Topic: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game - page 222. (Read 435362 times)

After long discussion in the chat room... 1% max bet optimizes the geometric mean of the investment profit. See my monte Carlo sim on page 30. Or wikipedia Kelly criterion.

If u want less risk, invest less and rebalance often.  If you want more, you are moving to a suboptimal strategy if a whale is hammering the max.

It's not clear what the SDICE bankroll is, but there have been claims that it is 6100 BTC.  They often risk more than that on a single roll.  That means they have >100% exposure, compared to JD's 1%.


The client seed is the bet's txid.  Very provably fair.


I don't think that's a fair criticism.  You control your deposit txid.  Or can if you want to.  The site certainly doesn't.


Notice that all other sites have the same issue.  SDICE has investors via their shares.  CoinRoll has at least one investor that I know of, though it's a personal arrangement, not done on-site.  When you invest in anything you have to trust the person managing the investment not to steal from it and lie to you about where the money went.


I think we're having a run of bad luck at the moment.  The presence of a whale on the site is a good thing.  He can't keep winning forever, and seems determined enough that he'll keep playing when he's losing.  It also proves to other potential players that the site is legit, that people can win, and that we pay out.  I think it's great for the site, so long as the investors don't panic and deplete the bankroll.  But even if they do, the max bet will reduce automatically to 1% of the remaining bankroll, and so the whole game just scales down.

I'm still invested, despite being 112 BTC down on my investment at the current point in time.  Last time I looked I was 150 BTC down.  It's making me nauseous watching the whale play and win, but I have faith that the house edge will ultimately assert itself.  Damned scary though.



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The what about investing less? Less invested, less losses.

What about investing less? I think the current system is good.

Yes, this is exactly what variance means...

i think high max profit is what attracts whales, more whales means bigger swings but also higher EV, keep it as it is

What!? Whales are here? I smell IPO...

If you only want to risk 0.2% then you already can.

Just withdraw 80% of your investment.  It's not exactly the same but very nearly so AND you gain the advantage that 80% of your funds are now in your own wallet with zero CP risk.

There's way too much results-oriented thinking in this thread.  When the house went up a lot early it was all "Increase the risk % I want to risk more!".  Now the house is down it's all "Lower the risk % I want to lose less!".  When none of the risks have changed.

The calls for allowing higher risk exposure had some merit - as there's no way to do that yourself.  But the ones to lower risk percent are stupid as people can achieve that already just by managing their own funds rather than wanting someone else to do everything for them.

A voting mechanism already exists.  If you like the site's setup, invest in the house's bank roll.  If you don't like it, don't invest.

Aside from that, feel free to ramble on here about whatever you like and keep your fingers crossed that Doog' is going to read your posts.  I think that's fair seeing as Doog' is the one that set the whole thing up.

I agree, should be relative to investment total.  Say 0.2% would be a 50BTC max at current bankroll.  Would still be better than all competitors except SD, but the other advantages of JD would still overall make this a better place for players (lower bank edge, real-time betting, more provably fair)

somewhere between 0.1%-0.5% would be great.

This.
This is not the type of investment where you invest for a few days and expect to be up, you have to be in it for the medium/long term.

It should be relative to the investment total.  Not only does it encourage investors, also it provide a stableness and it reduce the change needed. Else we have to change our rules daily

We could make the max payout be 25 BTC and we will still be ahead of the competition overall

I guess doog should make a vote for us all investors to select what would be the best max for the site. Swings are too crazy.... at least for me. and for ameture investors, they would be afraid of JD and get of it forever

Im wondering if max bet profit should be lowered....

it seems that lowering the max bet profit might incentivize investors to encourage others to invest as well, in order to raise the max bet profit, and it might reduce some of these massive swings...

*Revised based on comments from Dabs"

I think Dooglas needs to make some changes to the system.  It is too high risk to the investors.  Currently we have a 1% edge with a 1% of bankroll max payout per bet.  Compared to competitors such as satoshi dice, primedice and coinroll.it we are superior in everyway, too much so actually and we should make some parameters more conservative. We are amazing for gamblers but not a good deal for investors currently.

The current setup would be fine over infinite time with infinite bankroll, but at the far more finite #s involved, the system breaks down for investors:

Primedice: 1% edge, 20 BTC max payout?(website faq says 5BTC), slow betting versus J-D (since done via deposit addresses), spams the blockchain, less provably fair than Just-Dice since server seed changes only daily, unclear how the client seed is generated

Satoshi Dice: 1.9% edge, 500BTX max payout (though at 50% is only 463), slow betting versus J-D (since done via deposit addresses) and spams the blockchain, less provably fair than Just-Dice since seed changes only daily and unclear where client seed chosen from

Coinroll.it: 1% edge, Not sure what is the max payout, real-time betting similar to J-D, less provably fair than J-D since since uses the last depost tx ID as client seed

Just-Dice: 1% Edge, Max Payout per Bet is 1% of bankroll (now down to 254BTC), Real-time fast Betting (20 bets/second max), most provably fair system put there.  Can re-randomize both the client and server seed at will (every bet if wish).  Can actually enter your own client seed if you do not want to use the one generated by the server.  Plus, I would argue the OP is one of the most reputable people on bitcointalk.  An additional plus is it allows open investing.  The negative is it is not provably fair to investors at all - need to simply trust the OP who knows both the client and server seed and could use shill accounts to steal from investors.

From a gamblers perspective, the investor's risks in Just-Dice are a non-issue other than if they lose enough investors the bankroll will be so low that betting will be restricted and site may eventually fail.  

I do not think we need to be as far ahead in fairness to players in relation to the other sites as we current are.  We should either increase the House Edge or decrease the max payout or both.  If the bankroll were much larger (say 1 million bitcoin) we could continue as is, but with the current size bankroll, having no max payout with a 1% edge at 20 bets/second is very risky for investors.  Also, some attempt should be taken to make the system more provably fair to investors (though I do not think Dooglas is cheating)

Anybody complaining about variance shouldnt be investing into venue like this. I think everything is just about right

Where does primedice get the client seeds from?  Also, it must be slower than JD and coinroll.it since it uses bitcoin deposit addresses for wagering which is far from real-time and not blockchain friendly.
I got the 5BTC max payout from their faq, maybe it is out-of-date?
Still my point is the same