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Topic: LargeCoin Pricing Announced; Taking Pre-Orders - page 5. (Read 30323 times)

hero member
Activity: 489
Merit: 500
Immersionist
Just think, it only takes 500 of these (or 200 rig boxes) to match the current network hashrate of 10thash/s. With all the BFL rigboxes and LC C200s coming online in a few months, difficulty is about to explode. My previous calculation of 1 year breakeven at this lower price will be way off if difficulty explodes.

500 of these babies at $15k would be like 15% of the total Bitcoins in existence (or $7.5 million dolla) spent on this. My bet is that at least a few would have to resell their GPU mining rigs to make that jump, but yes, this will probably drive difficulty (along with all the new upcoming products from the known FPGA developers like ngzhang, Ztex, BFL, X6500 etc).

The only sure and low-risk way of making money with all this seems to be making your own mining hardware, let others pay for development and production, and then sell it to us crazy miners Wink (see BFL or this thread). Just kidding of course.

donator
Activity: 1654
Merit: 1351
Creator of Litecoin. Cryptocurrency enthusiast.
They just sent me an email that SIGNIFICANTLY MORE than 25 people have ordered one at $15,000 each, and they will honor all these [legally probably non-binding] commitments. So, you can give it a shot and try to order one on their order website. If it still says $15,000, chances are, you'll be in.

Just think, it only takes 500 of these (or 200 rig boxes) to match the current network hashrate of 10thash/s. With all the BFL rigboxes and LC C200s coming online in a few months, difficulty is about to explode. My previous calculation of 1 year breakeven at this lower price will be way off if difficulty explodes.
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
FPGA Mining LLC
Any info on the company?
Is the offer for $15k still valid?

They just sent me an email that SIGNIFICANTLY MORE than 25 people have ordered one at $15,000 each, and they will honor all these [legally probably non-binding] commitments. So, you can give it a shot and try to order one on their order website. If it still says $15,000, chances are, you'll be in.

If they can afford to do that, their profit margin must be well above 50% at the regular price...
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
Any info on the company?
Is the offer for $15k still valid?

They just sent me an email that SIGNIFICANTLY MORE than 25 people have ordered one at $15,000 each, and they will honor all these [legally probably non-binding] commitments. So, you can give it a shot and try to order one on their order website. If it still says $15,000, chances are, you'll be in.
legendary
Activity: 3472
Merit: 1722
Any info on the company?
Is the offer for $15k still valid?
donator
Activity: 1419
Merit: 1015
So you will make back your ฿3000 by around June of next year. Breakeven is ~10.5 months assuming no power costs and difficulty stays constant.

And price per BTC.

If this thing is real, price isn't going to stay put, a lot of GPU miners are going to switch, and the average miner willing to sell mined coin is going to decrease, at least temporarily. If demand for BTC remains the same, this means the price is going up.
vip
Activity: 166
Merit: 100
ttul when can we see a live demo and specs of the hardware and at what temperature is running and all every other info?

It only exist on paper at the moment.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1007
ttul when can we see a live demo and specs of the hardware and at what temperature is running and all every other info?
rjk
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
1ngldh
And now we also know that the cost to design that thing (sASIC), including cases, power, software, DRM, etc has to be below $375,000. If they need an investor I am available via PM Grin
You don't know that from the information presented here. It may very well be possible, but the first run doesn't necessarily have to break even or make a profit in order to proceed with more units.
hero member
Activity: 489
Merit: 500
Immersionist
Hmm, product announced for $30,000. After a few days you decide to give it away for $15,000 and therefore giving up $375,000 (25x$15k) because you listened to the people here on the forum and you want to build a trust base. Is this a joke?


If they were going to sell 0 units at the ridiculous price of $30K they really didn't give up anything (much less $375K).  Sure if they would have sold out anyways it would be stupid to lower the price.  Personally I don't think that was very likely.

Absolutely agree.

And now we also know that the cost to design that thing (sASIC), including cases, power, software, DRM, etc has to be below $375,000. If they need an investor I am available via PM Grin

Here is an idea. Let somebody pay for the $375k development cost and give them 25 units. Keep 75 or more by yourself and mine happily ever after with a free sASIC that you didn't have to pay for and nobody else will get. Even more evil clever would be if you build the thing with DRM, so that the 25 units are artificially limited to 20GH/s while yours have double the GH/s. Wouldn't that be something?

legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1007
I wonder when are we going to see more than 90 days warranty...
donator
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1079
Gerald Davis
Hmm, product announced for $30,000. After a few days you decide to give it away for $15,000 and therefore giving up $375,000 (25x$15k) because you listened to the people here on the forum and you want to build a trust base. Is this a joke?


If they were going to sell 0 units at the ridiculous price of $30K they really didn't give up anything (much less $375K).  Sure if they would have sold out anyways it would be stupid to lower the price.  Personally I don't think that was very likely.
donator
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
That's a lot of if's wogaut Wink
...
Whatever that C200 is, this will be interesting to watch.

Yes, lot's of if's indeed  Grin

Didn't mean to bash them, as a business they just present themselves so strangely that thoughts like these crossed my mind.

Definitely interesting to watch though.

I like FPGA/ASIC approaches a lot, they cut the waste, being designed especially for the task. Worked with PGAs myself back in the early days...

hero member
Activity: 489
Merit: 500
Immersionist
That's a lot of if's wogaut Wink

If I don't understand it wrong, they are not taking the customers money up front, so the only thing it would help them is getting a loan from the banks maybe after showing 25 escrow customers. But then why stop at 25? And if this has been worked out with the bank or another investor, you don't just decide to drop the price by $15k. It would only show them one thing, that you are total clown and best is not doing business with you. Wouldn't you agree?

I actually found that PDF on their web site very interesting a few weeks ago.

Interesting is also their estimation of 250 GH/s per rack using 5kWh power consumption they made back in Sep 2011. Now it's 4x the GH/s at 20% less power consumption (1 standard rack = 42U). They have been hard at work.

Whatever that C200 is, this will be interesting to watch.
donator
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
Hmm, product announced for $30,000. After a few days you decide to give it away for $15,000 and therefore giving up $375,000 (25x$15k) because you listened to the people here on the forum and you want to build a trust base. Is this a joke?

I agree, that sounds really strange. I don't want to speculate on their intentions right now, but they do really crappy marketing and market analysis.

If you look at their website, there's just one page and a PDF article, that when reading it the first time, I thought many people here at the forum could have done a _much_ better job.

Then there's a product we have absolutely no information about, the 20GH/s @ 100W for a FPGA/ASIC system is something I did already come up in my daydreams under the shower or sitting on the pot. But that's about most we know about the product (ah yes, there's a license key, so they aspire confidence that the details have been worked on  Roll Eyes ).

And to my knowledge there's no info on the companies qualifications for that project.

I'm not saying they are out to scam us, no I actually believe they might be doing it in the best intentions.
However, just thinking about BFL, those guys were given a hard time eventhough they have much higher credentials to show, had a more believable target, more realistic specs, a better idea about the pricing, and a prototype.

But on the other hand, just thinking, if I created an ASIC that could perform with these specs, I might realize that I didn't have the cash to produce it on my own, keep it for myself and mine happily ever after. So I'd start a company for the sake of building that machine, have someone share costs and effort, and once that's covered stop selling (or sell it at a price that would also cover my mining profits) and focus on my own mining operation. So with that motivation, I wouldn't care about web page, marketing, or making a profit with selling the product. I would just be concerned with getting it off the ground, produce it and get mining.



hero member
Activity: 489
Merit: 500
Immersionist
Hmm, product announced for $30,000. After a few days you decide to give it away for $15,000 and therefore giving up $375,000 (25x$15k) because you listened to the people here on the forum and you want to build a trust base. Is this a joke?
donator
Activity: 1654
Merit: 1351
Creator of Litecoin. Cryptocurrency enthusiast.
When you sign up using the form, you don't put down the deposit right away. When they get back to you with the escrow detail, then they will ask you to put down the deposit. I assume at that point, they will let you know whether or not you are one of the first 25 and you can decide then if you actually want to go through with the order.
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 500
Awesome.

GPU miner will be killed.
donator
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
OK then, another Q&A item:

Q: Will I get my $2250.- deposit refunded if I am not able to get the initial reduced offer price?



^this

I've already seen it said that over 30 orders have been taken. If you are sure of being able to raise $15K but not sure of $30K - you'd be crazy to order.


It's not the concern of being able to raise the $30k vs. $15k.
ttul wrote, although there are already more than 25 requests he encourages people to sign up and get on a "waiting list" in case someone drops out.

So if I pay $2250.- to be on a waiting list and it turns out that I won't get the $15k deal then I want my deposit back. $30k are not economical; it takes already 10 months to break even with $15k.

And if ttul says anyone not getting into the $15k deal would automatically go into the $30k bracket, this is defacto like signing a contract for an unspecified price. As others have noted, this is 'bizarre', so I was compelled to ask this naive question.

But maybe I didn't understand something there...
donator
Activity: 1654
Merit: 1351
Creator of Litecoin. Cryptocurrency enthusiast.
When I do these kind of calculations, I try not to take price into consideration by comparing this miner with buying bitcoins. With $30k now, I can buy 6000 bitcoins today at the $5/btc price right now. According to http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator.php at current difficulty (1496978.59503), 20 GHash/s earns you ฿408.51. Let's also assume difficulty stays constant. So from July to December, you will earn ฿2043 (5 * ฿408.51), then mining reward halves and you only make ฿204.25 a month. So it will take an additional 19+ months (19 * ฿204.25) to make back the remaining ฿3957. So at least 24 months to breakeven.

If I had ฿6000 bitcoins today, would I use that to buy this miner? ROI is 24 months at the optimistic low end (where difficulty stays constant, 0% pool fees, and free electricity). If difficulty increases 1% a month, ROI increases to 30 months. At 2%, 39 months. At 3%, 64 months. At 4%, you would never make back your initial investment. The answer is an easy no. Warranty is only 90 days, yet you need at least 2 years to make back the money. If the hardware breaks down after a year, you are SOL.

Here's an updated calculation based on the updated price. The unit is guaranteed to deliver by 7/31/12 and the cost is $15,000 or ฿3000. Assuming difficulty is 1,496,979 and doesn't change and mining rewards halves on 12/10/12. And lastly assume no power cost.
MonthBitcoins Mined
08/12฿410
09/12฿410
10/12฿410
11/12฿410
12/12฿273
01/13฿205
02/13฿205
03/13฿205
04/13฿205
05/13฿205
06/13฿205
So you will make back your ฿3000 by around June of next year. Breakeven is ~10.5 months assuming no power costs and difficulty stays constant.
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