ID: 954
Lets play.
Topic: Just-Dice.com : now with added CLAMs : Play or Invest - page 231. (Read 454540 times)
ID:
1461
1461
dooglus you should have ran an investment site 
3100 bitcoins in just 3 days.
BTW how is "luck" calculated? Is that the house edge? And is it on a daily basis?
3100 bitcoins in just 3 days. BTW how is "luck" calculated? Is that the house edge? And is it on a daily basis?
It's calculated bet-by-bet. And it's the number of bets that have been won expressed as a percentage of the number that you would expect to be won.
So if you play a 10% chance-of-winning game 2000 times and win 200 times (as expected) you get luck=100%. If you only win 180 times, the luck is 90%.
The problem is when people play the 0.0001% game (one in a million chance). Each time they lose (which is almost every time), the luck drops a bit. Then when they win, the luck jumps right up. It has been won twice already (see milestone list) in less than 2 million tries, so the overall luck is well over 100%, even though the bets themselves are mostly insignificant, being all single-satoshi bets.
If anyone can think of a better way of calculating "how lucky" the players have been (individually, and as a whole) I'd love to hear it!
i would go with moving averages alongside "total forever" ...
as long as you have those windows (1 hour, 24 hours of luck, 3 days of luck) the overall luck doesn't matter as much when off kilter.
it would be nice to see
total luck 160%, last hour 90%, 3 hours 101%, 24 hours, 200%
etc
Here's how to make people who invested earlier gain more:
Imaging a user bid 1 BTC on 50/50. This means, out of the pool of JD, 1 BTC is wagered against him (well, actually 0.99 BTC but for simplicity I put 1).
The question is: whose BTC is being wagered against the user? Right now, it is taken from all the investements in equal proportion. What can be done instead, is that it is taken from all investments *weighted* by the time they invested they made the investment. For example, 1/5 BTC from the first month's investments, 1/4 form the second etc. In fact, better use slower decreasing weights to make the investement attractive for new users as well. For example, [1/k(k+1) - 1/N(N+1)] weight for the BTC number k, with N being total number BTC invested.
Obviously, the wins/losses then are devided in this proportions.
Imaging a user bid 1 BTC on 50/50. This means, out of the pool of JD, 1 BTC is wagered against him (well, actually 0.99 BTC but for simplicity I put 1).
The question is: whose BTC is being wagered against the user? Right now, it is taken from all the investements in equal proportion. What can be done instead, is that it is taken from all investments *weighted* by the time they invested they made the investment. For example, 1/5 BTC from the first month's investments, 1/4 form the second etc. In fact, better use slower decreasing weights to make the investement attractive for new users as well. For example, [1/k(k+1) - 1/N(N+1)] weight for the BTC number k, with N being total number BTC invested.
Obviously, the wins/losses then are devided in this proportions.
one issue with this is that a common pattern could be:
divest all
gamble
invest all
I don't see how that could be a problem. If you divest and then reinvest then of course your investement moves all the way to the end of the line, and will be earning less. Wheter you gamble in between doesn't matter.
it is a problem because you're moving my investment out of the line, when i clearly wish to remain an investor and i was an early investor.
the flipside would be having the ability to just gamble with investment as though it were deposited and not "withdraw". investing/divesting is then flagging which of your funds are eligible for use by the site's bankroll and subject to gains/losses via site profit %, and all of it is eligible for wagering with.
i would do that if that were an option. of course, that is easier said than done since the auth works off of divesting, etc.
ID: 1425
Looks much more interesting than the previous dice sites, I'll check it out ID: 670
Hi , i want the bitcent, id :1353
The site just received another big investment. We can now offer a max profit of 49.57 BTC per roll.
Currently the site forces investors to manage their bankroll responsibly, and only allows them to risk 1% of it against each player roll. I'm working on a change which will allow them to specify their own risk management strategy, so the braver investors will be able to risk a considerably larger percentage of their bankroll per diceroll.
It will be interesting to see how that goes down.
I've also added the ability to lock your account against withdrawal and/or divesting without contacting me via email with a GPG signed authorisation. This is irreversible once enabled, and I'll charge a small fee per email request to discourage people from bothering me too frequently. If you would like it enabled for your account, contact me via PM, we'll meet in the site chat and make it so.
Paid these last two:
84 2013-06-22 23:08:13 (1) manually crediting user 1314 with amount 0.01 Oliverdjob
85 2013-06-22 23:09:04 (1) manually crediting user 1312 with amount 0.01 mcb1221
Currently the site forces investors to manage their bankroll responsibly, and only allows them to risk 1% of it against each player roll. I'm working on a change which will allow them to specify their own risk management strategy, so the braver investors will be able to risk a considerably larger percentage of their bankroll per diceroll.
It will be interesting to see how that goes down.
I've also added the ability to lock your account against withdrawal and/or divesting without contacting me via email with a GPG signed authorisation. This is irreversible once enabled, and I'll charge a small fee per email request to discourage people from bothering me too frequently. If you would like it enabled for your account, contact me via PM, we'll meet in the site chat and make it so.
Paid these last two:
84 2013-06-22 23:08:13 (1) manually crediting user 1314 with amount 0.01 Oliverdjob
85 2013-06-22 23:09:04 (1) manually crediting user 1312 with amount 0.01 mcb1221
Account number 1314!
user 1312
cant wait to check it out
cant wait to check it out
I think the statistic you're describing is "profit". Or maybe "profit/wagered". If you take stake into account then the players luck is directly proportional to his profit/loss. I was aiming for something which was independent of stake, so we can see things like "I had a really unlucky set of rolls, but my martingale betting still let me make a profit". And such.
I like the current "definition" of luck, which should be, in my opinion, independent of amount wagered. The outcome is always the same regardless of whether the bet is 1 satoshi or 10 bitcoins. Increasing the wager should never affect the chance of winning (or vice versa)
user id 1300
this looks like it could be interesting
ill have to ask some of my gambling buddies what they think
this looks like it could be interesting
ill have to ask some of my gambling buddies what they think
I would be interested to hear their feedback. I think almost all the people who have seen it so far are primarily "bitcoin people" rather than "gambling people", and so have a different set of expectations.
I'm expecting the interface is too cluttered and confusing for most, but would like to hear it all the same.
Edit:
82 2013-06-22 20:30:46 (1) manually crediting user 1301 with amount 0.01 Rippyzippers
83 2013-06-22 20:31:23 (1) manually crediting user 1300 with amount 0.01 wolverine.ks
If anyone can think of a better way of calculating "how lucky" the players have been (individually, and as a whole) I'd love to hear it!
Somehow relate the luck to the wagered amount, so a single win with 1 satoshi on 0.0001% does not get the site's luck up from 50% to 250%.
I think the statistic you're describing is "profit". Or maybe "profit/wagered". If you take stake into account then the players luck is directly proportional to his profit/loss. I was aiming for something which was independent of stake, so we can see things like "I had a really unlucky set of rolls, but my martingale betting still let me make a profit". And such.
btw, dooglus, since you are holding investors' coins on the site, can you add a section in the FAQ about security measures you take?
A typical investor wants to be reassured his money won't be lost due to one of those hacks so frequent in the btc world.
also, ID 1228.
A typical investor wants to be reassured his money won't be lost due to one of those hacks so frequent in the btc world.
also, ID 1228.
I just did so before reading your post. See the FAQ tab. There's a link to the cold storage address page, and a description of my plans for proof of ownership that I will implement in the future.
Also,
78 2013-06-22 18:30:31 (1) manually crediting user 1262 with amount 0.01 mprep
79 2013-06-22 18:31:16 (1) manually crediting user 1263 with amount 0.01 SwiftHF
80 2013-06-22 18:32:12 (1) manually crediting user 1283 with amount 0.01 uncaer9
81 2013-06-22 20:26:27 (1) manually crediting user 1228 with amount 0.01 trout
user id 1300
this looks like it could be interesting
ill have to ask some of my gambling buddies what they think
this looks like it could be interesting
ill have to ask some of my gambling buddies what they think
Nice site!
Would love to try some rolls, ID : 1301
Cheers!
Would love to try some rolls, ID : 1301
Cheers!
If anyone can think of a better way of calculating "how lucky" the players have been (individually, and as a whole) I'd love to hear it!
Somehow relate the luck to the wagered amount, so a single win with 1 satoshi on 0.0001% does not get the site's luck up from 50% to 250%.
btw, dooglus, since you are holding investors' coins on the site, can you add a section in the FAQ about security measures you take?
A typical investor wants to be reassured his money won't be lost due to one of those hacks so frequent in the btc world.
also, ID 1228.
A typical investor wants to be reassured his money won't be lost due to one of those hacks so frequent in the btc world.
also, ID 1228.
No. Let's say you are really good at this game.
You take away your 1000BTC investment. Now you use your gambling skills to win back all the other investments with your 1000BTC. You know have, let's say, 2000BTC.
You now own the entire bankroll. You invest it all. Congratulations. You own all the site's money.
well, if you can "use your skills" to win 1000 BTC (having only 1000BTC to begin with), then you can just go on and become infinitely rich.
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