randomness)

Actually it could be possible. If you know there is going to be huge variance then you could invest low and divest high.

Of course you could be missing on profits but its better than losing money. If you know there is gonna be 1k btc profit swing you could make use of that.

no, you could not. you cannot predict the direction, even after a long winning/losing streak. yes you could decrease/increase your variance IF you knew when big bets are coming, but you would also be decreasing your expected value.

If you can't predict the direction, doesn't it mean that the house can go bankrupt?
Because when you enter at -5k, there's a high chance it will go back to zero due to the house edge? Or am I wrong?

DiamondCardz

legendary

Activity: 1134

Merit: 1118

Quote from: integrity42 on September 29, 2013, 01:16:37 PM

What is happening is really unbelievable.

enhpad turned 50BTC into 2,300, then lost it back.

20:15:49 (43175) i cant believe i was kinda a millionare a few moments ago

Jesus. That's what happens when you get too greedy, though.

broolstoryco

member

Activity: 76

Merit: 10

Enemy of the State

Quote from: chriswen on September 29, 2013, 01:22:06 PM

Quote from: broolstoryco on September 29, 2013, 01:18:44 PM

Quote from: BitcoinLeader on September 29, 2013, 01:15:37 PM

So with 10 BTC investment you can theoretically earn 1.25 from 5K profit swing?

5000 / 40.000 * 10 = 1.25

Let's assume there will be 5 x 5k profit swings in a day, it could earn you about 6.25 Bitcoins with a 10 BTC investment if you step in and out at the right time.
This is without taking divesting fees into account.

theoretically. timing invest/divest is impossible, however (akin to predicting coinflips - dont get fooled by randomness)

Actually it could be possible. If you know there is going to be huge variance then you could invest low and divest high.

Of course you could be missing on profits but its better than losing money. If you know there is gonna be 1k btc profit swing you could make use of that.

no, you could not. you cannot predict the direction, even after a long winning/losing streak. yes you could decrease/increase your variance IF you knew when big bets are coming, but you would also be decreasing your expected value.

marcovaldo

sr. member

Activity: 350

Merit: 250

Quote from: mechs on September 29, 2013, 01:23:08 PM

Not sure where he started but he made several winning max bets back to back

Is it possible to check his bets?
How much does he have now?

mechs

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: marcovaldo on September 29, 2013, 01:20:30 PM

Quote from: integrity42 on September 29, 2013, 01:16:37 PM

What is happening is really unbelievable.

enhpad turned 50BTC into 2,300, then lost it back.

20:15:49 (43175) i cant believe i was kinda a millionare a few moments ago

Proof? I would be mad ...

Not sure where he started but he made several winning max bets back to back

chriswen

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

Quote from: broolstoryco on September 29, 2013, 01:18:44 PM

Quote from: BitcoinLeader on September 29, 2013, 01:15:37 PM

So with 10 BTC investment you can theoretically earn 1.25 from 5K profit swing?

5000 / 40.000 * 10 = 1.25

Let's assume there will be 5 x 5k profit swings in a day, it could earn you about 6.25 Bitcoins with a 10 BTC investment if you step in and out at the right time.
This is without taking divesting fees into account.

theoretically. timing invest/divest is impossible, however (akin to predicting coinflips - dont get fooled by randomness)

Actually it could be possible. If you know there is going to be huge variance then you could invest low and divest high.

Of course you could be missing on profits but its better than losing money. If you know there is gonna be 1k btc profit swing you could make use of that.

marcovaldo

sr. member

Activity: 350

Merit: 250

Quote from: integrity42 on September 29, 2013, 01:16:37 PM

What is happening is really unbelievable.

enhpad turned 50BTC into 2,300, then lost it back.

20:15:49 (43175) i cant believe i was kinda a millionare a few moments ago

Proof? I would be mad ...

nicolaennio

member

Activity: 99

Merit: 10

Quote from: broolstoryco on September 29, 2013, 01:10:37 PM

holy crap from -6k to +1 in minutes. insane. insane day.. half of volume from creation til yesterday was bet today..

Quote from: BitcoinLeader on September 29, 2013, 01:07:06 PM

Quote from: broolstoryco on September 29, 2013, 01:04:14 PM

Quote from: BitcoinLeader on September 29, 2013, 01:02:03 PM

Wow people retracted 10K bitcoins from their investments in a few hours.

em, we went from +5k to -6k, thats a 11k wipe in equity. it appears people are staying in..

I don't think the profit affects the equity?

not percentual, however the amount invested decreases/increases with loss/profit

Really, I feel spiritually changed.

broolstoryco

member

Activity: 76

Merit: 10

Enemy of the State

Quote from: BitcoinLeader on September 29, 2013, 01:15:37 PM

So with 10 BTC investment you can theoretically earn 1.25 from 5K profit swing?

5000 / 40.000 * 10 = 1.25

Let's assume there will be 5 x 5k profit swings in a day, it could earn you about 6.25 Bitcoins with a 10 BTC investment if you step in and out at the right time.
This is without taking divesting fees into account.

theoretically. timing invest/divest is impossible, however (akin to predicting coinflips - dont get fooled by randomness)

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

Quote from: chriswen on September 29, 2013, 01:14:47 PM

Quote from: Rampion on September 29, 2013, 11:55:18 AM

Quote from: mechs on September 29, 2013, 11:52:29 AM

Quote from: broolstoryco on September 29, 2013, 11:51:11 AM

3 player currently making 100btc+ bets, holy hell...

Don;t you wish the max profit was 1% so we could have even higher variance?

Mechs, you amaze me. You do realize that the more players we have doing near max profit bets the lesser variance we have, right?

And YES, I'd like to have full Kelly again, as 99% of investors who understand how math works.

If it hurts seeing your investment going up and down, don't invest in a casino, or invest less coins in it.

You known using half kelly is not uncommon?

Argumentum ad auctoritatem

Topic: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game - page 111. (Read 435457 times)