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Topic: Long term OIL - page 53. (Read 91936 times)

legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
January 24, 2016, 11:13:09 AM
They have technology and they have estimated that we are right now around peak!
Also don't forget population of the world is rising, so we are not so far from COLD TURKEY

The world is moving forward right now. In another 20 years there will be alot of other fuel sources as energy instead of just oil. This could push the price of oil even lower than what it is right now. There is no denying to the fact that oil is pretty much dead due to its abundance as well as more people realizing on how another sources of energy needs to be used

Basic economics rules still apply, and to force out oil from the market, your "other fuel sources" should necessarily be cheaper than oil. What are these exactly?

And oil is not just "fuel"
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
January 24, 2016, 11:08:26 AM
They have technology and they have estimated that we are right now around peak!
Also don't forget population of the world is rising, so we are not so far from COLD TURKEY

The world is moving forward right now. In another 20 years there will be alot of other fuel sources as energy instead of just oil. This could push the price of oil even lower than what it is right now. There is no denying to the fact that oil is pretty much dead due to its abundance as well as more people realizing on how another sources of energy needs to be used
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1026
January 24, 2016, 10:15:35 AM
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/The-Peak-Oil-Story-We-Have-Been-Told-Is-Wrong.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdawM0PZskY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odCZpBPfFQk

I believe one day we must change our habits,
but when will happen oil peak or not we can only speculate..
Lot of misinformation you can find on internet!
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1115
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January 24, 2016, 09:58:14 AM
They have technology and they have estimated that we are right now around peak!
Also don't forget population of the world is rising, so we are not so far from COLD TURKEY

I'd call at least 50 years, and more likely 75-100, far from COLD TURKEY. But that's just me. I'm not prone to hysteria.
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
January 24, 2016, 09:56:46 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52Mx0_8YEtg

Who can tell us what is the truth today?
We have enormous manipulation, and mind controlling in whole world!
And if you find a truth it's hard to change anything.
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
January 24, 2016, 09:48:19 AM
Yes but what ever they told  us, it is some kind of truth and they can manipulate with those facts. One day price of oil will jump enormously no matter if this is truth or not!
They telling us lies about co2 and we will pay every breath we take!
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
January 24, 2016, 08:46:38 AM
They have technology and they have estimated that we are right now around peak!
Also don't forget population of the world is rising, so we are not so far from COLD TURKEY

"They" don't even know where oil comes from, whether it is abiotic (i.e. formed by inorganic means) or came about through the decomposition of dead organisms, lol 
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
January 24, 2016, 06:14:19 AM
They have technology and they have estimated that we are right now around peak!
Also don't forget population of the world is rising, so we are not so far from COLD TURKEY
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
January 23, 2016, 04:55:53 PM


https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2010/01/13/7200/oil-dependence-is-a-dangerous-habit/
If they are not lying you can see future of oil use also price..
This is horrific scenario for our World Cold Turkey will be disaster..


Won't exactly be cold turkey. The graph looks dramatic, but the drop off spans 50+ years.

The graph makes no sense absolutely. How could they ever extrapolate future discoveries after 2020? A quick sanity check won't hurt, as always
legendary
Activity: 2044
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January 23, 2016, 04:39:45 PM


https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2010/01/13/7200/oil-dependence-is-a-dangerous-habit/
If they are not lying you can see future of oil use also price..
This is horrific scenario for our World Cold Turkey will be disaster..


Won't exactly be cold turkey. The graph looks dramatic, but the drop off spans 50+ years.
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
January 23, 2016, 06:31:50 AM


https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2010/01/13/7200/oil-dependence-is-a-dangerous-habit/
If they are not lying you can see future of oil use also price..
This is horrific scenario for our World Cold Turkey will be disaster..
legendary
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1006
January 22, 2016, 11:25:39 PM
Oil will rise to 180


When post was made price for UK oil was 36.55


Targets:
Short term 20-25
Long term 180


Long term prediction could be fullfiled between 2017-2019



I sure hope you're right. Here in Canada our dollar is pretty much handcuffed to the price of oil, and our dollar is tanking hard.
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1115
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January 22, 2016, 11:23:37 PM
For those who was asking how oil investing works..

#From the journal #
It's great time to invest in to oil. Why? There is no risk involved and also will give a great return.
WHY
I'm about to buy a specific amount of barels when price will reach right point.

I have $11k at a bank acc, which at price $20/b allows me to go long for 500 barels. That's also is a leverage 1:1*
(Money managment): Position based on the fact that price will never fall under $1/b ("haha")

When price wil reach predicted $180 I will earn difference of $160, which means $160 x b500 = $80k

Theoreticaly costs will be from $100 to $2400 as a broker fees.

And then just pay %25 in taxes.

Your broker (if not very very good one Wink ) will ask you for a margin, a sum which will support your 500 barrels position. A sum of $800 will be enought. Interesting. Some "brokers" dont asks for a margin , trader pays loses after, ussualy, in 24 hours. And trader can just give an order to buy/sell for  ANY ammount position, of oil barels for exemple. That's how people trade at so called "pits" on big exchanges.

That how works this great, non risk involved trading, this "price circle" hapens just once in "very long time".
Dont miss this time Wink
DOnt hestitate to pm if any more questions occurs.  

*in theory, of course 1:1 leverage technicaly isnt an leverage at all.
But that would be 1:14 leverage to the margin ($800)

The problem with this example is you can't just buy oil, hold it until it's expensive again, and then easily sell it. If you were buying physical oil, you would have to pay someone to store it for you, because they're not going to do it for free, and you're not going to pay to have oil shipped to you and store it yourself. So you're relegated to buying oil futures. Except oil futures aren't like securities that you can hold forever. Oil futures have expiration dates and you either have to unload them before the expiration date, or take physical delivery of the oil underlying the contract, which brings you back to the problem of storing physical oil.

So your example ignores the complexities of buying oil as it is anything but a sure profit. If it was so easy, all the energy traders would be buying oil so fast for that sure profit that we'd hardly have a collapsing price at all.
hero member
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January 22, 2016, 05:08:15 PM
Oil is so hard to store. We probably won't live long enough to see its reserves depleted. What if in the next 20 years people switch to electric cars? What about fuel made of rape oil and similar stuff?

There is almost unlimited oil reserve. It depend on the price of oil. If the price is high, more oil will be found.
I have to add that the other important variable is the price of green energies, if it decreases then oil consumption will decrease too.
sr. member
Activity: 2268
Merit: 275
January 22, 2016, 04:19:08 AM
Oil is so hard to store. We probably won't live long enough to see its reserves depleted. What if in the next 20 years people switch to electric cars? What about fuel made of rape oil and similar stuff?

There is almost unlimited oil reserve. It depend on the price of oil. If the price is high, more oil will be found.
legendary
Activity: 2478
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January 21, 2016, 04:57:03 PM
Oil is so hard to store. We probably won't live long enough to see its reserves depleted. What if in the next 20 years people switch to electric cars? What about fuel made of rape oil and similar stuff?
hero member
Activity: 826
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January 21, 2016, 04:46:00 PM
The Oil industry has seen better days. We are now watching an industry shift. The electricity industry is growing and surpassing the Oil industry. It will be extremelly important to leave the Oil has our preferred fuel if we want to decrease our polution levels
Yes, some weeks ago some important decisions was made in France for decreasing pollution and so we should not expect much increase in oil price in future.
hero member
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January 21, 2016, 04:44:34 PM
The Oil industry has seen better days. We are now watching an industry shift. The electricity industry is growing and surpassing the Oil industry. It will be extremelly important to leave the Oil has our preferred fuel if we want to decrease our polution levels

Electricity is much more economical than gasoline to run automobiles. But the issue is that the Lithium batteries, used to store electricity are very expensive. And the Lithium reserves around the world are fast depleting as well. If the technology can progress on this sector, then it might become possible to completely replace gasoline for running the automobiles.
Nowadays electricity is not economical neither for auto owners nor for auto manufacturers. But to prevent pollution we can use them and trends suggest it will be used much more and oil consumption will decreases.
legendary
Activity: 3318
Merit: 1128
January 21, 2016, 02:42:30 PM
The Oil industry has seen better days. We are now watching an industry shift. The electricity industry is growing and surpassing the Oil industry. It will be extremelly important to leave the Oil has our preferred fuel if we want to decrease our polution levels

Electricity is much more economical than gasoline to run automobiles. But the issue is that the Lithium batteries, used to store electricity are very expensive. And the Lithium reserves around the world are fast depleting as well. If the technology can progress on this sector, then it might become possible to completely replace gasoline for running the automobiles.

Yes the electricity is more economical than gasoline to run automobiles and the depletion of oil is more faster that the depletion of lithium as lithium require only one time purchasing and can be recycled. Also through solar panel, the automobile driving becomes free of cost.
member
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January 21, 2016, 12:00:33 PM
What do you mean by "long term"? For decades, yes. For centuries, probably a lot less as a fuel, although for airplanes it might still make sense.
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