Topic: Lockdown easing - I'm back in the cafe - page 9. (Read 1549 times)

funny part is
you wanted a simple answer. so i dumbed it down to be simple

you finally got the answer in simple form
and now you want to cry that its dumbed down in simple form and now you wanna pick another day to pretend the numbers must be wrong because they are too simplified

in other words you dont want an answer. you just want to find something to complain about and if its not an answer you like. complain even more hoping you can find a reason to ignore it

well sorry to burst your bubble
i know you were hoping someone would stroke your ego and tell you today is end game and we are at 70% herd immunity today.. but we are not

yes i simplified my answer down. because as you even admit some people dont like the detailed sciency stuff.
but if your only rebuttle is to be a grammar nazi/math nazi. then i guess your missing the point

it was fun trying to find the correct level of explanation before you realised you wont get an answer that appeals to your desired outcome
but the reality of the situation is not end game stage

sooner you realise that covid is going to be around even next year. and that this summer was not the end game. the sooner you can realise the reality and not get shocked in the future

its not some secret. they have been making it public to expect multiple waves and to have restrictions relaxed and tightened and for people to just get used to social distancing for ther own good.

sorry if you dont like the answer. but you wanted it dumbed down

RE "read it", I read everything you wrote, and here's my response.

You're not going to get 70 or 140 weeks, forget that.

Get it?

Now consider the average person out there listening to all this unscientific FUD from sciencey types and here's their problem. They're being lied to by guys like you that won't spell it out. You could have answered my first post's question about mid- and end-term, but you ducked and dodged.

You want 70-140 weeks of this, but you(your group) won't tell them that.  You know you'd be rejected, you'd just be told to fuck off. Now this is a simple case of a crew of semi-intellectual wanna-be smart guys, but very limited in one field, thinking they can retain power for years, not months.

Get it?

I'll be happy to pick apart your math on another day, by the way. Don't think all those who don't agree with you are morons. Some have worked for years in computer modeling. You're going to have to go multi-variate on several dimensions of the problem to get anywhere near realism in your estimates.

You're on a crypto forum, DUHHHHH!

But we never had this problem with SARS or MERS or any number of diseases that were worse... except, possibly, on a small, local condition. Now that Trump is taking the controlling of the records out of the hands of the CDC, we will finally be getting clear info that Covid isn't much if any worse than any other flu.

Lockdowns - quarantining of healthy, asymptomatic people who haven't been known to have been in the presence of the sick - is unprecedented, and is causing unnecessary turmoil in loads of ways. Ultimately it will cause much more hospitalization of people than Covid, and 20 times the number of deaths because of the economic destruction it is causing.

read it

to not overwhelm hospitals. best case scenario is 140 weeks of 1% a fortnight spread. controlled by social distancing and people using common sense to not dry hump everyone they see, moshpit gather.spit on faces

if people want it in less time than 140 to get to 70% herd immunity. by reducing the viral load each person gets by actually using the common sense of social distancing. they might have a 5-8% of infected needing hospital

by not caring about social distancing more then 10% may need hospital because they are inhaling more viral load to battle

so
lets say people do take personal space serious. then we can have 2% a fortnight spread due to only 5% of those infected needing hospital (%5 of 2%=0.1% fortnight hospital need) and its at 70% spread in 70 weeks from the start.

if they continue to want to moshpit gather at protests. then expect longer then 140 weeks for 70% herd immunity because restrictions would be tightened to bring it below 1% a fortnight spread
few weeks of over 0.1% hospital need = restrictions tightened to get it back below that number and keeping the restrictions below for a couple months to get back the buffer.. repeat that a few times and it takes longer to get to 70% herd immunity


get it yet
(pre-empt stupidity
now i mentioned a possibility of 70 weeks instead of 140.. stupid people think they can go to night clubs and moshpit dryhump and spit on faces, do protests and not wear masks or social distance because someone mentioned 70 weeks.. ignoring the explanation about only 70 weeks IF people socially distance to avoid more sick needing hospital.)


...
they already looked at area's pre lockdown pre social distance and the hospitalisation rate was 16%-30%
when they looked at places that done socially distancing they seen a 8-12% hospitalisation rate
when the protests happened they seen the rate rise in those area's

and high in area's where people did congretate such as churches and planes and cruiseships had the high near 30% where as those socially distancing had 5-10% severity

EG
diamond princess study
'At the end of observation, 33 (32%) of 104 patients were asymptomatic, 43 (41%) had mild illness, and 28 (27%) had severe disease.'

You still don't get it, so let me help out.

END GAME WW2 / ALLIES EUROPE:

We take Berlin, then immediately move troops (A) to grab those rocket scientists, all their materials and spare rockets (B) to open up all those concentration camps (C) process all surrendered troops and separate out the war criminals

So here an end game is the reversion to NORMALCY. Are you refusing to say when and how that happens? Because if so, everyone can and should reject your opinion as completely ridiculous.

funny part is i see others spreading fear more. by shouting government imprisoning people and forcing vaccinations and stripping people of assets.

your 'indefinetly' question.. thats not a midgame question thats a 'tell me how the story ends..' endgame question
it also sounds like a paranoid conspiracy minded question..

my information is to clarify reality. and debunk conspiracy/paranoid peoples myths they listen to on youtube

..
look i know you want a fairy tale ending to be told to you so you can believe it is the end game now.
but we are still at only 5-10% spread meaning still only the start-midgame
i know many want to be told we are at 70%-100% immunity or that things will be normal at 70%-100% so they can pretend its 70-100 now and demand normality now.. but no
reality does not work like that
i get it if a government guy says a number to aim for in the future. certain people will pretend that number is todays number.. but thats their ignorance of reality.



as for possible endgames
1. if there was never any restrictions from the start. then the death count would be higher and the excess temporary emergency beds would have been needed.
but in this careless scenario of no restrictions then yea the endgame would have been 26 weeks from the beginning. but with millions of deaths. and overwhelming hospitals


2. but luckily people did take advice to distance themselves, staying home unless its a priority and such. which did curb the spread.
i know you might be denying the connection between the restrictions and the drop in spread/death. but its true. as shown by the rise again now the restrictions are relaxed

now if you do basic math of knowing that per populous there are 0.2% beds available
so knowing those sick enough to need hospital care are usually in hospital for 2 weeks and beds are needed for other illnesses too.. knowing that 10% of people need hospital care for covid
so for a safe 0.1% hospital intake of covid patients per fortnight. would be 1% herd spread per fortnight
meaning 140 weeks to get to 70% herd immunity..
with it taking longer then that time if restrictions too tight that the spread decreases below 1%. or the restrictions were too loose that it was over 1% but then restrictions would get tightened.
its tough to find the right balance. and probably best to expect and prepare for a second wave needing restrictions tightened. .. this is no threat or no scare. its a stop living in fairy land and then exploding when things suddenly change. and instead prepare and be ok with it and know that the spread is slower then expected and so any restriction tightenings can be seen a few weeks before implemented so that you can prepare

3. third endgame scenario is the one that sounds like it is thought up by paranoid weed smoking conspiracy theorists that think its about government control that wants to inprison people in coma's / their homes and take peoples assets by raiding their homes. and force them to have vaccines to win their freedom
sorry thats the weed paranoia fairy talking.
...
if people just realise the basic math and they accept the basic idea of possible waves of relaxing and tightening restrictions to not overwhelm hospitals. then they can find a right balance and plan for it.
its not a secret. its been public information since the beginning curb the peaks to avoid hospitals from being over whelemed

if people want to be ignorant and think by spitting on peoples faces they are helping people
then expect a more sudden rise and then sudden stronger lockdown restrictions that last longer. and cause more stress and anger
...
but hey. if you want to be careless and try getting in peoples personal space. thats your problem
smarter people would rather not get in peoples personal space so they can have atleast some kind of normal flow of movement and ability to do normal daily things. without a daily worry of no warning restrictions tightening. but a more relaxed slow warning thats then plannable and preventable if they just care for peoples personal space

take badeckers home state now that people have cooled off from the protests and stopped rubbing shoulders. and found a balance of social distancing the rise from the May relaxation of restrictions has found its peak.
lets hope idiots stick with a nice balance of social distancing and dont promote close proximity forced herding and spitting to guarantee spread. and just be happy with a moderate amount of flow of movement.
then they wont see restrictions being super tightened due to hospitals being overwhelmed

but right now badeckers home state is at ~90% capacity so it wont take much to tip it into the red. so just be ok with social distancing for now to let it stay below 100% capacity

..
and yes
as for the % of people that get sick enough to need hospital. im saying if people get in peoples personal space and force spread by spitting in peoples mouths a high viral load more then 10% of infected people will get sick enough to need hospital care meaning less than 1% of herd spread to balance out. meaning more restrictions..
however respecting personal space to low dose viral load spread would be less than 10% needing hospitals. meaning more then 1% a fortnight spread so that things can get to endgame a bit faster
.. its just basic math

His FUD is attempted placebo effect. His posts act like they are talking about one thing, but really are talking about something else.

Search on "Is placebo effect real?" The answer is that it is real. And not only is it real regarding medical trial studies with pills, but it is real regarding all kinds of suggestion. Placebo effect is essentially a subtle form of hypnotism.

As many as 33% of people are influenced by some form of placebo effect. So if franky1 can keep on talking, some people are going to believe his FUD. More than likely, he has started to believe it himself. If he were to show links where other people explain the stuff he says, things might be different. But so far, it is mostly FUD with the idea of using placebo effect on people.

All I've seen from you on this subject is spreading FUD - fear, uncertainty and doubt. "Chicken Little - the sky is falling" Right?

Really, nothing you've said about "mid-game" makes logical sense. Try to step back and look at what you yourself wrote.

I'm seeing a severe case of "mission creep" in various government policies. Started out, masks are restrictions for the "first wave." Then the emergency beds and hospitals weren't needed. Then the ventilators weren't needed. Then the death rate was an order of magnitude less than forecast. Then the governments seek to continue the policies...

Let's take another very simple question.

Should the "mid-game" - masks, some business closures and partial closures - continue indefinitely?

Yes or no.

If not, on what exact criteria should the mid game be terminated?

An inability to answer this really is just spreading FUD and is not scientific, let alone rational or good for the population.

crying about mid game. ignoring mid game. being idiots about mid game wont actually cause end game
the idiots need to really understand the mid game and live in the mid game
actually learn the reality of the position they are in

asking for fairytale endings wont make it happen today. so get into the reality of the current situation

Response to mid-game bluster already provided, bolded.

well just basic math and science show we are still in the first chapter. yes lazy people want to know how the story ends but not want to actually read the book.

problem is without even reading the mid part they wont get to the end game

i as a kid used to read a book type called 'choose your own adventure' where as you read it. it says 'if you want to turn left go to page 87 if you want to turn right go to page 60

and by reading the book and making choices in the middle. you get to change the ending.

there are multiple endings.
there is the idiots that want people to gather shoulder to shoulder and spit on each other.. sure fire way to overwhelm hospitals if that persists.

there are the smart ones that will low dose viral load by taking precautions where they stay at safe distance but still do daily stuff.. which might lead to another peak but many months later and with less volume of sick at one time(longer but safer)

and then there is the stay on full quarantine lockdown until vaccine. which would cause many other bad things and lengthen how long this saga goes on for(years)

its about finding the right balance and not trying to think the 'book 'game' is over and not wanting the ending to be now.
its about knowing what steps to take to reduce the risk to you or others while this thing progresses.

anyone thinking this is the time for end-game speaches is hugely ignorant to whats really happening in the real world. and needs to be youtubing less and maybe contacting their local statistics offices any actual doctors in the front line. and get some real results

Now, franky1. Covid has always been in the endgame chapter.

"But look at the statistics," you will say.

You still haven't researched how the statistics are a lie... but at best, extremely inconclusive. How can you prove it? By not doing a lockdown, and getting out there with other people.

How will this prove anything? Here's how.

Simply watch the hundreds of people falling to the sidewalk and dying all around you, like flies. There's loads of them, right? Lol. 

"But, but, but, the hospitals are full with Covid." The tests can't even come for-a-fact up to 50% proven to be working. There are studies showing that the tests are giving false positives and false negatives. And there are studies that show that the hospitals don't have that many sick people in them.

The Covid virus isn't doing that much damage. The hospitals trying to help people are doing more damage than the virus could think of doing, alone.

The pandemic is Covid in name only. When are you going to do the research and talk to the hands-on, everyday, professionals?

there are some countries that do lock it quite successfully, but some do it but it is not effective.
in fact, now it is just a matter of how each country plans according to the needs of that country, because there is no certainty that the country will have differences to determine whether lockdown is necessary.

the structure of each country is very able to distinguish whether lockdown is needed or not, in an island nation whose scope is quite large certainly lockdown is not recommended at all. perhaps by limiting the number of activities that allow transmission to occur. by restricting from red pandemic areas not to travel to the green regions, or vice versa. if you have to travel you must have information from the hospital that you are not corona sick.

All you did is repeat the mid-game. In repeating it, you use quite a few fear factors and emotionally laden arguments, maybe thinking they augment and reinforce your logic. They don't. They weaken it A LOT.

Can you or can you not articulate a clear, simple, executable end-game? Because there are a lot of people that can.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Q3PSISAZL8

These average, normal people have the solution. You don't. Like many medical obsessed medical know-it-alls, you're a mid-game. People are tired of your mid-game game. They are tired of the COVID-game. They are starting to distrust those who would continue the COVID-game indefinitely, and for good reason.

well unlike some idiots in this topic that think the covid is already in the endgame chapter it is not

just doing the math the amount of people infected is low. its not even at the mid game stage
i know idiots want to just lick each others faces and spit into peoples mouths to rush to midgame-end game. but what they keep being ignorant about is that the amount of people that need hospital care is higher than 'flu'

so by getting to endgame in a panic forced herd immunity like the idiots want(demanding peope protest and gather shoulder to shoulder. and spit on people pretending their spit is helpful). would cause even more deaths than just letting it spread slowly

having no beds means no treatment. =more deaths.

EG even if the death rate for intubated people due to covid is ~30% . 70% survival
without having beds/equipment to give treatment will be 100% death of those escalating to need cpap/vent because they simply wont get it.

so finding the best way to not have it spread too fast. but to allow people to do some form of socialising is the way forward..
but if people cant even take the responsibility for their own actions then ofcourse the government will step in and restrict things

...
so if people just try to stay at a distance and when ever tempted to get up close. just have a thought for that other person and limit their exposure to you. and you to them

having less viral load inhaled means your body has less of a battle to fight. meaning less risk of getting really sick. its the difference between getting slapped once in a bar fight. your hanging around wanting to get kicked and punched multiple times thinking your immortal.. try to not get into lengthy battles. and you will not hurt as much days later

ask yourself
do you NEED to be upclose to someone raising the risk level.. or do you just WANT to be upclose to someone.
do you NEED to expose yourself or do you just WANT to expose yourself

and then ask do you really need to expose yourself/other in a large most risk amount or can you have the thought to minimalise exposure. by just being smart for once

in short.. pick your battles. no point forcing a full on bar fight analogy if you can just be smart enough to know when to walk away with just a slap.
when you can take a planned and well thought out action you will reap the rewards from it

for the idiots that still wanna spit on people and force people to get shoulder to shoulder. you are helping no one.
if you really cared about low risk herd immunity you would actually be ok with low exposure low viral load wide distance exposure
..
yes it is a marathon and not a sprint. its about not having too much risk in such a small time. but instead low risk low exposure from safe distance / wearing a covering if upclose for extended time.
yes face coverings are only 20% for 1 wearer and 40% if both wearing it. but that 40% is 40% less to battle

In our country, the lockdown has been relaxed but experts say that breaking the lockdown has put thousands of people at risk of infection. They also felt that it was not possible to provide adequate treatment to deal with the situation. Therefore, the government has to allocate more in the medical sector. Therefore, there is an attempt to start various economic activities quickly by opening one factory and one shop or business establishment after another.

That's not an end game. Not at all. That's the mid-game. I understood all that quite well.

My question is what's the end game. The point where you say "back to normal."

The "end game" is the point where the COVID-game ceases.

I have encountered the thread you posted regarding your age. It is surprising that you are not afraid of the virus as your age group is vulnerable to this disease. No offense meant here. 

Seems that you don't know that it is the chiropractors that throw people, not doctors. And they never throw them straight. And especially not onto ventilators. There are always some angles and curves in the way they throw them. But even then, never onto ventilators.

Did you know that there are a few people (hundreds of thousands or millions) who die under a doctor's care, and in a hospital? So, there is something wrong somewhere along the line, right? Generally it has to be one of two possiblilities:
1. The doctor doesn't know the right procedure;
2. The doctor is simply a bad guy (except if she's a woman, that is).

Now, of course we hope that the doctor isn't bad. And we are assuming the doctor isn't bad. What that means is that the procedure was the wrong one. In most of the Covid ventilator cases, the procedure was wrong, even if it was the proper procedure. This means that the medical is entirely mixed up, and doing more damage than it is doing good.

And that is the entire point. I'll even go on to show you WHY the medical is entirely mixed up... assuming they are good people, who want their patients to get well. Here's the reason. The system of nature is way too complex compared with what the doctors have figure out. In other words, the medical is dumb (stupid). If they were smart - except for the money that they are making - they would just quit. Then fewer people would die, and more would get well.

If the medical quit, regarding Covid, far fewer people would have died, and would die in the future. But, can't quit. Too much money in it, right?

again to correct the things you dont know
doctors dont throw people straight onto ventilators

doctors try meds first. then cpap/bipap. but if the person does not get better then they escalate it to more invasive treatments.

you must be really stuck on your weird websites with myths if you still think that doctors just throw people straight onto ventilation

..
as for funding. not just the hospital accountants verify the treatments were necessary. but the insurance/government treasury accountants for healthcare also check
each treatment comes with its own diagnostic report that explains why the treatment was given. which is backed up by test results/scans and such
i know you want to circle back to your myth that doctors are given 10's of thousands for just writing a 5 letter word on a report.. but reality does not work that way

there are actual processes in place