They're operating 1.5PH of hashing power so they're no dummies like me when it comes to the math. It's more of a hedge. Pass performance does not guarantee future results is what they will say, but I'm selling it based on the community / developers. So far they have committed 200TH out of the 1.5PH, I'm pretty certain the rest will come once they see the results for sure. Right now they are just testing the tools and functionalities. My project is supposed to support the next 500TH expansion but I seem to have the worst of luck when it comes to this ever lasting POWER upgrade delays. Been Pitching ZACHM's tools, they like that.
P.S Stay tune for my 3D printed project. Some very cool work on Exhaust fan cooling and customization. We need to get Kano to be at least 10% of the network, so that we can help do our part on the decentralization even though it's just a fraction. Bitcoin will be worthless if it's just controlled by 1 group.
Well if they are mining PPS elsewhere, then the simple answer is that indeed, on PPLNS it's expected results vs PPS fixed results.
With PPS, yes they would have a fixed result but that would, of course, be lower than the expected result here.
If, however, you are comparing PPLNS to PPLNS, then the pool size here now is large enough that the variance should be negligible for anyone except on rare occasions for someone who has to pay their electricity bill more than once a week
(Edit: just to put that into perspective: the pretty bad luck we had in 'red october' of around 50% luck for 12 blocks over 31 days, would now equate to about 5-6 days of 50% luck, due to the increase in the size of the pool. As the pool grows, that 5-6 number will continue to decrease)
The advantage here is that the expected results are high due to:
1) Pool fee is only 0.9%
2) Reward includes all txn fees, and over the last 100 blocks that has more than covered the pool fee (101% txn fee average)
3) Pool orphans/lost blocks are, currently, 2 out of 463 or 0.43%, and considering our block change times, it seems the actual expected % could even still be lower
Using those 3 numbers you get an expected reward of 101.0% * 99.1% * 99.57% = 99.66%
(completely ignoring block finding luck)
Of course block finding luck is just that, luck, and past luck has no effected on future luck,
however, the fact that we have had, long term, greater than 100% luck means the rather important point, that the pool itself is not at fault causing negative luck
What do I mean by this? Well simply that if we had a year of bad luck (e.g. low 90's%) , it's gonna be pretty hard to explain that with statistics even with a pool the size we've had over the past year (let alone with a larger pool); instead, such long term bad luck would really suggest that there is something wrong with the pool.
However, that hasn't been the case. Not only have we been well above the low 90's% and thus well within acceptable results for luck, we've been above 100%, suggesting quite clearly that there's nothing in the way the pool works holding back luck.
Yes we've had periods of good and bad luck, and as stated before, the effect on rewards of the bad (and good) luck has been reduced by the pool's growth, but even as we have grown, we've seen no problems with luck changing over the month or 2, it's just continued to be random as before, and fortunately, better than expected