Actually the pools luck has been VERY VERY bad for some time, several months now...
There is nothing like joining a new pool when they are having a stretch of high variance.
I've been mining at various levels and in various pools for about 3 years. If you look back at past block rewards on Kano you will see that there can be 35% variance month to month in a pool of this size. So for every month of 135% PPS there will be a month of 65% PPS. You're going to have to mine in a pool of this size far longer than a month for the stats to even out. We have recently put upwards of 1PH into the pool and the luck over the last 3 weeks or so has been fairly low. Combined with pretty much having to babysit the farm 24/7 in this ridiculous October heat wave in Virginia, it's certainly been a tough patch watching the machines run hour after hour, sometimes day after day with no block reward. But that's raw mining. When we decided to give up our nice daily payouts in a huge PPS+ pool for a small 90PH PPLNS pool we knew the variance would be very high and we did our payout estimations for 1 year of mining. At 1PH we hope to take 40BTC out of Kano over the next year and it doesn't really matter when or how it comes. We invested $185,000 into our tiny little farm, and we are banking all the coin mined and subsidising the monthly power consumption as an additional capital expense. We made sure when we did this that those operational costs would be covered so it would not be necessary to cash out BTC along the way to pay for them. We've invested a great deal of resources into this and our choice to point our hash at Kano was far from arbitrary or based on past performance or favorable reports from other members. We didn't do it thinking we would 'try it out and see what happens over the next couple of weeks'. Here's our little PitA farm:
I have mined in slush and other PPLNS pools for periods of time before and their variance is just as high, it just gets evened out by the more frequent blocks at lower rewards. There is a point where a pool becomes so small relative to the total that payout variance will exceed any reasonable time frame set for a mining return but Kano is far from that level. While there is no guarantee, I hope Kano to give us a 2-3% higher return than in a PPS pool over the next year. I would suggest that it is not the math that is a problem, but the expectation of immediate results. I've run a few businesses over the years, and you have to have a certain focus to endure large capital expenditures that result in losses for 2, maybe 3 years before the business actually turns a profit and then takes 3 more years to recoupe the original capital expenditures and losses. Mining is very much the same way.
If you need more regular, smaller payouts, this is probably not the pool for you. Time is money for sure, but that too is relative. Playing the long game has always been the winner in my experience. Patience bro, patience.
Hey, just my two cents.