If I have BTC sitting in a wallet doing nothing versus the opportunity to participate in a marketplace that has proven liquidity and a track record of performance along with mining proceeds it would seem rational to put it into the marketplace. Of course, I would need to have a reasonable expectation that the aggregate return from mining and subsequent disposal of the GH/s will exceed my total investment. Price paid for the GH/s becomes less important than total return on invested capital. It amounts to a timing issue and you better know what you are doing if you are trying to time a market.
One would think that the price trajectory of GH/s on CEX.io would be deterministic and downward as a function of the increase in difficulty but it seems that this is not strictly the case. Other forces are at play
Say what you like about CEX.IO but it appears that they have done a good job and provide a service the community values. And, now I have another ticker to watch......
As did Bitcoinica, until they didn't. Then GLBSE, Inputs.io...
I'm not saying CEX.io are a bunch of scammers, but there are some red flags. Even if there weren't, buying 500GH/s on CEX.io simply isn't comparable to having a KNC Jupiter or similar in your possession. Ignoring the counterparty risk that's introduced with using such a service is bad business.
I agree wholeheartedly - apologies if I was not sufficiently clear in my point.... Simply put, it makes more sense to put ones reserve BTC into something like CEX.IO as long as you are willing to monitor the account to ensure the total position does not drop below an acceptable rate of return for the risk. If LRM were to do it is my opinion that it be done solely on this basis in order to maximize returns on BTC held for future use. Once analysis indicates that a better return from investment can be derived from buying new gear then, based on its track record, CEX.IO provides sufficient liquidity to transition out of the position in a timely fashion. Clearly we would not want to hold a too large a position for the market to absorb a rapid liquidation. My estimation based on recent volumes is that such position should not exceed more than 5% - 10% of daily volume which would presently indicate not more than
BTC78 -
BTC156. The range would of course be contingent on the timeline for liquidation. The more time to liquidate the larger the position.
Clearly we have no insight as to the BTC reserves held by LRM if any and the pipeline of gear inbound. Without this information we can only speculate as to an optimal strategy.... hopefully such musings add value to the ongoing discussion.