Topic: KanoPool kano.is lowest 0.9% fee 🐈 since 2014 - Worldwide - 2432 blocks - page 1095. (Read 5352229 times)

Well, more fun than shoveling snow, we I will finally go out and do now (after that drink) 
Mine on!

Heh jonnybravo0311 you made a mistake in there, you left 'next' out before '3' in the last line.

Don't forget there's 2 different questions.
1) The next 3 blocks
2) 3 blocks in a row.

The actual reason why I gave the stats at the bottom of the last page is coz it makes it glaringly obvious that indeed the first block (with no specification of 'when') is a 1 in 1 chance
No way could we have done it (2 in a row) 40 times if the first block wasn't 1 in 1.

Stats are fun are they not?

Yep, I get it now. Three heads in row any time in future, once I have flipped that first head, (which is the ONLY flip that I am assigning probability of 1)
1 x .25 x .25

Ok, I need a drink now  

[edit] Thanks for helping with explanation JohnnyBravo

It's the "in a row" bit that matters.  Forget about blocks and use your coin example.

Probability of me getting heads on a flip?  50%.
Probability of me getting 2 heads in a row? .5 *.5 = .25 = 25%
Probability of me getting 3 heads in a row? .5 * .5 * .5 = .125 = 12.5%

At the end of each flip, the probability of me getting heads on the next flip remains 50% because as you correctly wrote, the coin has no memory.

Now if we go back to blocks and assume we have 1% of the world's hash, then we have a 1% chance of finding the next block.  Finding the next 2 blocks in a row is .01 * .01 = .0001 chance.  Finding the next three in a row is .01 * .01 * .01 = 0.000001 - exactly as Phil wrote in his comment.  Remember, after every block find (regardless of who found it) I always have a 1% chance of finding the next one.  So, even if I've already found the previous 2 blocks, I've still got a 1% shot of finding this next one.  It's just that the probability of me finding the 3 in a row is 1 in 1,000,000.

3 blocks (for a 1% pool, any time in the future) is as Phil said

1/100 x 1/100
= 1/10000

= 1 x 1/100 x 1/100

@Kano:
I am now as confused as can be about probability statistics. I'm no expert, by any stretch of the imagination, but I clearly remember from Statistics 1 class (over 40 years ago!), that the probability of flipping a coin and getting 2 heads in a row = probability of flipping a head x probability of flipping a head. That is, .5 x .5 = .25
However, once I have flipped a head, then probability of flipping another head (for two in a row) is simply .25 (the coin has no memory of what happened before). So I guess what you are saying regarding finding 2 blocks in a row is that we assume we can find a block (flip a head), and once we do, then the probability of finding the next block is simply our given probability (based on our percent of total network hash) that we can find a block.
Then would it not hold true that once we find 2 blocks in a row, that the probability of finding the third block is also our given probability of finding a block? This is where my brain gets tied in a knot.

Anyway, as Carl says, After 20+ hours of not finding any blocks, I'd be happy with find that 1st block!  
Mine on!

[edit] Oh wait! I think I get the difference now. We are only assuming that it is a given that we can find 1 block, and only 1 block.  We are never assumining we can find 2 in a row (never assuming we can flip two heads in a row).

   This is why computer genie is brilliant  and  one of the most skilled trolls I have ever seen.  I find I am being discouraged  to post correct info on block odds by his clever postings. Kano did you ever watch Peter Falk in Columbo?  Computer genie is a true master of Detective Columbo's playing dumb method.  He got you going correct? 



MEANWHILE  back to the thread  more blocks please.

I said this in my first post about it, that anyone can still see:

I then pointed that out to you in your second reply telling me I'm wrong.


Then again you posted telling me how that isn't correct ... and 2 more stupid posts about it after that.

So I deleted it all - it was a waste of, what ended up being, 6 posts, and again pointless like before.

I don't care if you want to twist your words around so that you can pretend you didn't get it wrong.
It's yet again been a waste of my time for a while today ...

Edit: yay up to 8 posts now ...

Edit2: read my post at the bottom of the previous page ... it explains why finding a block is a 1 in 1 chance ... then reread it ... then reread it ... then keep doing it until either a) you understand it or b) you've given up and will go away and stop posting garbage.

Yea, I'll be happy with just the first one right about now 

Nope. It's correct.
When you find a block, you've ... found a block already.
In the first case, there's no requirements on finding the first block ... it's just some time in the future.

Edit: to avoid littering the thread with garbage again:

I'll step off the big numbers and give an example with smaller numbers.
We'll use 2 instead of 3 ...

What are the chances that a 1% pool will find 2 blocks in a row.
1/100

Why? Coz the assumption is that you can find one block.

Once you've found one block you have specified something about finding a second block ... "It's in a row"
i.e. "block 2" is the next block after "block 1"
We didn't specify anything about "block 1", except the assumption that we can find a block.

So this leads to the fact that, if we can find a block, then the probability of finding a block is ... 1
Now there's a minor adjustment to that:
We may not find a block.
However, since we've effectively been given infinite time to find a block, the probability is 'almost 1'
So for the purpose of the question, it's assumed to be ... 1

So the chances of finding 2 blocks in a row is 1 x 1/100 = 1/100

Next:
What are the chances that a 3% pool will find 2 blocks in a row.
3/100 or 1/33.333...


Lets pretend I don't know what I'm talking about
1/33.333... x 1/33.333... = 1/1111.111...

So that would say we really should have only maybe found 2 in a row, about once or twice, maybe three times if we were quite lucky.

Checking the history of the pool ... OMG ... we've done it ... lotsa times! Not once or twice or thrice.

To be exact it's ...  40 times!



Ego: something is wrong ... ah it's this:
"Lets pretend I don't know what I'm talking about
1/33.333... x 1/33.333... = 1/1111.111..."

That needs an edit  
"Three in a row, ever" means: "I need to find one, then I need to find 2 more"
"Three in a row, including this one" means: "I found one; now, I need to find 2 more"
You do get how impossible it is to find "3 in a row" without ever finding the 1st one, right?
I'm simply saying that to "find 3 in a row" is not grammatically, or mathematically, the same as "finding 2 more after you've found 1". (to which you prattle on about how many times we've for 2 in a row [which has nothing to do with 3 in a row])

yep  and more hash = lower odds.


if you have 1%  of the worlds hash  your odds are 1/100 x 1/100 or 10,000 to one   of  ever  pulling 3 in a row

if you have 1% of the worlds hash your odds are 1/100 x 1/100 x 1/100 or 1,000,000 of pulling the next 3  in a row

Thanks Kano. Very interesting. So seeing pool pulling many block In-A-Row is just luck I guess.

That depends on how well connected the pool is.
The problem is actually if they are not well connected, they will get more orphans.

So the smaller the time until every other pool knows about your block, the better.
It is not to your advantage to hide or delay the fact you found a block ...

Having 'extra' time to mine a block is not an advantage.
That 'extra' time is very small ('should' be less than 1 second) but it's not 'extra' time as such, it's actually time for some other pool to get into an orphan race with you by finding a block at the same height, which is, of course, bad.

What are the known specs on this beast ?

Slush just pull 3 in-a-row I did not think this was still possible at the current worldwide hashing rate and difficulty. Question: When a block is found on the network, obliviously the pool that mined it is the first to know and first to mine a new block!. How long does it take for the other pool to be notified ? and is this a real factor 

There he is (canaan) back to 2,650.97THs
Wow

Oh, yes that's me
You'll also see me in the Workers menu under K.Workers and K.Graph, which shows that I turn the miners on and off 'almost' randomly.

Kano, is this you? I'm going to pass you . I'm loving this pool!
http://i1308.photobucket.com/albums/s604/Oh337/IMG_6148_zpsthqnkscq.jpg