Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game - page 113.

mechs

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: rarefied on September 29, 2013, 11:57:49 AM

Quote from: Rampion on September 29, 2013, 11:55:18 AM

Quote from: mechs on September 29, 2013, 11:52:29 AM

Quote from: broolstoryco on September 29, 2013, 11:51:11 AM

3 player currently making 100btc+ bets, holy hell...

Don;t you wish the max profit was 1% so we could have even higher variance?

Mechs, you amaze me. You do realize that the more players we have doing near max profit bets the lesser variance we have, right?

And YES, I'd like to have full Kelly again, as 99% of investors who understand how math works.

No way, broseph. We won when we were at 1/4 Kelly and lost since we've been at 1/2 Kelly so LDO 1e-12 Kelly max bet will produce unlimited profits LOL :-P

The smaller the max bet, the more reliable the profits will converge on predicted value due to less variance - with the assumption that the total amount wagered remains unchanged. Of course, the total amount wagered would likely be less with a lower max profit so that assumption is likely false It a matter of variance tolerance and how much vaiance the bankroll and investors can support. We are seeing a lot of divestments now with big bids in. Is that fair to investors who stay invested, especially those who invest & forget and not happen to be online when whales come on?

mechs

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: geofflosophy on September 29, 2013, 11:56:56 AM

Quote from: mechs on September 29, 2013, 11:52:29 AM

Quote from: broolstoryco on September 29, 2013, 11:51:11 AM

3 player currently making 100btc+ bets, holy hell...

Don;t you wish the max profit was 1% so we could have even higher variance?

Yes...

My biggest problem with that is I do not think the bankroll supports so many large bets without a significant risk of ruin for the site. The gamblers won't gamble until the bankroll is 0 afterall, they are not a computer simulation. Between a combo of luck and fear divestments, they can break the bankroll to a very low level. When everything "settles down", those who divested and higher profits and new investors flock back in and dilute those investors who "stuck through it". We have a lot of invest & forget investors who rarely check the site and they are hurt by this effect significiantly.

integrity42

full member

Activity: 476

Merit: 100

This is a great day for investors, as the number of max bets grows, the variance decreases.... we're seeing nak doing thousands of bets at 171... i doubt we'll see -5000 again.

at the same time, 3 whales are playing.

enhpad (43175)
berathea (161188)
FFs Ownz (105829)

All making large bets

rarefied

newbie

Activity: 12

Merit: 0

Quote from: Rampion on September 29, 2013, 11:55:18 AM

Quote from: mechs on September 29, 2013, 11:52:29 AM

Quote from: broolstoryco on September 29, 2013, 11:51:11 AM

3 player currently making 100btc+ bets, holy hell...

Don;t you wish the max profit was 1% so we could have even higher variance?

Mechs, you amaze me. You do realize that the more players we have doing near max profit bets the lesser variance we have, right?

And YES, I'd like to have full Kelly again, as 99% of investors who understand how math works.

No way, broseph. We won when we were at 1/4 Kelly and lost since we've been at 1/2 Kelly so LDO 1e-12 Kelly max bet will produce unlimited profits LOL :-P

broolstoryco

member

Activity: 76

Merit: 10

Enemy of the State

500k wagered today, in expectation we are up 5k! Wink

geofflosophy

sr. member

Activity: 336

Merit: 250

Quote from: mechs on September 29, 2013, 11:52:29 AM

Quote from: broolstoryco on September 29, 2013, 11:51:11 AM

3 player currently making 100btc+ bets, holy hell...

Don;t you wish the max profit was 1% so we could have even higher variance?

Yes...

elm

legendary

Activity: 1050

Merit: 1000

Quote from: broolstoryco on September 29, 2013, 11:51:11 AM

3 player currently making 100btc+ bets, holy hell...

do You really believe those are 3 different players? or maybe it is one

Rampion

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1018

Quote from: mechs on September 29, 2013, 11:52:29 AM

Quote from: broolstoryco on September 29, 2013, 11:51:11 AM

3 player currently making 100btc+ bets, holy hell...

Don;t you wish the max profit was 1% so we could have even higher variance?

Mechs, you amaze me. You do realize that the more players we have doing near max profit bets the lesser variance we have, right?

And YES, I'd like to have full Kelly again, as 99% of investors who understand how math works.

If it hurts seeing your investment going up and down, don't invest in a casino, or invest less coins in it.

mechs

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: broolstoryco on September 29, 2013, 11:51:11 AM

3 player currently making 100btc+ bets, holy hell...

Don;t you wish the max profit was 1% so we could have even higher variance?

broolstoryco

member

Activity: 76

Merit: 10

Enemy of the State

3 player currently making 100btc+ bets, holy hell...

Rampion

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1018

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: nicolaennio on September 29, 2013, 11:24:10 AM

Guys I think I never knew what "variance" really was before looking at the swings in my profit on just-dice in these days :-D

You should try online poker. You ain't seen nothing yet!

Once I got AA pre-flop three times in a row, I went all in pre-flop the three times (buying in 100 BB each time), every time at least one player followed me, and I lost all three times - two times against weaker pocket pairs, one time against AQ.

What are the chances for that? I have the impression than much lower than getting lucky at J-D as Nakowa did. Variance is really huge in poker.

Rampion

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1018

Nakowa guy has been playing more than 8 hours non stop, took the site profit to +5k and then to -5k, now its again approaching 0 profit for the site. He has wagered BTC373,710.49268341 in this session only.

"I'm not a gambler" (Nakowa dixit)

Cheesy

nicolaennio

member

Activity: 99

Merit: 10

Quote from: Rampion on September 29, 2013, 11:25:47 AM

Quote from: nicolaennio on September 29, 2013, 11:24:10 AM

Guys I think I never knew what "variance" really was before looking at the swings in my profit on just-dice in these days :-D

You can also get a good idea by looking at a short timeframe network hashrate graph.

I wasn't meaning "looking" at a graph, but being actually on the "roller coaster" ;-)

integrity42

full member

Activity: 476

Merit: 100

Ok...

This should calm the nerves of all the investors... he's playing at 2x which means he wins if he goes LO and its under 49.5, or goes HI and its over 50.5

But what happens when the numbers between 49.5 and 50.5 come up? Its a guaranteed loss. betting LO or HI wouldn't help.

eventually, after many bets, the number of times he guess HI or LO will (not including the rolls between 49.5 and 50.5) will converge to exactly 50%. However, the losses on rolls between 49.5 and 50.5 will be permanently lost.

marcovaldo

sr. member

Activity: 350

Merit: 250

Quote from: BitcoinLeader on September 29, 2013, 11:22:59 AM

Who can I contact when I made a failed deposit? I forgot to enter my username in the TransactioN Note field.

It should be automatic.
Pm dooglus (OP)

Rampion

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1018

Quote from: nicolaennio on September 29, 2013, 11:24:10 AM

Guys I think I never knew what "variance" really was before looking at the swings in my profit on just-dice in these days :-D

You can also get a good idea by looking at a short timeframe network hashrate graph.

TheFuneral

sr. member

Activity: 356

Merit: 250

Quote from: BitcoinLeader on September 29, 2013, 11:04:11 AM

So now would be a wise time to invest?

then time to invest is always and asap.

nicolaennio

member

Activity: 99

Merit: 10

Guys I think I never knew what "variance" really was before looking at the swings in my profit on just-dice in these days :-D

BitcoinLeader

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Who can I contact when I made a failed deposit? I forgot to enter my username in the TransactioN Note field.

dalexc

member

Activity: 195

Merit: 10

Quote from: DiamondCardz on September 29, 2013, 11:13:26 AM

Quote from: dalexc on September 29, 2013, 10:21:47 AM

Quote from: elm on September 29, 2013, 10:05:14 AM

Quote from: dalexc on September 29, 2013, 10:00:41 AM

Quote from: elm on September 29, 2013, 09:48:49 AM

Quote from: dalexc on September 29, 2013, 09:31:12 AM

Quote from: elm on September 29, 2013, 09:27:45 AM

Quote from: oda.krell on September 29, 2013, 09:18:15 AM

Quote from: maxmint on September 29, 2013, 09:16:37 AM

So Nakowa is playing again at JD? Didn't he say he would quit to play there?

I think the word you're looking for is "compulsive gambler".

IMHO he is not a ...........CG , he knows what he is doing

You're crazy if you truly think that.

sorry but You are one of many dreamers here in this thread IMHO (no offense), with no clue what is possible in 2013

Then please enlighten me...

As a student of gambling, and one who personally know people to have made and lose millions of dollars I heard it all already...Please share. What exactly is this "system" he has. Martingale? That's a losing one. Did he "create" it? It's a loser as well. As long as the house has an edge in the long term he losing.

The only "system" is a cheating one.

The only "system" is a cheating one.
Agree 100% and please let me add that one should never neglect the possibility of a cheat!

could You please explain what it means to be a student of gambling? You are welcome to explain it with a PM

thanks

No need.

Took classes in college. Know people in the industry. Gambling comes down to two thing: The odds and the payouts. That's it. As long as the payout is less than the odds you are taking, in the long term you are loser.

A simple example. Rolling dice. If you pick one number, the odds are 1 in 6. To be even and fair, a casino should pay out 6x your bet. But casinos are a business and instead may only pay out 4x. That payout is what gives the casino the edge. This dice game is no different, but they are giving nearly 1:1 for your money and most professional gamblers would go crazy for a 1% edge. Craps, Baccarat, Blackjacks (you can have a +1% edge if you know how to count cards and the casino owners can ask you leave) having the lowest edge are some of the popular games people play.

While Nakowa can potentially make a fortune and bankrupt JD, it's far more probable with the 1% edge the house he won't the longer he plays. But it's clear he's a compulsive gambler and as one, I know he is going to fall victim to one of the basic elements of human nature: greed.

He can't win forever, but he will continue to play. Ultimately he will lose.

Not ultimately. If JD has a bad luck streak, a 1% edge isn't going to stop them from going bankrupt. Saying that, at the moment JD isn't that deep in negative profit, so it will probably make it's profit back.

Yes I made an admission that he can bankrupt JD.

As a career compulsive gambler, it's a losing profession. Sorry if I didn't make that clear.

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