I did some simpler math relating to how likely an ROI would be for even the lowest purchase price of bonds at
BTC0.15
Anyone want to refute this, please try:
The assumed variables are 70% difficulty increase per month, and a constant btc value ($140 by MtGox).
With an assumed perfect re-investment plan of 25%. Let's reduce the difficulty to a very generous 52.5% per month.
Sure, difficulty will taper off, but don't expect that to happen within the first months that 28nm's are
starting to ship. So, seeing this kind of consistent difficulty gain into the middle of 2014 is very possible if not probable. Remember, BFL probably won't ship in bulk until February.
Based on that, with a zero cost for Bitfury hardware, we see (here:
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/9dbdb5cf20 ) that at the end of May 2014 you have $13,100.
Subtract the first two weeks of October 2013 when you don't have equipment, and you have: $13,100 - $2390 = $10,710. Which is
BTC76.5 in revenue per rig. So, that is the best case scenario for revenues from a Bitfury October rig received in mid-October up to the end of May. Any revenue after that is negligible because of difficulty.
There are
about 50,000 bonds receiving dividends. That means each Bitfury rig received in mid-October (an optimal outlook) will have generated
BTC76.5/50,000bonds =
BTC0.00153/bond by end of May 2014. Take out the 25% for Labrat's fee and any re-investment, and you have
BTC0.00153/bond x 75% =
BTC0.0011475/bond PER Bitfury rig purchased.
The cheapest new issued bonds were purchased with bitcoins was
BTC0.15
To make back the bond cost, you would need
BTC0.15/
BTC0.0011475 = 130 Bitfury rigs all operating from mid-October.
130 rigs is 52TH of equipment. But LR's current estimate for hardware is over 30TH. But how much over 30TH will it be?
Some of that is in Monarchs. Monarchs won't bulk ship until January or February of 2014.
Does anyone else see this as a problem besides me? Keep in mind, I was being conservative with the re-investment plan being perfectly 25% (part of the 25% would be an unknown LR fee).
Banking on reselling bonds? What would your bonds be generating in May 2014: ($210/mo/rig * 130 rigs)/50,000bonds = 55 cent/month per bond. What would you pay for such a bond?
By the way, I'm not trying to bash. I actually think LR is trying to make it work. I simply don't see how it's going to work now - unless LR has some insane deals on hardware and is being ultra-conservative on the hash power by at least 40% to 50%.
Before, I was thinking the bond prices would go up based on dividends, but I'm not so sure anymore based on the above longer term outlook. So, I was probably wrong with my high ratio speculations. Sorry to anyone that might have considered that speculation, which now seems to me as too optimistic.
