Topic: Lab Rat Data Processing, LLC (LabRatMining) Official Announcement - page 239. (Read 452180 times)

holding steady at 4.55Th going to be a bumper dividend this week

I think ~700 is about right for the extra from what I remember...

looks like christmas will come early.. Your doing a great job Lat_Rat.... I think were going to look back in a few weeks and realize that .17 a bond was a GREAT deal......

I wonder if this means the order for hardware was placed recently.

Looks like Dave from Bitfury has added his promisted 400 GH plus more tonight - currently over 4.3 TH with some readings at 4.5. Am curious if this is all from Dave as this represents an increase of up to 700 GH

Why? Are a lot of relatives going to be receiving LRM bonds for Christmas?! 

Yes, that would indeed be awesome. It's also the exact thing I said two posts above yours was daft to expect...  

The BTC/USD rate will determine how much hashing power can be purchased and also the profit we get(if we cash out).  

The cost of BTC on July 16th was $93
The USD cost per bond was 93*.15 = 13.95

The cost of BTC now is $140
The USD cost per bond is 140*.18 =  25.2

If BTC hits 200 USD by Dec then its going to be a good christmas

I think if LRM can keep up with the difficulty when the 30ths comes in would be awesome. But, in reality, that will be tough to do, at least in the short term. I cant wait til that 30ths comes online and it would be great if it came online in the very near future. I guess we will find out soon.....

I think when you factor in difficulty, the dividends won't go up with new bond sales...unless he can get more hashing power per dollar while taking into account difficulty increase. Of course, that goes for profitability, so to speak, where bitcoin value would also need to be taken into account. But...we probably should measure things in bitcoins, since that is what bonds are priced in.

FML.


Maybe indeed.

I didn't say it wouldn't, I'm just pointing out that a) bonds sales might help, they might not, but it's not a given, and b) even when the theoretical hashrate/bond goes up from IPO sales, the dividends still go down in the short-term, where the length of that term is defined by the purchase-to-delivery latency, which at the moment is bonkers.

And finally, the arms race will end. Yes, you want to keep pace with the network ideally, but this is never going to be possible if people are expecting LRM to maintain the share it will have at it's peak, that's daft to expect. Just maintaining the share it has of the network at this moment would be a great result long term.

Lets speculate some more

lets say by December Lab_Rat has received all the miners currently expected  = 30 TH/s
This would produce 675 BTC * .25(management and reinvestment fund)= 168 BTC  or $23,000  
Lets say Lab_Rat reinvests 50% or $11,500 in to 2x Cointerra 2TH/s miners @$6000 each this would increase the mine by 4TH/s up to 34TH/s  
This would increase the MH/bond rate from 30,000 GH/s/50,000 B  = 0.6 GH/s to 34,000 GH/s/50,000 B = 0.68 GH/s
Lets say he also sells 5000 more bonds for .18 = 900 BTC or 126,000 USD and uses this to buy the same Cointerra miners
$126,000/$6000 = 21*2 TH/s = 42 TH/s add this to the current 30 TH = 72 000 GH/s  

72000/55000 = 1.3 gh/s per bond

TLDR - The hash rate per bond will go up (maybe)

* All the numbers above are speculative

The only way that can happen is if he can purchase more hashing power per dollar invested than the first round (normalizing for difficulty). Well, on the second set of bonds sells, that should be the case, considering [also] he should have a little less start up costs. Anyway, when you normalize for difficulty, things dilute down. If he did or didn't sell new bonds, it won't make much difference in general.

Personally, I don't care about actual hashrate per bond so much as how it relates to difficulty. I would be happy with 1kilohash/bond if it was difficulty of 1

Not soon, but it will happen (though there are some hilarious car-crash scenarios that are possible with that... )

That's true. But in my scenario, I added a generous instantaneous 50% reinvestment (with the Bitfury order) for a 50% higher hashrate at today's difficulty (technically from mid October when hardware might be received). That seems to me to be as good as, if not better, than a future higher hash rate at higher difficulty. I could be wrong, but don't see it unless $/GH drops faster than difficulty's 70%/month increase. The only reasonably obvious saving factor, that I see, will be much higher value for bitcoins... or difficulty stopping (not expecting that anytime soon).

I think you're missing to the point.

Say I have two apples, and two people come along, each with their own two apples. Then when the "extra hashing power[apples] is added to the total amount and this is divided between all the bonds sold [people at the apple party]" this doesn't result in expansion, it results in everyone still having two apples. So selling bonds may or may not increase the hashrate of existing bondholders.

In fact, due to the preorder madness phase that we're in, it actually detracts from the current hashrate/bond, at least temporarily, as all bonds instantly start paying dividends, but the hardware that can be bought with the capital raised takes time to arrive, and in the interim period the current bonds are therefore diluted by the new purchases.

This is, in fact, the reason that there are not unlimited (IPO) bonds on sale at this very moment, as the concern was that as soon as decent dividends started being paid that someone with deep pockets could buy so many bonds that existing shareholders would see a significant hit, and it would then be ages before the capital could be put in hashing action.

Will anyone buy more bonds? Depends on the the current bonds providing a good return and the price per bond.
Will it increase the current bonds?  Yes any extra hashing power is added to the total amount and this is divided between all the bonds sold.  The expansion has been part of the plan from the start.
Expanding is essential to the survival of the mine.  lab_Rat is aiming for a percentage of the hash rate and wants to maintain that percentage.  Without expanding the mine will produce less BTC every week until it is no longer profitable.

LabRat has ∞ bonds to sell to "increase the mine". The questions are: will anyone buy? will it increase the rate of prior bonds i.e. does it increase the mine proportionally? how should it be handled? is it even a good idea to expand?

To be clear: I don't have doubts in the operation, but I would question whether the issue of longevity is addressed in any way by simply stating that "there are more bonds to sell".

The hash rate per bond is after the power and pool fees have been taken out(plus you have postage and other expenses in the calculation).

I would also speculate that the reinvested funds will buy a lot more gh/$ than you can currently buy.  So by Jan 2014 the hash rate per bond could be more than the 500-700MH/s quoted.  This would mean you will need to re-adjust the calculation and in theory get a higher return.  Also lab_Rat still has 50,000 bonds to sell which again will increase the mine accordingly.

Buying and receiving Bitfury hardware mid-October (at retail cost) would ROI by mid January (assuming: +70% difficulty per month, and BTC=$140).
Basically operating at $20/GH

But I'm curious how long ROI will take with LRM's plan.

Keep in mind for the below, the first half of October you don't have equipment to mine with. So, deduct about half of October profit from the totals.

The lowest bond price has been BTC0.15
Lowest BTC has been is about $100 since inception of LRM.
That equates to $15/bond in a best case.
If MH/bond reaches 700MH, that is $21.5/GH (very best case).
That is the equivalent of buying an October Bitfury 400GH rig now for $8,600.
That would possibly have an ROI in a few months if you can account for some re-investment.
See here: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/84f74d8b86


But what about more realistic numbers of an average bond holder?...

A reasonable guess for average bond price is maybe BTC0.18
Average BTC has been is about $125 since inception of LRM.
That equates to $22.5/bond in an realistic average case.
If MH/bond reaches 500MH, that equates to $22.5/500MH or $45/GH (realistic case).
That is the equivalent of buying an October Bitfury 400GH rig now for $18,000!
Plugging those numbers in here, and there is no ROI achievable without a re-investment that works:
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/47ff308a62

So, let's consider the re-investment strategy is at the best a 25% gain on hashrate at the start. What if we plug in a generous doubling of that with a 50% increase over the very starting hash rate in a supposed mid October hardware, by changing startgin rate from 400GH to 600GH per Bitfury rig at $18,000? It yields:
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/0b15e224f4

Still no ROI. What am I missing? Despite expecting some nice dividends next month, is LRM on a trajectory for long term loss?