Topic: [LABCOIN] IPO [BTCT.CO] - Details/FAQ and Discussion (ASIC dev/sales/mining) - page 645. (Read 1079974 times)

I think the probability of that is low. All I said is that you have to look at the possibility. You don't have to assume it's 100% certain.

The way to do it is, estimate the probability of various possible outcomes and how much money you'll make in those scenarios.

So let's say there are three possible outcomes:

1) Labcoin is a total fraud.  Let's say there's a 1% chance of this
2) The network is 1PH on November 1st and Labcoin has 0.05PH, or 5% of the network.
2) The network is 5PH on November 1st and Labcoin has 0.50PH, or 1% of the network.

And there is an equal likelihood of both 1 and 2, 49.5%.

Then what you do is calculate the expected value in each scenario and multiply it by the probability.  In possibility 1, the value is 0%.  In the other scenarios you assign a value to a network %. If we're going by the current ASICMiner valuation of 2.1 for 5% of the network (basing it off of with blockchain's estimate over the past 4 days) and 400k vs 10 million shares you get:

400k shares/10m shares * 2.1/5 = 0.0168 as an expected share price @ 1% of the network.
400k shares/10m shares * 2.1    = 0.084 as an expected share price @ 5% of the network.

Now, you multiply both those values by 0.49 and add to get 0.049BTC as the 'expected' share price with the given the above probability distribution.

But, obviously there are more possibilities then that.  To do a real analysis you'd need to take the probability distribution function of the network hashrate, the probability distribution of the likely hashrate and then take the double integral in order to integrate over the the 'surface' of that 2d vector space to find the expected value of Labcoin on November 1st.

But that's assuming that "the market" will consider Labcoin to be capable of keeping (at least) it's share of the market as good as they currently think ASICminer will.  We know the network will continue to grow and now we know that Labcoin plans on having about 0.2-0.3PH online by the end of the year.  But guessing the hashrate in January is even more difficult then guessing the hashrate in November.

So, it is really difficult to guess the price. And of course Labcoin won't have the 'history' of ASICMiner for another year or so in terms of being able to keep up with network growth, so it likely won't be priced as high (But, the price of ASICMiner is dropping as well)

Why would the people who have the necessary knowledge to produce the chip documentation need to actually produce that documentation in order to start mining? The documentation is mainly for third party developers producing their own boards to run LC's chips.

You're right, all that is rather odd AND I wouldn't even mind if they'd simply do what they said they'd do. They were going to lock up founder shares and offer proof they'd done so, but did not do this. Now we can only speculate on whether management still has any skin in the game or not.

I'm not selling, but I won't buy more till they start communicating and doing what they say they'll do. Vague promises about future hashes and a photo op at some future date only go so far.

You are gonna start mining in less than 1 week and you can not give us any info about your
chips. You can not be serious?

You are gonna start mining very soon and no you can not provide any real evidence. Seriously by now i would hope you
would have prototype running and would show us evidence.

I agree. Still no real proof they have developed anything, besides that chip, that could be anything.

No, that's not 'reasonable'.

 Possible, yes. 

But not a reasonable conclusion given what we've seen so far.

Thank you, N_S 

Let's see where this goes!

^"Worst reasonable case" is still LC being entirely fraudulent

When you're thinking about how to invest your money, it's a good idea to look at the 'worst reasonable case'.  I don't know for sure that we'll see 5-6PH.  But I definitely expect to see some number of PH before the end of November with HashFast, Cointerra, and all the other companies cranking out ASICs.

And the most important part, they are reporting no major obstacles to hitting their deadlines.

Here ya go:


And:

Ahh, could you link me?

Uhh so? Labcoin gave updates yesterday 

.004 - .005 once the 3-4TH is up

TheSwede75 is now online, for the record.
Edit: and gone.

Please panic 

The "vague updates" have said everything is on track.

If that's cause for you to panic, well...

Maybe you're just not cut out to make decisions for yourself.

I didn't say you "made claim" to that number, whatever that means. But you picked it for your argument, as a means of spreading FUD against LC.
I retorted, and I am right, which I see confirmed by your lack of actual response and drifting off into semantics.

I've made no claim to any "ridiculous 5-6PH number". My replies were following Ytterbium's post. Next time, check your facts better.

Luck.

First day after retarget, 25% difficulty increase already?