Topic: Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A! - page 31. (Read 85774 times)

Stopped Posting most of trades here, which tend to be itty bitty scalp trades.....just fucking jinxing myself I think, and also fucking with my mental capital, putting seeds of distraction in my head that don't need to be there.

Instead, I shall post larger position trades here, and/or what I think is going down with the market, and if you would kindly scroll up, I think you will notice that a chart entitled...'The Party is Over', when Bitcoin was still up at $740....so fuck you, quite frankly....never seen you call the correction at any point....au contraire, you were still screaming MOOON at $750....and therefore it surprises me now that you are posting graphics showing that u 'sold the highs and bought the lows'...sure...u may have done..with a tiny portion of your position, but overall, the net worth of your long has cratered in value since yesterday....



...btw...here is latest trade of mine:




Target coming in, in 3, 2, 1.......


Update:

The problem is, you're trying to act in an authority figure position on the Bitcoin markets, but I'm making 10x higher returns doing the exact opposite of your trades.  I get it, you've given the disclaimer of "I am a horrible trader" before, but you can't post charts for random noobs to look at and lose their life savings if the success rate of those charts is like 3%.  It's like you're lacing cookies with rat poison and placing them on the ground for people to pick up and die on purpose.  

Is that the actual purpose of this thread?  Do you take the opposite position of what you post?  I've seen plenty of people that do that before, which is why I started posting screenshots of my trades so people know I'm not a liar trying to scam them.

Hooray for you....

But with all due respects, anyone can sit and cut n paste certain position changes and post them as glittering successful trades.

Are you joking?  My Bitcoin holding is up 250%+ (or fiat up 360%+ take your pick - I converted all winnings to BTC) since the start of this thread.  I'm doing him a favor by posting here.  If I wasn't posting, he probably would have shorted Bitcoin 8 times instead of 3 times and be down like -$100,000 right now.

Word to your mother:

Yeah, looks like me too.

Well, I was wrong.

This would only happen in the most extreme cases of financial collapse, if it's more like 2008 or the Great Depression than people will lose jobs and companies would go bankrupt and such, but the Internet and the power would not go down.      

Bitcoin would thrive in such a situation, and I think that's more likely than going back to the Stone Age.      

There have to be very big events for the Internet to be shut down, and even if that were to happen, we can find other ways to transact Bitcoin. We just use Internet for convenience but Bitcoin does not rely on it. It's dead easy to use other communication networks or even set up your own. And not all of them need massive technology or lots of power.

Thanks for saying so. One thing that I am discovering big style, through seeing the massively improved success rate in my 'paper trades', is the extent to which emotions affect trading efficiency. Whether they be from the pressure the market puts u under, or from 'allegiances' to any opinion that you have put out, and feel the need to defend. Some people just have that cool, calm, and collective thing about them and that is what it takes above all else to be an effective trader....people who oculd walk through an airport carrying a kilo of cocaine in their sack, without so much as blinking an eyelid, are the people who would make shit hot traders....them and Aspergers patients, who naturally devoid of 'illogical' emotions.

Don't know how I am going to get around this conundrum...perhaps just reduce bet sizes to meangingless amounts, and slowly ramp them up over time.



Gann is rather esoteric to say the least....but I will tell you what...it is a habit of throwing up some pretty interesting levels....

Check these out on Gold for the past 16-17 years:




If u know the rules of Gann, you will see lots of frankly stunning shit going on. Sure, hindsight is 20/20, calling these scenarios to play out in advance is quite another. With that said, Going by what I see there, I say Gold is going to rocket going forward, but obviously, Mkt Buy gold now, and it could slip easily $100, barely even scratching. the long term setup going off that chart. Gann is best used as a 'roadmap', other than to provide trade entry and exit points.

Gann is rather esoteric to say the least....but I will tell you what...it is a habit of throwing up some pretty interesting levels....

Check these out on Gold for the past 16-17 years:

Matt, I just wanted to say that I appreciate the time you spend sharing your thoughts through this thread. You're clearly improving as a trader over time so don't pay attention to haters like r0ach. When someone constantly tries to put you down despite the fact that you haven't done anything to them it becomes obvious that they are dealing with their own personal issues and are just taking it out on you. I actually enjoy reading his posts when they are on topic but all the personal attack BS is completely unnecessary. One of the best ways to learn is through discussion with others and I must say I've learnt a thing or two from your thread including the importance of remaining logical and putting in the necessary work to improve. Cheers

Some of your lines will explain price movements:


 

new quote generated

Divergences have gone right to the back of the things that I look at for a trade setup after this rally.......divegences aren't for trending markets, unless u can pick a divergence out on a scale that places the trend within a 'range'.....

....but if I were to be looking for a position short here, based on that divergence, then now that the divergence (shown on chart) has confirmed, I would be looking for a pullback, which may see the MACD cross back inot positive territory, or may see the RSI go up to test the old high, and hopefully fail, without putting in another divergence (i.e. price taking out old high while RSI weakens).

...I had my eye on the 'break'...and bought at $475....sold at $525.......and just kind of pissed over my shoes in and out, ever since....the worst was me predicting $677 Bitcoin at upper $500s, but refusing to jump in until $540 38.2% retest....didn't come....this shit is the cause of much anxiety and frustration...still $1000 richer in fiat terms since the pump began (which is better than a kick in the teeth)...but am able to control a considerably smaller BTC position than I was before it, obviously.

Lol, thanks for telling me exactly what I wrote.  The point is that the bearish divergence already resolved itself with both price and the RSI making a lower high.  The hidden bullish divergence (signal of trend continuation) has not resolved itself yet.

But divergences aren't everything as we've seen this whole rally.  The trick to Bitcoin trading is actually child's play because the market gives you so many beautiful triangle consolidations.  Trade the triangle breaks = profit.  Stoploss at breakout point in case of a fakeout.  So the correct play was to buy at 455-465, and sell at around 755 when the triangle broke down.  It sounds easy in retrospect but it's exactly what I did so it must not be too hard.

"Buying the dips" or pullbacks is actually not the best strategy in a rally like this because the price never reaches your targets, until it blows past them as the bubble pops. 

Nope..I came piling in at $700.....with Bitcoin Kool-Aid foaming out of my mouth.....I was very lucky I never got my arse handed to me.....back then I never even knew what a MACD was, what I did have, was a tremendous streak of beginner's luck, buying in, selling, higher, buying back in lower, in-out, in-out........sold at top, bought back on first dip down $580........

.......sold again at top, had a plan to buy back at $400-$500 range, but people on here kept telling me I was delusional, and I listened to them, so moved my buy in tranches up to $550-$650 range, and in the morning when I awoke to see Bitcoin had hit $380, learned how inexperienced and bad a trader I actually was, as I nursed my 35 BTC position, struggling around sub $500, on the 5 minute charts. I saw a decesending triangle break down...so I sold! Went out for a walk, by the time I came back, Bitcoin was up at $550.......been pretty much all down hill from there, as I scrapped around with TA that I didn't really understand, getting run over way more often than I would win......last straw came for me on the Nov 2015, when I sold too early, FOMO bought back in upper $300s, with double my original stake, then despair sold it all down at $300...

....after that, I decided to learn to take courses and learn to trade.

So with your trading strategy with 20k you made only 15k. If you stepped in before the pump of 2013 at $100 per btc and emptied your bag at let`s say $800 you would make 140k (20x8-20). The lesson is that with btc it is always better to hold and not to trade with outdated fundamentals.

Bought $100M worth of Bitcoin in the past 5 weeks? Have they really?

How much of the exchange volume do you think is real, how much is smoke and mirrors, and of that that is actually real, how much do you think is one whale entity hand simply selling a bundle of Bitcoin with his left hand, and buying it with his right hand?

Around the time of the 2013 pump, I had done around $1 Million worth of business on Bitstamp, yet my capital always ranged on average, around $35K, (starting around $20K, getting up as high as $50k, before being somewhat destroyed). Do you see how this works?

The Australian auction was smaller than the FBI auctions, that much is true, 25K BTC v 50K BTC. But that is still a shit ton of BTC. If someone were to dump that amount with no intention of buying back lower, that would hammer the market, although with that said, I don't think the bidders intentions will be to dump, but rather the Bitcoin Cowboy Cartel (Chinese motherfuckers) intention was to make the bidders pay top dollar for their Bitcoin.....


Anyhow....came across this:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/20/all-that-glisters-is-bitcoin-now-as-safe-a-haven-as-gold.html

'Bitcoin, a safe haven asset just like gold"

lol!

Mainstream media telling Joe Public to FOMO buy into Bitcoin, right at the upper reaches of a Gann 1x8 defying megapump. These people are fucking sick! Why is the world so full of utter cunts?



No. There is massive bear divergence on the last few sequence of tops, confirmed by the RSI putting in M top structure. Furthermore, that red RSI line (the 'VIP Line'), has proven a critical level for the whole of the pump. Every single leg up, has involved a breach of that line, the only times we have had any sort of correction, has also involved a breach of that line in the opposite direction. I would watch that level like a hawk.

What you are calling 'massive bull divergence', is what they call 'hidden divergence'. I don't pay much attention to hidden divergence.

Here:




You can see that the lower time frame MAs are all rainbow crossing bearishly. The 120 min doing so for the first time since the whole pump began, the faster 4hr MAs doing so for the first time since the pump began. If/when there is a 4Hr bearish rainbow cross, then Bitcoin will be in line for a bit of nasty corrective action, after such a parabolic move up. By the time that happens however, it will be a little too late to sell. Shorters need to try and front run that rainbow cross, and timing that will not be easy. Shorting is a hell of a lot harder to do that long trades.

Mat, the RSI on your chart is showing massive hidden bull div.  Not saying 790 wasn't the top because level 1 thinking would suggest it is.  But selling needs to pick up in a big way soon to confirm.

This is not an auction pump. Only 18M worth of btc is up for auction. The market makers this time must have put in way over 100M in the last 5 weeks. At least!
This is just a break for a moment, you'll see some sideways action form on the daily and then 1 or 2 more sideways weekly candles then moonshot.
Get ready!