Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game - page 152.

MikkisJ

member

Activity: 126

Merit: 11

Quote from: themagicdrake on September 23, 2013, 04:27:42 PM

Quote from: Bugpowder on September 23, 2013, 04:17:41 PM

Here is a simulation of someone betting the max bet on JD with an unlimited bankroll. After 2,000 max bets, how far up or down might they be? What would be the peak profit during that time? This is relevant for determining how lucky Nakowa is. Nakowa is up about 50 max bets at the moment, off of around 2000 max bets wagered.

so...you're saying there's a chance?

That is a very simplified calculation, that doesn't take into consideration a lot of factors. The probability of what is happening is very very low.

themagicdrake

newbie

Activity: 50

Merit: 0

Quote from: Bugpowder on September 23, 2013, 04:17:41 PM

Here is a simulation of someone betting the max bet on JD with an unlimited bankroll. After 2,000 max bets, how far up or down might they be? What would be the peak profit during that time? This is relevant for determining how lucky Nakowa is. Nakowa is up about 50 max bets at the moment, off of around 2000 max bets wagered.

so...you're saying there's a chance?

Bugpowder

sr. member

Activity: 394

Merit: 250

Here is a simulation of someone betting the max bet on JD with an unlimited bankroll. After 2,000 max bets, how far up or down might they be? What would be the peak profit during that time? This is relevant for determining how lucky Nakowa is. Nakowa is up about 50 max bets at the moment, off of around 2000 max bets wagered.

Matlab code

Code:

n= 50000
cutoff = 50
bets = sign(rand(n,2000)-.505);
outcomes = sum(bets,2);

sum(outcomes>cutoff)/n
sum(outcomes
intBets = cumsum(bets,2);
peak = max(intBets,[],2);

sum(peak>cutoff)/n
sum(peak
%%


figure(1);clf;set(gcf,'paperposition',[0 0 8 6])
hist(outcomes,50)
hold on
plot([cutoff cutoff],[0 5000],'r-')
ylabel('Number of outcomes')
xlabel('Profit (number of max bets above zero)')
title('Results of 2000 consecutive max bets, unlimited bankroll, (50,000 simulations)')
text(55,4000,['Chance of exeeding  = ' num2str(sum(outcomes>cutoff)/n)])

print(gcf,'-depsc', 'MaxBets1')

figure(2);clf;set(gcf,'paperposition',[0 0 8 6])
hist(peak,50)
hold on
plot([cutoff cutoff],[0 6000],'r-')
ylabel('Number of outcomes')
xlabel('Peak profit (number of max bets above zero)')
title('Results of 2000 consecutive max bets, unlimited bankroll, (50,000 simulations)')
set(gca,'xlim',[0 max(peak)])
text(55,5000,['Chance of exeeding = ' num2str(sum(peak>cutoff)/n)])
print(gcf,'-depsc', 'MaxBets2')

drawingthesun

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1015

If you want a positive. It is possible people will divest back down to 20,000 invested and then Nakowa may lose it all. This would represent a 50% gain for all investors that are still invested at that point.

Of course the negative is the site goes below 1000 coins before Nakowa goes broke and he gets bored because there is no money left on the site to win. Then its over.

andrew12

member

Activity: 67

Merit: 10

elm

legendary

Activity: 1050

Merit: 1000

read my lips - this is unreal

drawingthesun

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1015

4500 + (6400 -> - 5000 = 11,400)

= 16,000

Nakowa is now 16,000 bitcoin up.

Keyser Soze

sr. member

Activity: 470

Merit: 250

So new pic since he seems to have stopped for now.

http://i.imgur.com/2D6TBfJ.jpg

GOB

member

Activity: 94

Merit: 10

Come on!

Well, Nakowa (as 'Cake') just took the site down to -5000BTC profits.

This was what he said when he finished:

17:07:39 (145625) Maths is on my side. I hope I've proved 1% house edge is very dangerous... a long day's work.

I just wanted to leave a record of it here.

I don't actually have an opinion on this 1% vendetta he has. I'm still wondering if he has the server seeds and I will stay divested until I'm convinced he doesn't.

xchrisxsays

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

So... surely something has to change.

qxzn

hero member

Activity: 609

Merit: 505

holy %$*!sticks volatility

fun!

RationalSpeculator

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Quote from: Rampion on September 23, 2013, 11:58:26 AM

Quote from: maxmint on September 23, 2013, 05:13:57 AM

Nakowa is doing an AMA at reddit:
http://www.reddit.com/r/AMA/comments/1my8fc/im_the_whale_on_justdice_id_love_to_answer/

Best quote:

Quote from: nakowa-allover

I'm not a gambler as you might think

Yeah, sure, LOL

lol

Rampion

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1018

Quote from: maxmint on September 23, 2013, 05:13:57 AM

Nakowa is doing an AMA at reddit:
http://www.reddit.com/r/AMA/comments/1my8fc/im_the_whale_on_justdice_id_love_to_answer/

Best quote:

Quote from: nakowa-allover

I'm not a gambler as you might think

Yeah, sure, LOL

willphase

hero member

Activity: 767

Merit: 500

http://www.dailydot.com/news/biggest-bitcoin-win-gambling-history-nakowa/

Should mean more punters, especially if this story gets picked up by other tech websites.

Will

ajolly

newbie

Activity: 58

Merit: 0

Woo, I'm not *quite* as much in the red Wink

Jls.

newbie

Activity: 34

Merit: 0

Quote from: xchrisxsays on September 23, 2013, 11:15:49 AM

Well... If anyone was watching the last hour... Holy shit.

And the day is not over !

Keyser Soze

sr. member

Activity: 470

Merit: 250

His most recent run if anyone is interested.

http://i.imgur.com/8PtqkRV.jpg

xchrisxsays

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Well... If anyone was watching the last hour... Holy shit.

Deprived

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on September 23, 2013, 09:02:32 AM

Unbelievable.

As bullish as investors were only a week ago when profits were the highest ever, many now turn into bears withdrawing their investment, ofcourse after serious losses have already been made.

Whale(s) took 8000 btc past week (profit down from +6000 btc to -2000 btc), investors took another 12,000 btc out (investment down from 50,000 btc to 30,000 btc).

The same happened the other way around. For every 1000 btc profit made investment went up with 2000/3000 btc. Ofcourse after the profit was already made...

If you want to make money you really do have to be fearful when others are brave, and brave when others are fearful.

If you start doubting the fundamentals, discipline yourself to wait for an uptick before leaving the position. This way you protect yourself from panic selling.

Some withdrawals (e.g. mine) will be for unrelated reasons - i.e. BTC-TC closing. With that happening the DMS investment had to be pulled as part of getting it fullt liqud (and with a fixed NAV/U) and my own had to be pulled because a lot of my other liquid BTC was used in buying my own securities out fast at full value and I have other commitments I need to meet in the short-term.

thy

hero member

Activity: 685

Merit: 500

Hot wallet is out of funds, withdraws don't go throu at the moment.

Topic: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game - page 152. (Read 435358 times)